https://finance.yahoo.com/video/look-pe ... 19986.htmlSo we're seeing a consistent pattern of growth across industries. And those industries with the most room to run, which meant that they were the hardest hit by the pandemic are surging more in this report. And that's namely leisure and hospitality.
BRIAN SOZZI: Nela, a lot of jobs created in the month. Where's the wage increases? I didn't see it in this report.
NELA RICHARDSON: Well, you know, I'm not actually worried. That's the one no I'm not worried about, because it is those low wage jobs that were hardest hit. So at ADP, we saw that people who made under the minimum wage were impacted.
40% saw job loss. So we want those people back to work. And that's going to depress the overall wage gains, because lower wage jobs are coming back to the fold. Those leisure and hospitality jobs, the lion's share are going to be at the lower end of the income spectrum. That's OK, because those are the hardest hit industries.
So we're going to see that number go down. Same with the participation of-- or excuse me, the unemployment rate. We may see that go up. That's not going to be a bad indicator if it meant more people are coming into the jobs market, because they are lured by better opportunities and comforted by a safer work environment.
BRIAN CHEUNG: Hey, Nela. Brian Cheung here. An important point there on how the unemployment rate doesn't tell the whole story.
I was looking at permanent job losers and long-term unemployed, which kind of remain unchanged despite that headline gain on non-farm payrolls. So was there anything about this report that told you about the flows in and out of the labor market? Because that seems to imply it's mostly short-term layoffs that are coming back this time. But what are you seeing about who's coming back to work at this time?
NELA RICHARDSON: Yeah. That's what we're seeing. It's those temporary workers. And if we could remember, we're about a year since the pandemic hit since we first saw that big change and what had been a 50-year low in the unemployment rate.
If you go back with me to March of last year, the promise was always that these jobs were temporary layoff, that 80% of these jobs were temporary. But the longer the pandemic has been in place, the more likely that some of those temporary losses became permanent losses. And that's where things get scary in terms of the future of the jobs recovery and the future of these workers, because that's when we're starting to talk about permanent scarring in the labor market.
Because the longer you stay out, the harder it is to return, particularly for impacted groups like women, like minorities who are seeing higher rates of unemployment the longer these groups stay out of the labor market the more scarring that occurs in their opportunities to come back. So we're always going to be very-- and I will say here that's what the Fed is also going to be looking at, not just the overall unemployment rate. But as they've indicated and signaled even in this past expansion, they're looking at the disaffected groups by the jobs market.
They won't use the AI or technology or Robots word now but that is what is going on. Business are adjusting at lightning speed and by the time they acknowledge the force of AI, it will be too late for those that buried their heads in the sand.
