TMF and TLT (US Treasuries)

[Triplethought]

Hope is useless compared to hard facts and the trend

No matter how insane it gets, if the trend is towards a direction then that’s your guide.

I would have to agree with astute.

I have used Sol's suggested strategy of selling puts to get into all the plays he recommends. As was mentioned in the Tactical Investor video on their youtube channel, the best time to sell a put, is when a stock trades close to the price you are willing to pay for it. It takes a little bit of time but not that much. All you need is simple alert system and they are many free apps out there

Now my average cost is way better than it was in the past, sometimes I can get in for up to 30% lower if all three lots are deployed. The great thing is that I also get paid on the stocks that don't trade to the suggested entry points. I usually start selling puts when the stock is trading a few dollars away from the suggested entry


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y63zLaI7Qag

That's a good strategy assuming markets are trending positive overall and Sol's picks are solid. I did the same last year mostly with good results. small percentage returns but consistent. Yesterday I sold puts on INTC, AMD, and NVDA 1 year out. I normally wouldn't have done a year but my logic is these are very long term plays. Only 10% apr on the proceeds received against the cash potentially needed to buy the stock. Perhaps given the 4th quarter crash these were unwise plays but I figure I can buy them back if they trend up over the summer

[Budge]

Indeed, this is the proper mindset.

For TLT quarterly gives a potential support about 107.

Yeah, I really thought 124.37 was going to hold today. The momentum is incredible. Honestly Budge, on my quarterly, I can see a potential for mid 90's although I do see symmetry at 108.61. Pretty much where you're seeing support.

Chippermon, What do you think now? On my quarterly I'm now at $104.8.

[Yodean]

Quite possible capitulation low, selling climax on TLT. Positive divergences on RSI, MACDs, on dailies and weeklies. Rally on the way?

[Budge]

Quite possible capitulation low, selling climax on TLT. Positive divergences on RSI, MACDs, on dailies and weeklies. Rally on the way?

Have to say this got sucked down much faster than I expected, but have to disagree, I think more pain to come. This is what I'm looking at:

https://ibb.co/j4g4Zx4

TLT day. Under volume is ADX then MACD. ADX still in trend mode (ie going up), lower Bollinger Band will not hold it and MACD turning lower.

https://ibb.co/Pt830Xb

TLT week. ADX trending and MACD putting in another turn lower.

https://ibb.co/D8qh81Z

TLT month. Fugly, fugly, fugly. ADX has to turn from trending to trading and MACD still dropping.

https://ibb.co/tCfgrTH

Here's the quarter and where I get my potential low price. MACD still dropping but ADX is in trading mode therefore lower Bollinger will hold...for now.

[Yodean]

Have to say this got sucked down much faster than I expected, but have to disagree, I think more pain to come. This is what I'm looking at:

https://ibb.co/j4g4Zx4

TLT day. Under volume is ADX then MACD. ADX still in trend mode (ie going up), lower Bollinger Band will not hold it and MACD turning lower.

https://ibb.co/Pt830Xb

TLT week. ADX trending and MACD putting in another turn lower.

https://ibb.co/D8qh81Z

TLT month. Fugly, fugly, fugly. ADX has to turn from trending to trading and MACD still dropping.

https://ibb.co/tCfgrTH

Here's the quarter and where I get my potential low price. MACD still dropping but ADX is in trading mode therefore lower Bollinger will hold...for now.

Thanks for the charts. Interesting.

I'll ignore the dailies for the time being.

We've got another four days before the last weekly candlestick closes, and another 2.5 weeks before the last monthly and quarterly candles close. I suspect they'll look quite different at that time.

Call me an eternal optimist, but the volume on the most recent down bars appears to be decreasing, as well.

[chippermon]

For TLT quarterly gives a potential support about 107.

Yeah, I really thought 124.37 was going to hold today. The momentum is incredible. Honestly Budge, on my quarterly, I can see a potential for mid 90's although I do see symmetry at 108.61. Pretty much where you're seeing support.

Chippermon, What do you think now? On my quarterly I'm now at $104.8.

Hey Budge,
Sorry I didn't see this. I am not getting my alerts on subscribed forums anymore for about a week or more now. I think this happened to quite a few of us earlier this year so I have had to go hunting through the forums when I get the chance.

Well, it hit my 108.61 but that's a pretty thin wick on that candle on the monthly and it's been a weak leg down. It needs to retrace. If it does it will stick at 113.30-119.29. If it can't find enough liquidity there it may get to 126.07-130.04. But when looking at the weekly there does seem to be a healthy amount of liquidity at the lower level so 126-130 may come much later.

I still see 93.46 on my quarterly before it's said and done.

[bpcw]

Yeah, I really thought 124.37 was going to hold today. The momentum is incredible. Honestly Budge, on my quarterly, I can see a potential for mid 90's although I do see symmetry at 108.61. Pretty much where you're seeing support.

Chippermon, What do you think now? On my quarterly I'm now at $104.8.

Hey Budge,
Sorry I didn't see this. I am not getting my alerts on subscribed forums anymore for about a week or more now. I think this happened to quite a few of us earlier this year so I have had to go hunting through the forums when I get the chance.

Well, it hit my 108.61 but that's a pretty thin candle on the monthly and it's been a weak leg down. It needs to retrace. If it does it will stick at 113.30-119.29. If it can't find enough liquidity there it may get to 126.07-130.04. But when looking at the weekly there does seem to be a healthy amount of liquidity at the lower level so 126-130 may come much later.

I still see 93.46 on my quarterly before it's said and done.

I'm no longer getting email alerts too!

Sol???

[SOL]

We are working with our provider, each time a person is notified, it sends an email that goes through their system and it appears to them as some spam due to the number of emails being sent. We have notified them as we did before that we are not spamming anyone and that everyone has agreed to receive these notifications. You know the red tape, you have to speak Tom, dick and harry to get things resolved.

[bpcw]

We are working with our provider, each time a person is notified, it sends an email that goes through their system and it appears to them as some spam due to the number of emails being sent. We have notified them as we did before that we are not spamming anyone and that everyone has agreed to receive these notifications. You know the red tape, you have to speak Tom, dick and harry to get things resolved.

Thanks Sol, I know all about Tom, Dick and Harry, took me several days to sort something basic for a client recently, think some of them were Dick's!

[harryg]

We are working with our provider, each time a person is notified, it sends an email that goes through their system and it appears to them as some spam due to the number of emails being sent. We have notified them as we did before that we are not spamming anyone and that everyone has agreed to receive these notifications. You know the red tape, you have to speak Tom, dick and harry to get things resolved.

Thanks Sol, I know all about Tom, Dick and Harry, took me several days to sort something basic for a client recently, think some of them were Dick's!

I couldn't agree more, but on the whole the Harrys are OK.


Harry


https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog ... ation-bias

[Yodean]

*****

Long bond (U.S.) appears to be bottoming, with potential multi-month rally on the way, if history is any guide. With corresponding yields topping, the table is set for growth stocks to surprise to the upside.

[SOL]

An interim update will be posted online and then a more detailed one will be sent out after that.

Essentially, the markets have bottomed or are very close to doing so. While the initial upward will be jerky it will garner in traction and intensity. Bonds are expected to rally also. However, this rally will fail. A more intense top is expected toward the end of September to early October. The indices will mount strong rallies but almost all are expected to put in lower highs, which suggests that Dow 29K could be taken out with ease on the next downward leg. All asset classes will plunge during the next downward move with maybe a few exceptions. As a result, we will move at least 80% into cash if and possibly to 90% with 5 to 10% being allocated for short positions. The evidence is gathering that suggests the current pattern will resemble what took place from 1973 to 1974

[jonnyfrank]

So you think the bond market rally will fail as well?

[SOL]

So you think the bond market rally will fail as well?

In the long run, all Bear Markets or all massive downturns lead to the birth of new bull or super new trends. Like the current rally was and is still projected to fail, the same applies to bonds and most markets. So while rates will most likely rise a bit higher, the bond market will eventually put in a bottom and then embark on a long-term bull run.

Possible exceptions might be some Uranium plays, Precious metal plays and a few stocks here and there.

However, what over 90% (i think the number is now closer to 93% and rising) fails to understand is that the longer the correction or the bust cycle, the more intense the boom phase is. Remember how long the bull that started in 2009 lasted.

[Budge]

Yo,

I will let my girlfriend know about the "pocket rockets". She will be standing by with anticipation, lol.

Indeed, this is the proper mindset.

For TLT quarterly gives a potential support about 107.

My Quarterly chart says could hit 102/103. Monthly showing it's broken through 200 month MA.