TMF and TLT (US Treasuries)

[jonnyfrank]

Any thoughts or insights on these holdings? I know TMF is a leveraged ETF, therefore more volatile. I am looking mostly for thoughts regarding the current bond market and where it might be heading.

[Yodean]

Any thoughts or insights on these holdings? I know TMF is a leveraged ETF, therefore more volatile. I am looking mostly for thoughts regarding the current bond market and where it might be heading.

My 2c, not financial advice: TMF, TLT heavily oversold, strong bottoming pattern, tremendous upside asymmetry, but may have to wait until late Q3 or Q4 or so ... U.S. bonds at this point in the cycle should be bought for the potential for capital appreciation, not yield. Disclosure: have recently started accumulating TLT on almost every dip. Also purchased my 1st lot of TMF today.

[Triplethought]

Any thoughts or insights on these holdings? I know TMF is a leveraged ETF, therefore more volatile. I am looking mostly for thoughts regarding the current bond market and where it might be heading.

My 2c, not financial advice: TMF, TLT heavily oversold, strong bottoming pattern, tremendous upside asymmetry, but may have to wait until late Q3 or Q4 or so ... U.S. bonds at this point in the cycle should be bought for the potential for capital appreciation, not yield. Disclosure: have recently started accumulating TLT on almost every dip. Also purchased my 1st lot of TMF today.

Damn it. Now I have to sell TLT

[Triplethought]

But seriously with a prediction of 20 year treasury at 2.31% In November why not wait for this buy until the summer?

I guess we don't know when the stock did will hit. I think it will be another black swan event. Maybe China related.

[SOL]

Any thoughts or insights on these holdings? I know TMF is a leveraged ETF, therefore more volatile. I am looking mostly for thoughts regarding the current bond market and where it might be heading.

My 2c, not financial advice: TMF, TLT heavily oversold, strong bottoming pattern, tremendous upside asymmetry, but may have to wait until late Q3 or Q4 or so ... U.S. bonds at this point in the cycle should be bought for the potential for capital appreciation, not yield. Disclosure: have recently started accumulating TLT on almost every dip. Also purchased my 1st lot of TMF today.

Damn it. Now I have to sell TLT

Yodean will view this as a signal to load up lol

[bpcw]

My 2c, not financial advice: TMF, TLT heavily oversold, strong bottoming pattern, tremendous upside asymmetry, but may have to wait until late Q3 or Q4 or so ... U.S. bonds at this point in the cycle should be bought for the potential for capital appreciation, not yield. Disclosure: have recently started accumulating TLT on almost every dip. Also purchased my 1st lot of TMF today.

Damn it. Now I have to sell TLT

Yodean will view this as a signal to load up lol

This is getting interesting/confusing, everyone is seeing everyone else as a contrarian indicator.

I'm going long chickens and short eggs, now let's see what them other guys do!

[SOL]

I think we will have to think about opening up a sentiment poll here and then use that data to compare against what the masses are doing and also to see if there is any predictable pattern that can be spotted when surveying TI members

[Yodean]

But seriously with a prediction of 20 year treasury at 2.31% In November why not wait for this buy until the summer?

Generally, no harm in waiting, so waiting until the summer is certainly not unreasonable, and may even be a good idea.

I view TLT as "delayed USD," in a sense, so since I've been bullish on USD - still am - and pattern analysis is quite favourable, I feel very comfortable going whole hog a bit on TLT-TMF.

Keep in mind I am comfortable swing-trading on my own, so when the position gets too big, I take some profits - the profits may be tiny, like 1% to 3%, but they do add up over time, and doing this de-risks the position, so if it drops more, I can accumulate more. Etc.

Also, since I'm pretty much over 100% invested in equities atm (>100% in the sense that I am playing with using generous amounts of margin), the TLT acts as a bit of an imperfect hedge.

Btw, if you want to propose any other fun $500 to $1000 USD bets, lmk ... let's do this, MOFO!

[Yodean]

I think we will have to think about opening up a sentiment poll here and then use that data to compare against what the masses are doing and also to see if there is any predictable pattern that can be spotted when surveying TI members

As mentioned in many past TIT publications, keeping a trading journal is extremely useful.

For those who just don't want to do that at the moment, another potentially illuminating exercise is to quickly read and go through all the posts in the MU and AITT forums around the period from the last week of February through the first few weeks of March.

This was the time period when the Nasdaq was making some interim lows ... good sentiment information may be gleaned, from reading the posts in this forum, as well as the AITT forum, around that time period.

Scan the posts not just for the information, but assess the tenor or tone (i.e. the posting sub's mood) of what is written.

Very instructive and even somewhat fun exercise ... lolol.

In the future, when the same types of posts start appearing, especially from similar subs, they would lend some credence to the equity markets bottoming. Etc.

This works at tops, too (i.e. reading posts from the November '21 period).

[Budge]

Any thoughts or insights on these holdings? I know TMF is a leveraged ETF, therefore more volatile. I am looking mostly for thoughts regarding the current bond market and where it might be heading.

My 2c, not financial advice: TMF, TLT heavily oversold, strong bottoming pattern, tremendous upside asymmetry, but may have to wait until late Q3 or Q4 or so ... U.S. bonds at this point in the cycle should be bought for the potential for capital appreciation, not yield. Disclosure: have recently started accumulating TLT on almost every dip. Also purchased my 1st lot of TMF today.

Damn it. Now I have to sell TLT

Think you're right, he's jinxed it. Hit 126.38 after hours.

Yodean, you have another dip to add but I think it could go lower still.

[Budge]

My 2c, not financial advice: TMF, TLT heavily oversold, strong bottoming pattern, tremendous upside asymmetry, but may have to wait until late Q3 or Q4 or so ... U.S. bonds at this point in the cycle should be bought for the potential for capital appreciation, not yield. Disclosure: have recently started accumulating TLT on almost every dip. Also purchased my 1st lot of TMF today.

Damn it. Now I have to sell TLT

Think you're right, he's jinxed it. Hit 126.38 after hours.

Yodean, you have another dip to add but I think it could go lower still.

My 5 min chart says it has to break 127, but looking at my day, week, month (DWM ) it looks bloody ugly.

[Yodean]

Yodean, you have another dip to add but I think it could go lower still.

Thanks, I tend to heed your TA advice - it's been quite good to date, based on my emergent A.I. system which scans these forums.

I'll see how TLT trades this morning, and maybe add a bit more near the close ... we'll see. So many other trades for me shaping up atm ...

[Budge]

Yodean, you have another dip to add but I think it could go lower still.

Thanks, I tend to heed your TA advice - it's been quite good to date, based on my emergent A.I. system which scans these forums.

I'll see how TLT trades this morning, and maybe add a bit more near the close ... we'll see. So many other trades for me shaping up atm ...

Not sure if I should say bon chance or break a leg

I have a bunch of stink bids in (ie low ball) and don't normally look at the markets/my positions until gone 10. Too much noise. Just happened to look at the forum early and saw the TLT discussion. I see it broke through 127 on 5 min chart so now we have some support. Looks good on 10min chart. Let's see if it breaks 127.57 on 15 min.

Having said that, it still looks fugly on DWM. Damn looks not good on Quarterly.

[Yodean]

*****

USD, TLT, TMF look GTG (good-to-go).

[jonnyfrank]

These are definitely getting hammered right now.