TMF and TLT (US Treasuries)

[Yodean]

These are definitely getting hammered right now.

Darkest before the Light, these falling daggers will turn into pocket rockets, soon enough, aye ...not financial advice.

[jonnyfrank]

Yo,

I will let my girlfriend know about the "pocket rockets". She will be standing by with anticipation, lol.

[Yodean]

Yo,

I will let my girlfriend know about the "pocket rockets". She will be standing by with anticipation, lol.

Indeed, this is the proper mindset.

[Budge]

Yo,

I will let my girlfriend know about the "pocket rockets". She will be standing by with anticipation, lol.

Indeed, this is the proper mindset.

For TLT quarterly gives a potential support about 107.

[chippermon]

Yo,

I will let my girlfriend know about the "pocket rockets". She will be standing by with anticipation, lol.

Indeed, this is the proper mindset.

For TLT quarterly gives a potential support about 107.

Yeah, I really thought 124.37 was going to hold today. The momentum is incredible. Honestly Budge, on my quarterly, I can see a potential for mid 90's although I do see symmetry at 108.61. Pretty much where you're seeing support.

[Yodean]

@chip, @Budge: boy, you guys are pretty hardcore ... quarterly charts. I rarely look at quarterlies, apart from the indices, USD, gold, silver, etc.

TLT-wise, my monthlies and weeklies suggest that we're testing pretty strong support around 120. As always, there could be that quick final spike lower (i.e. selling climax/crescendo), but apart from that, I think TLT is bottoming around these levels.

The 107-108 range, imo, becomes more likely if the Q4 Slaughter comes to pass, when there is a quick freeze in liquidity, and everything (and its stepmamas) go down for a period of time.

[Budge]

@chip, @Budge: boy, you guys are pretty hardcore ... quarterly charts. I rarely look at quarterlies, apart from the indices, USD, gold, silver, etc.

TLT-wise, my monthlies and weeklies suggest that we're testing pretty strong support around 120. As always, there could be that quick final spike lower (i.e. selling climax/crescendo), but apart from that, I think TLT is bottoming around these levels.

The 107-108 range, imo, becomes more likely if the Q4 Slaughter comes to pass, when there is a quick freeze in liquidity, and everything (and its stepmamas) go down for a period of time.

Q4S absolutely. I'm using quarterly as it's the only chart that gives me a number. Month and week show it's a falling knife but I cannot get a fix on the support level at the moment. Using Qly doesn't mean it gets there in one go. Plenty of time for it to pass through shorter-term cycles.

[Yodean]

*****

Other than the Fed, US commercial banks have been the biggest Treasury buyers since 2020. Is this the "smart money" accumulating on the dips, or just another Herd? I think prolly the former.

[Yodean]

*****

Very recently formed a Three River Morningstar Doji pattern (TRMD). By itself, like most TA indicators, doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot, but when combined with the current hate of long-dated U.S. bonds, as well as the insanely oversold state on dailies, weeklies, and monthlies, this TRMD pattern would support the case that TLT has likely bottomed, and consolidation at current levels with significant risk to the upside is the base case.

[Triplethought]

Very recently formed a Three River Morningstar Doji pattern (TRMD). By itself, like most TA indicators, doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot, but when combined with the current hate of long-dated U.S. bonds, as well as the insanely oversold state on dailies, weeklies, and monthlies, this TRMD pattern would support the case that TLT has likely bottomed, and consolidation at current levels with significant risk to the upside is the base case.

For your sake I hope so. You're pretty upside down on this turd so far.

[AstuteShift]

Slow and steady wins the race.

The trend is clear for negative rates, in the short term what the FED is doing is just smoke and mirror, before the masses get set up for a blood bath

[SOL]

Slow and steady wins the race.

The trend is clear for negative rates, in the short term what the FED is doing is just smoke and mirror, before the masses get set up for a blood bath

They played this game before suddenly things were made to look bad and they raised rates which put the dollar in the enviable position of finishing the race to the bottom last well at least amongst the currencies of the developed world. Now they are doing the same thing and very few countries with strong currencies will be able to match them and then suddenly they will lower rates. The rest of the world will be forced to go negative well before the US and that is the whole idea. Maintain the edge for the USD as long as possible.

[Yodean]

For your sake I hope so. You're pretty upside down on this turd so far.

Hope is a dirty word in my vocabulary, reserved for noobs in the investing world, as well as those who kneel at night and pray to an imaginary Entity for a better tomorrow.

Become Hopeless, and a glimmer of Truth may land on your shoulder and spit in your Third Eye.

Kept my TLT positions, but been adding to TMF on dips, to leverage this trade.

Who knows, might even get my first ever margin call in 19 years, lol, I don't even know how that works?!

Woohoo ... love these markets, pure chaos and volatility. Noobs will get menticided, something fierce ...

[AstuteShift]

Hope is useless compared to hard facts and the trend

No matter how insane it gets, if the trend is towards a direction then that’s your guide.

[Tobeornot]

Hope is useless compared to hard facts and the trend

No matter how insane it gets, if the trend is towards a direction then that’s your guide.

I would have to agree with astute.

I have used Sol's suggested strategy of selling puts to get into all the plays he recommends. As was mentioned in the Tactical Investor video on their youtube channel, the best time to sell a put, is when a stock trades close to the price you are willing to pay for it. It takes a little bit of time but not that much. All you need is simple alert system and they are many free apps out there

Now my average cost is way better than it was in the past, sometimes I can get in for up to 30% lower if all three lots are deployed. The great thing is that I also get paid on the stocks that don't trade to the suggested entry points. I usually start selling puts when the stock is trading a few dollars away from the suggested entry


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y63zLaI7Qag