Interim Market Update March 16, 2022

[stefk]

Welcome Agupta, the nasdaq has found a bottom, choose some good values from the MU, buy them and sell them in the fourth quarter, to make a lot of cash to buy again before the next historical bubble. Et voilà, c'est simple....

[bpcw]

I am fairly new to the group and had a question. Since we're expecting a big correction in Q4, will we be entering trades to play the downside?

I think Sol has alluded to the possibility of shorting but will probably be listed in bright red meaning high risk. We will have to keep an eye on the sentiment readings and only go short when bullish sentiment is at a high, geared ETFs will be very high risk and probably not advisable if new.

Having said all that I am expecting to go short the stock indexes and possibly a commodity or 2 with my spread betting account.

Sol really needs to answer this one from an official perspective though.

[agupta2432]

Thanks. That was my thought too. I am new to the group but not new to investing. I was also thinking to do something like SQQQ or SPY PUT leaps when bullish readings are high.

But again, curious to see what SOL's take is on this

[AstuteShift]

Thanks. That was my thought too. I am new to the group but not new to investing. I was also thinking to do something like SQQQ or SPY PUT leaps when bullish readings are high.

But again, curious to see what SOL's take is on this

Right now too early, puts are expensive. When bullish readings hit euphoria mode, puts will likely be very cheap

If the timing is right( this is never easy), then monster gains can be made.

However given that you’re new, don’t do options unless you like pain and being in battle. Not for newbies

[SOL]

Thanks. That was my thought too. I am new to the group but not new to investing. I was also thinking to do something like SQQQ or SPY PUT leaps when bullish readings are high.

But again, curious to see what SOL's take is on this

I think I spoke about this on another thread but I can't remember the thread at the moment. It's too early to even think about shorting the markets. I have a simple rule. I try to live every day like it's my last that way I appreciate everything in and out of the markets 10X more without letting it cloud my mind. When the time is right there will be plenty of time to act and if the signal is strong enough short trades will be issued via puts and Leveraged ETF's that short the top indices. However for now the last thing on my mind is shorting the market

[Centeron631]

Have read somewhere that buying best gold etf when the critical time comes beats buying put on the S&P 500 - cannot so far relocate the artical. Anyone some info on this? ofcourse both would have to be dumped at the right time too.

[bpcw]

Have read somewhere that buying best gold etf when the critical time comes beats buying put on the S&P 500 - cannot so far relocate the artical. Anyone some info on this? ofcourse both would have to be dumped at the right time too.

Think this is assuming that gold will go up if stocks crash/correct which is a big assumption, gold corrected some 15% during the covid correction and silver got smashed.

[Yodean]

Think this is assuming that gold will go up if stocks crash/correct which is a big assumption, gold corrected some 15% during the covid correction and silver got smashed.

During a general equity market crash, due to the liquidity squeeze (i.e. massive margin calls), gold and TLT generally goes down (like everything else), but then are almost always the first to go up.

For me, having invested and traded gold assets for close to two decades, the key is not to expect too much and to be really patient with gold. Overall, gold has been very profitable for me, when all is said and done, to this point. There's a reason why most central banks still hold significant amounts of gold reserves.

Besides the TIT entry points, I will once again start accumulating golden assets when gold drops below the $1870 - $1850 range, and the gold:silver ratio > 80.

[Centeron631]

Here is article from investopoedia on hedging in prep for falling market and makes suggestions beyond buying and selling puts at critical time frames:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... sp-500.asp

[Tobeornot]

SOL and team thank you for being a voice of sanity and logic in these times. Before the markets bottomed the crescendo regarding the market crashing kept getting worse. I just smiled and when my family and friends all started to sell I knew it was time to jump in and buy specially when TA refused to turn bearish

This article states that the markets mount a strong rebound after rebounding from bear market territory proving your point that crashes are buying opportunities.

The table below, which excludes periods when a correction turned into a bear market, maps out how the S&P 500 has tended to perform after exiting:



Based on data going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has seen a median gain of 11.5% a year after exiting correction, and average gain of nearly 14% — rising nearly 77% of the time. Median and average returns for shorter term time frames were also positive.

U.S. stocks stumbled early in the new year as the Federal Reserve signaled it would be more aggressive than previously expected in raising interest rates and otherwise tightening monetary policy in reaction to inflation running at a nearly 40-year high. The S&P 500 entered correction territory just ahead of Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine and set its closing low on March 8.

Stocks have subsequently bounced as the war continued and as the Fed has signaled it will move quickly and aggressively, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell opening the door to half percentage point rate increases in the future rather than quarter-point moves.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s-p-5 ... eid=yhoof2

[SOL]

SOL and team thank you for being a voice of sanity and logic in these times. Before the markets bottomed the crescendo regarding the market crashing kept getting worse. I just smiled and when my family and friends all started to sell I knew it was time to jump in and buy specially when TA refused to turn bearish

This article states that the markets mount a strong rebound after rebounding from bear market territory proving your point that crashes are buying opportunities.

The table below, which excludes periods when a correction turned into a bear market, maps out how the S&P 500 has tended to perform after exiting:



Based on data going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has seen a median gain of 11.5% a year after exiting correction, and average gain of nearly 14% — rising nearly 77% of the time. Median and average returns for shorter term time frames were also positive.

U.S. stocks stumbled early in the new year as the Federal Reserve signaled it would be more aggressive than previously expected in raising interest rates and otherwise tightening monetary policy in reaction to inflation running at a nearly 40-year high. The S&P 500 entered correction territory just ahead of Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine and set its closing low on March 8.

Stocks have subsequently bounced as the war continued and as the Fed has signaled it will move quickly and aggressively, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell opening the door to half percentage point rate increases in the future rather than quarter-point moves.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s-p-5 ... eid=yhoof2

You are welcome

Now for some comedy

https://giphy.com/gifs/snl-saturday-nig ... LbI9lDUndK

[jlhooter]

SOL and team thank you for being a voice of sanity and logic in these times. Before the markets bottomed the crescendo regarding the market crashing kept getting worse. I just smiled and when my family and friends all started to sell I knew it was time to jump in and buy specially when TA refused to turn bearish

This article states that the markets mount a strong rebound after rebounding from bear market territory proving your point that crashes are buying opportunities.

The table below, which excludes periods when a correction turned into a bear market, maps out how the S&P 500 has tended to perform after exiting:



Based on data going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has seen a median gain of 11.5% a year after exiting correction, and average gain of nearly 14% — rising nearly 77% of the time. Median and average returns for shorter term time frames were also positive.

U.S. stocks stumbled early in the new year as the Federal Reserve signaled it would be more aggressive than previously expected in raising interest rates and otherwise tightening monetary policy in reaction to inflation running at a nearly 40-year high. The S&P 500 entered correction territory just ahead of Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine and set its closing low on March 8.

Stocks have subsequently bounced as the war continued and as the Fed has signaled it will move quickly and aggressively, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell opening the door to half percentage point rate increases in the future rather than quarter-point moves.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s-p-5 ... eid=yhoof2

You are welcome

Now for some comedy

https://giphy.com/gifs/snl-saturday-nig ... LbI9lDUndK

Holy crap Sol, this video is so creepy I can't stop laughing. I needed that since my day sucked balls. I feel better now. Thanks.

[AstuteShift]

This is the 10 year yield, monthly chart. What’s interesting is that yields can rise to 35-37 ranges (3.5 to 3.7 percent) before topping out. Once it tops out then it’s likely to be in the 4th quarter of this year. This downtrend is monstrous, so all this nonsense that rates will go parabolic is mute point

[SOL]

Holy crap Sol, this video is so creepy I can't stop laughing. I needed that since my day sucked balls. I feel better now. Thanks.

Nothing brightens up a sour day like some shock funny therapy

[Yodean]

This is the 10 year yield, monthly chart. What’s interesting is that yields can rise to 35-37 ranges (3.5 to 3.7 percent) before topping out. Once it tops out then it’s likely to be in the 4th quarter of this year. This downtrend is monstrous, so all this nonsense that rates will go parabolic is mute point

Yeh, TLT should have a nice bull run at some point later this year. I have a hard time seeing 10y yields staying > 3% for very long, but a quick spike up is definitely possible. Yield curve flattening, inverting a bit as we speak.

In some ways, when the TIT recently issued a formal stop of 122 on the TLT play, it potentially represented the ultimate contrarian signal of all time - lolol - I've been buying some TLT on almost every dip since, like today.

We'll see if I go down in flames or fly to the moon wrt to this play ... lolol ...