Interim Update March 8, 2022

[loczkins]

v However, there is a good chance that Putin could strike Poland if they keep training mercs there.

Sol,
what do you mean by training mercs? I live here so would love to understand how u see Poland's situation

[SOL]

v However, there is a good chance that Putin could strike Poland if they keep training mercs there.

Sol,
what do you mean by training mercs? I live here so would love to understand how u see Poland's situation

Personally, I view Poland in a positive light. I have always enjoyed my stay there. When we post any view it's not based on our personal opinions but on what data we examine suggests/indicates. I should have added that Russians believe that Poland is training mercs there as there are some random reports posted suggesting this is taking place there. This with Poland's offer to send Mig 29's to Ukraine is being viewed in a negative light by Russia. I respond to several posts and sometimes I have to make my posts short due to time.

on a chilly Thursday morning, Povilas Limontas stood outside the gates of the Ukrainian embassy in Vilnius, waiting for someone to notice him. In his knapsack were a handful of documents and his old beret: proof that he had once served in the Lithuanian military. It took about 15 minutes, but finally, someone from inside the embassy came out, and opened the gate. Half an hour later, the 24-year-old bartender from Kaunas, Lithuania had a document with a QR code and instructions on where along the Polish border he should show up
https://time.com/6155670/foreign-fighte ... ne-europe/

Now Russian separatists in Ukraine accuse Britain of training Polish mercenaries in latest propaganda campaign amid warnings of 'false flag plot'

Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine have tried to draw Britain into their latest black propaganda claims.

Hoping to raise tensions in the area even further and sow disinformation, the separatists claimed that a group of Polish 'mercenary terrorists' trained by the UK had been spotted fighting alongside Ukrainian government forces.

Lt Col Eduard Basurin, a senior commander in the pro-Moscow breakaway group the Donbas People's Republic Militia claimed around 40 Polish-speaking mercenaries were spotted on the front line near Popansa, Luhansk.


'The presence of two armed assault groups of up to 20 fighters in mixed camouflage uniforms has been noted in the zone of the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade. During closer reconnaissance, it was established that they are speaking Polish,' a spokesman for Basurin said.

It is just the latest example of black propaganda in recent days, including several 'false flag' reports, any one of which could be used as a pretext for a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... aries.html

I am not stating the above stories are true, and that is really beside the point because, in the end, all that matter is if Party A can change Party B's perception. These stories are having an effect and it's this effect that could lead to something. So you combine some truth for example the offer of the Mig 29's with some lies and you creat a narrative that is powerful enough to trigger the emotion you desire or create an excuse that justifies whatever action one seeks to justify.

Information manipulation is a very powerful and dangerous tool. Sadly it's being terribly abused nowadays.

[loczkins]

v However, there is a good chance that Putin could strike Poland if they keep training mercs there.

Sol,
what do you mean by training mercs? I live here so would love to understand how u see Poland's situation

Personally, I view Poland in a positive light. I have always enjoyed my stay there. When we post any view it's not based on our personal opinions but on what data we examine suggests/indicates. I should have added that Russians believe that Poland is training mercs there as there are some random reports posted suggesting this is taking place there. This with Poland's offer to send Mig 29's to Ukraine is being viewed in a negative light by Russia. I respond to several posts and sometimes I have to make my posts short due to time.

on a chilly Thursday morning, Povilas Limontas stood outside the gates of the Ukrainian embassy in Vilnius, waiting for someone to notice him. In his knapsack were a handful of documents and his old beret: proof that he had once served in the Lithuanian military. It took about 15 minutes, but finally, someone from inside the embassy came out, and opened the gate. Half an hour later, the 24-year-old bartender from Kaunas, Lithuania had a document with a QR code and instructions on where along the Polish border he should show up
https://time.com/6155670/foreign-fighte ... ne-europe/

Now Russian separatists in Ukraine accuse Britain of training Polish mercenaries in latest propaganda campaign amid warnings of 'false flag plot'

Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine have tried to draw Britain into their latest black propaganda claims.

Hoping to raise tensions in the area even further and sow disinformation, the separatists claimed that a group of Polish 'mercenary terrorists' trained by the UK had been spotted fighting alongside Ukrainian government forces.

Lt Col Eduard Basurin, a senior commander in the pro-Moscow breakaway group the Donbas People's Republic Militia claimed around 40 Polish-speaking mercenaries were spotted on the front line near Popansa, Luhansk.


'The presence of two armed assault groups of up to 20 fighters in mixed camouflage uniforms has been noted in the zone of the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade. During closer reconnaissance, it was established that they are speaking Polish,' a spokesman for Basurin said.

It is just the latest example of black propaganda in recent days, including several 'false flag' reports, any one of which could be used as a pretext for a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... aries.html

I am not stating the above stories are true, and that is really beside the point because, in the end, all that matter is if Party A can change Party B's perception. These stories are having an effect and it's this effect that could lead to something. So you combine some truth for example the offer of the Mig 29's with some lies and you creat a narrative that is powerful enough to trigger the emotion you desire or create an excuse that justifies whatever action one seeks to justify.

Information manipulation is a very powerful and dangerous tool. Sadly it's being terribly abused nowadays.

thanks and understand, to my knowledge these are are lies (unless i am misinformed) especially about MIGs - in fact PL side offered these fighters to be used by US from Rammstein base...but agree, perception is reality...

[Triplethought]

Genuinely interested in your further thoughts on this Triplethought as I'm an IT guy looking after a number of clients!

It's funny I almost listed that scenario as an exception (Microsoft putting something in) but decided it was too far down the rabbit hole for this discussion.

[Yodean]

about MIGs - in fact PL side offered these fighters to be used by US from Rammstein base...but agree, perception is reality...

The Poland-U.S.-NATO MIG story is, to me, fairly easy to understand, from an "underlying narrative" perspective. Nobody really wants to fight the Russians mano a mano - so the Poles said they'll send some old jets to Ukraine, but through the _US_ base in Germany; so if the US agrees, it's basically the US declaring military (i.e. not just financial) action directly against Russia.

So, in response, the U.S. leaders, cowards that they are, says to Poland, nah, feel free to send your MIGS to Ukraine on your own, but not through an U.S. base. That way, it'll be Poland declaring military action on Russia, not the U.S.

Lmao. The U.S. specializes in the massive bombing of innocents and using radical groups in foreign countries to achieve its agendas.

Indeed, from a karmic cosmic perspective, it is perhaps time for payback.

I won't be shedding any tears, naturally.

[Budge]

about MIGs - in fact PL side offered these fighters to be used by US from Rammstein base...but agree, perception is reality...

The Poland-U.S.-NATO MIG story is, to me, fairly easy to understand, from an "underlying narrative" perspective. Nobody really wants to fight the Russians mano a mano - so the Poles said they'll send some old jets to Ukraine, but through the _US_ base in Germany; so if the US agrees, it's basically the US declaring military (i.e. not just financial) action directly against Russia.

So, in response, the U.S. leaders, cowards that they are, says to Poland, nah, feel free to send your MIGS to Ukraine on your own, but not through an U.S. base. That way, it'll be Poland declaring military action on Russia, not the U.S.

Lmao. The U.S. specializes in the massive bombing of innocents and using radical groups in foreign countries to achieve its agendas.

Indeed, from a karmic cosmic perspective, it is perhaps time for payback.

I won't be shedding any tears, naturally.

Biden administration's dirty hands are all over this. Wanted it to appear as it was Poland's idea. But the Poles (not trusting FJB, can't think why) turned the tables. Poland sensible not to give Vlad a blatant casus belli (did they learn from Danzig 1939? or was it a Vlad warning?). However, it does appear as they have been aiding Ukraine by acting as a gateway for arms and mercenaries.

[SOL]

about MIGs - in fact PL side offered these fighters to be used by US from Rammstein base...but agree, perception is reality...

The Poland-U.S.-NATO MIG story is, to me, fairly easy to understand, from an "underlying narrative" perspective. Nobody really wants to fight the Russians mano a mano - so the Poles said they'll send some old jets to Ukraine, but through the _US_ base in Germany; so if the US agrees, it's basically the US declaring military (i.e. not just financial) action directly against Russia.

So, in response, the U.S. leaders, cowards that they are, says to Poland, nah, feel free to send your MIGS to Ukraine on your own, but not through an U.S. base. That way, it'll be Poland declaring military action on Russia, not the U.S.

Lmao. The U.S. specializes in the massive bombing of innocents and using radical groups in foreign countries to achieve its agendas.

Indeed, from a karmic cosmic perspective, it is perhaps time for payback.

I won't be shedding any tears, naturally.

Biden administration's dirty hands are all over this. Wanted it to appear as it was Poland's idea. But the Poles (not trusting FJB, can't think why) turned the tables. Poland sensible not to give Vlad a blatant casus belli (did they learn from Danzig 1939? or was it a Vlad warning?). However, it does appear as they have been aiding Ukraine by acting as a gateway for arms and mercenaries.

Have as anyone noticed how much time you have to put in to determine if a story is valid or not. You have to look at it from multiple sources because if you just jump at it you could be fooled into believing a false narrative. and then you find out all the time you put into verifying whether the event was true or not was wasted as 90% won't believe you. They have already been swayed by the false narrative. To stay sane, its best to determine the narrative the masses are buying and don't try to change their mind for nowadays that is asking for real trouble. V

The more digitized the world becomes the easier it is for individuals to create a fake information bubble and immerse themselves into it. and once they are sold onto an idea nothing is going to make them see your point of view even if happens to be the correct one.

[AstuteShift]

This is why it’s important to remove all forms of social media.

Read headlines, investigate, document and track. Don’t trust just one source

Social media is a perfect weapon to en slave the populace and push narratives

[bpcw]

Genuinely interested in your further thoughts on this Triplethought as I'm an IT guy looking after a number of clients!

It's funny I almost listed that scenario as an exception (Microsoft putting something in) but decided it was too far down the rabbit hole for this discussion.

Down we go!

Thanks

[MarkD]

So I have been pondering a lot of things based upon the MUs over the past several weeks. Having lived through the inflation of the 1970s my perspective has presented me with several questions regarding how this little dollar drama will unfold and other impacts. The big change in the 70s was the closing of the gold window by the USA.

Dollar index is below and highlights several swings since the 1970s, both up and down.

https://ibb.co/kxQX6Wn

Inflation is shown below and it's impact during the period in question.

https://ibb.co/C0QJXS9

Misery Index was developed to indicate how difficult financially this period became for avergage citizens.

https://ibb.co/hK720Sb

I include the following to show there was a marked increase in the cost of money. This variable we untethered in the 1970s so I added it to ask myself what will happen going forward.

https://ibb.co/Lt9vr6G

Housing prices were notably flat throughout the 1970s. I will suggest the size and quality went down. Basement construction backpedaled down from 8 foot height to 7 foot. If memory is correct windows were much poorer in construction quality. Cheaper roofing shingles (thin) were used on new homes. Garage doors narrowed.

https://ibb.co/xHH5N23

So the basis of all this is what to expect when interest rates which went vertical in the 1970s are restrained by consumer, private, and gubmint debt? My first thought is that housing has to be an inflation hedge. But during the 1970s show that not to be true. Undoubtedly in a bipolar world if demand for dollars is cut in half that means consumer prices for everything have to soar, including food, fuel, clothing, durable goods, etc.

My guess is residential real estate is close to a ST top due to demand destruction and nearing the 2M in starts that has capped prices in the past. (note: I have an issue with imgbb atm and will post current housing stats later).

Just to add more speculation here is a chart of the $USD for it's entire history.

https://ibb.co/XVHtQc3

[Triplethought]

So I have been pondering a lot of things based upon the MUs over the past several weeks. Having lived through the inflation of the 1970s my perspective has presented me with several questions regarding how this little dollar drama will unfold and other impacts. The big change in the 70s was the closing of the gold window by the USA.

Dollar index is below and highlights several swings since the 1970s, both up and down.

https://ibb.co/m8Wk7nW

Inflation is shown below and it's impact during the period in question.

https://ibb.co/C0QJXS9

Misery Index was developed to indicate how difficult financially this period became for avergage citizens.

https://ibb.co/hK720Sb

I include the following to show there was a marked increase in the cost of money. This variable we untethered in the 1970s so I added it to ask myself what will happen going forward.

https://ibb.co/Lt9vr6G

Housing prices were notably flat throughout the 1970s. I will suggest the size and quality went down. Basement construction backpedaled down from 8 foot height to 7 foot. If memory is correct windows were much poorer in construction quality. Cheaper roofing shingles (thin) were used on new homes. Garage doors narrowed.

https://ibb.co/xHH5N23

So the basis of all this is what to expect when interest rates which went vertical in the 1970s are restrained by consumer, private, and gubmint debt? My first thought is that housing has to be an inflation hedge. But during the 1970s show that not to be true. Undoubtedly in a bipolar world if demand for dollars is cut in half that means consumer prices for everything have to soar, including food, fuel, clothing, durable goods, etc.

My guess is residential real estate is close to a ST top due to demand destruction and nearing the 2M in starts that has capped prices in the past. (note: I have an issue with imgbb atm and will post current housing stats later).

Just to add more speculation here is a chart of the $USD for it's entire history.

https://ibb.co/XVHtQc3

I wish your graphs were working. I have given this thought also. I think your wrong about housing. I think housing prices will grow at least 11% over the next year (decent inflation hedge) so I'm holding my rental houses. The reason it will be only 11% is because the FED will increase interest rates. I agree housing will be built smaller and cheaper. Most people will be in multi-family housing rather than separate homes. Eventually (5-10 years out) automation will drive housing prices down. Other than Warren Buffet I can't see any big players investing in building houses with robots. I agree that the average guy's misery index is about to increase due to higher prices, less credit availability. And yes, credit will cost more. I don't think we'll see 17% interest rates like we did in the 70s due to FED intervention. I borrowed a big chunk of money at 3.75% that I'm sitting on (Well not true I lent 1/3 of the money out at 12% interest so that I'm covering the cost of the money). My expectation is that cash will be king and there will be lots of "hard money" loan opportunities secured by real estate. But if not I'll plan to buy another business. I'd rather use the borrowed money to buy another lathe or computer and produce goods then sit on the cash during inflation

Clearly gold is finally moving up so that *may* be a hedge too... but I think housing is better if you have enough to buy a house. Gold and silver is far easier to buy in smaller quantities. I wish I had purchased Palladium when SOL said to. As I've posted here several times all U.S. citizens should buy their $10K allotment of ibonds (I now hold 10 10K ibonds using business entities and having bought 5 in 2021 and then 22).

On the business front I think the employers that are currently having a hard time hiring will suddenly find it easier within 3 years. I'm guessing we will have people pounding on the door for a job by 2025. Which means gig workers and people with unstable jobs should get stable jobs now and hold them for when the stagflation hits. All these people who refused to work during the pandemic are going to be the new poor.

I do worry about pensions and social security being reneged on or seized by corrupt politicians. There will be no great safe havens. They will "means test" my need for social security and tell me I don't qualify to receive it although I've paid into it my entire life. I'm pissed off just thinking about that.

I also am genuinely worried that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could trigger world war 3. Then all bets are off on what the economy will look like. If that happens we may see missles inside the lower 48 for the first time ever. Americans won't even know what to do about that.

[AstuteShift]

WW3 is likely to be a low probability since how can corrupt leaders rule without peasants and nothing but a wasteland?

Of course anything is possible, same with a meteor hitting earth and killing all of us.

Doomsday scenarios are all designed to alter your perception and rob your money. The masses are in full out panic mode and that means the opposite will occur. MP is time tested and proven.

[LoriPrecisely]

This is why it’s important to remove all forms of social media.

Read headlines, investigate, document and track. Don’t trust just one source

Social media is a perfect weapon to en slave the populace and push narratives

Social Media is where I find the most truth, in alternative media. I can usually find original source documents on social media also, something MSM will never have. I actually have several videos of people on the ground saying (in Ukranian language) the Ukranian military is shooting at its own people. I realize 2 things, I am trusting that the person who sent me the message is telling me the truth about what these people are saying, and secondly, these people are not being paid to say these things. I also have a video taken by a Ukranian resident of a Ukranian soldier laying a bottle of incendiary explosive on a kid's playground. I also have a source document that shows Ukraine was planning an offensive operation in the Donbass in March 2022. I understand what you are saying about researching and confirming, but most importantly, recognizing the source as being trustworthy, or not. U.S. mainstream media have proven they are not trustworthy. So, I have to get my information elsewhere. And, that starts with social media platforms, and then search to confirm. It has become very obvious that the U.S. has many bio-labs in Ukraine. We also know that the Biden's had some shady dealings going on there, with Hunter. And, under Obama, we displaced their president and inserted our puppet, the current president of Ukraine. One last thing, our corrupt gov't continual accused Trump and Russia of colluding. So, if the deep state hates Putin, you know there has to be a good reason. I have hope this will end with further elimination of the evil cabal.

[Yodean]

I can usually find original source documents on social media also, something MSM will never have. I actually have several videos of people on the ground saying (in Ukranian language) the Ukranian military is shooting at its own people. I also have a video taken by a Ukranian resident of a Ukranian soldier laying a bottle of incendiary explosive on a kid's playground. I also have a source document that shows Ukraine was planning an offensive operation in the Donbass in March 2022. I It has become very obvious that the U.S. has many bio-labs in Ukraine. We also know that the Biden's had some shady dealings going on there, with Hunter. And, under Obama, we displaced their president and inserted our puppet, the current president of Ukraine. One last thing, our corrupt gov't continual accused Trump and Russia of colluding.

Yeh, my suspicion is that some faction of the Ukrainian side (likely supported covertly by the DeepState) has performed and is performing "false flag" attacks on its own people - they work very well, generally - and want to bring NATO into this to fight Russia. False flag attacks are a variation of the "Problem-Reaction-Solution" paradigm, in a way.

To be fair, though, Vlad has probably done some similar things to the Chechnyans in the past, i.e. false flag attacks on Russians to justify killing the Chechnyan "terrorists," from what I remember. One woman's "terrorist" is another woman's "freedom fighter."

These world leader dudes are all Mafioso Chiefs, fighting it out. As usual, it's the innocents that suffer the most.

I just don't think it was great to piss off Russia. I know quite a few Russians in Toronto, they have a large community here (as do the Ukrainians) - believe me, you don't want to mess with the Russians - very, very bad idea.

[Yodean]

I wish your graphs were working. I have given this thought also. I think your wrong about housing. I think housing prices will grow at least 11% over the next year (decent inflation hedge) so I'm holding my rental houses. The reason it will be only 11% is because the FED will increase interest rates.

I also am genuinely worried that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could trigger world war 3. Then all bets are off on what the economy will look like. If that happens we may see missles inside the lower 48 for the first time ever. Americans won't even know what to do about that.

@YoungAnakin:

1) Housing's going down in Q4! Sell those toxic assets now!

2) CCP gains nothing from invading Taiwan militarily. "Soft invasion" has already occurred - Mainlanders living and working in Taiwan. I still have some "boots on the ground" in Formosa, native Taiwanese blood. Besides, CCP military sucks, the top levels of the CCP brass know it, and they want to preserve Taiwan's infrastructure. If you want to capture a beautiful woman who is already in your power, for all intents and purposes, you don't scar her face with acid or a knife before taking her. The woman in this case is Formosa.

'Sides, not that it means much, but the USSA promised, in some sort of formal treaty from what I remember, to defend Taiwan against military invasion. Xi is too smart to give the USSA an excuse to attack. Once again, keep an eye on the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) and the Yuan CBDC - these are the CCP's most potent weapons against the West.

3) Depends on what you mean by WW3. The Rothschilds don't want WW3 right now, so WW3 is not going to happen for a while.

The real Game of Thrones is the Game of Currencies.

USD vs. everything else. When the USD begins to crack definitively as the global reserve currency - this could take up to ten years - that's when your WW3 will truly begin.

4) #1.