pablo heman btc analysis

[Yodean]

Filled on what was, at the time, a very speculative limit order placed on ETH @ $2200 in November. Also, for my sins, some BTC at the same time.

BTC sub-20k is a significant possibility if and when the equity markets tank in Q3/Q4.

For now - short of a Black Swan or three - BTC, Skynet, and a few of the other Tech. Titans look set to lead the Nasdaq up in the February to May time window.

At this point, unsure if BTC will make ATHs this year. There is a pretty strong zone of support in the 28k - 32k range for BTC. As long as this zone holds, BTC will likely have some type of bull run ahead. If this zone breaks definitively to the downside for any length of time, look out below.

The U.S. government is apparently going to give some clarifications regarding cryptocurrency regulation in the near future, perhaps even as early as February or March - we'll see. Lots of volatility ahead.

In BTC's short 13-year history, the return following a 50% drawdown, on average, is 300% or so. BTC and ETH are both down about 50% from ATHs atm.

[Yodean]

[Investor87]

Not sure those will be the ones to focus on this year, but given the choice, your right it'll be AU. BTC futures looking sad. Weekly could drop to 36,120. GBTC on the monthly chart could hit $10.

I added to my crypto. holdings today, lmao, including COIN, which is a steal at < $200.

COIN made it all the way down to 166 or so. I bought a little close to that price. It jumped past 200 today. Thanks for the tip.

[AstuteShift]

Seems crypto is catching a bid, likely due to the NFL super bowl possibly releasing NFT commercials and the like. That could be a clear signal to get out while the going is good from a MP perspective. Buy the rumor, sell the news

[Yodean]

COIN made it all the way down to 166 or so. I bought a little close to that price. It jumped past 200 today. Thanks for the tip.

Don't thank me too early, lol. Anything crypto.-related is going to be volatile.

I've got a fairly large holding in COIN - it's one of those stocks in which I will always maintain some sort of HODL position, although I may swing-trade a portion off the top when it gets overheated.

COIN looks like it's going to be around a long time, with considerable "first-mover" advantage, and has its fingers in the evolving Metaverse trend, NFT trend, gaming trend, blockchain trend, etc. So whether BTC breaks 50k from here or drops below 30k, long-term I am quite bullish on COIN.

COIN also seems to quickly adapt to new regulations, which will be important in the coming months to years.

[Yodean]

Singapore has seen a tenfold increase in crypto-related investments last year worth $1.48 billion, up from $110 million in 2020, according to KPMG's Pulse of Fintech report.

As per the study, the city-state has long been recognized as a center of cryptocurrency activity, with over $1.48 billion in investment completed last year alone.

KPMG suggests that the increase is in part due to government efforts to stimulate the capital market, such as establishing a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) listing framework to position the country as a choice location where fast-growing firms and unicorns can go public.

This year, regulators are ramping up their efforts to regulate speculative digital assets. Even as authorities impose even more regulation, KPMG forecasts that Singapore's crypto investment will remain strong this year.

Per the KPMG report, the majority of cryptocurrency and blockchain investments last year were focused on software and underlying infrastructure rather than services.

The nascent sector made up a third of total fintech investment in Singapore, which rose to $3.94 billion last year as per KPMG.

KPMG also highlighted that Asia-Pacific's fintech investing hit a record high of $27.5 billion in 2021, with total funding surpassing $17.4 billion in the second half alone (compared to $11.5 billion in 2020). In 2021, venture capital funding rose to $19.6 billion from $11.5 billion in 2020.

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Fintech is expected to have a decent, maybe great, year or two. Methinks blockchain and some cryptos will be a part of that.

[Investor87]

COIN made it all the way down to 166 or so. I bought a little close to that price. It jumped past 200 today. Thanks for the tip.

Don't thank me too early, lol. Anything crypto.-related is going to be volatile.

I've got a fairly large holding in COIN - it's one of those stocks in which I will always maintain some sort of HODL position, although I may swing-trade a portion off the top when it gets overheated.

COIN looks like it's going to be around a long time, with considerable "first-mover" advantage, and has its fingers in the evolving Metaverse trend, NFT trend, gaming trend, blockchain trend, etc. So whether BTC breaks 50k from here or drops below 30k, long-term I am quite bullish on COIN.

COIN also seems to quickly adapt to new regulations, which will be important in the coming months to years.

I only bought one lot. I put a stop on it and will just hang on to it for a while.

[Yodean]

I only bought one lot. I put a stop on it and will just hang on to it for a while.

Fwiw, my models place COIN at a "fair" value of $275 or so, atm. So I don't plan to sell COIN below that price. I may de-risk my position and take minor profits on a small portion of my current holding at > $300, depending on how the chart looks, evolution of crypto. regulations, sentiment, etc.

[Triplethought]

I only bought one lot. I put a stop on it and will just hang on to it for a while.

Fwiw, my models place COIN at a "fair" value of $275 or so, atm. So I don't plan to sell COIN below that price. I may de-risk my position and take minor profits on a small portion of my current holding at > $300, depending on how the chart looks, evolution of crypto. regulations, sentiment, etc.

Humm, that means COIN is worth maybe $180. I might put a buy order in.

Grin.

[Yodean]

Humm, that means COIN is worth maybe $180. I might put a buy order in.

Grin.

Indeed, I am a bit of my own contrarian indicator. My average cost basis for my COIN position is $231 so I am not too concerned.

On another note, I was a little worried about you - you haven't posted at your regular frequency lately.

I assumed you were either really busy with your businesses, arguing with your current girlfriend, or dealing with a re-infection of the latest Coward-19 variant due to harmful effects on your immune system as a consequence of pathogenic priming induced by the jab.

Perhaps all three ...

[Triplethought]

Humm, that means COIN is worth maybe $180. I might put a buy order in.

Grin.

Indeed, I am a bit of my own contrarian indicator. My average cost basis for my COIN position is $231 so I am not too concerned.

On another note, I was a little worried about you - you haven't posted at your regular frequency lately.

I assumed you were either really busy with your businesses, arguing with your current girlfriend, or dealing with a re-infection of the latest Coward-19 variant due to harmful effects on your immune system as a consequence of pathogenic priming induced by the jab.

Perhaps all three ...

All 3. I got Shingles - an incredibly itchy and difficult thing to get and possibly due to lowered immune response since I had Covid. I had 1 jab for shingles in October but I failed to get the second. Anyone over 50 I'd recommend getting the jabs since shingles is MISERIBLE. Then My father passed away and have been navigating the estate trying to buy an older sister out of his business. As with many people who've never run a business she is under the impression that a)the business is worth more than it is b)it will run itself without my help and without the people there day to day being compensated. c) she questions whether the business is worth more shut down than running (watching too many wolf of wall street movies)

So I went to Hawaii for the week to recover from the shingles (it worked). Scuba dived with the turtles, did that crazy bike ride down the volcano, ate good food ($360 for two people for 1 dinner- holy cow). And argued with the GF that I wasn't looking at the bikinis on the beach (but I was).

[Yodean]

Race narrative entering crypto space ... should be interesting:

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February is Black History Month, and it’s worth recounting that cryptocurrency and blockchain technology have already had a significant impact on the African-American community.

Peoples of color own cryptocurrencies at consistently higher levels than white people, surveys show, while anecdotal evidence suggests crypto has also unleashed a wave of innovation and entrepreneurial energy in the Black community — from New York City’s new mayor converting his first paycheck into crypto to basketball star Kevin Durant launching a new special-purpose acquisition company to focus on cryptocurrencies and blockchain.

And all this may just be scratching the surface. “Blockchain has the potential to be a beacon of light in the story of Black economic empowerment,” Marco Lindsey, associate director of diversity, equity and inclusion at the University of California Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, told Cointelegraph.

It’s sometimes forgotten, after all, that 1.7 billion people globally remain unbanked, underbanked or lack access to traditional financial systems, Cleve Mesidor, public policy advisor at the Blockchain Association, told Cointelegraph. For this group, sometimes living in countries with high inflation and lacking confidence in their local fiat and central bank, cryptocurrency represents “economic empowerment and an opportunity for financial freedom.”

Frazier recalled that years ago, insurance companies wouldn’t provide insurance to Black people, especially in the U.S. South.

As noted, surveys reinforce the notion that crypto resonates with people who, for various reasons, have been excluded from the dominant economic system. A Harris poll last year found that 23% of African-Americans own cryptocurrency, for example, compared with only 11% of white Americans.

According to researchers from the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago, “the average cryptocurrency trader is under 40 (mean age is 38) and does not have a college degree (55 percent). Two-fifths of crypto traders are not white (44 percent), and 41 percent are women. Over one-third (35 percent) have household incomes under $60,000 annually.”

This user profile is a departure from that of the typical stocks-and-bonds investor, Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, told Roll Call. Crypto users tend to be younger and more likely to include Latinos or Black people. “This idea of bypassing the traditional financial institutions is quite intriguing for a segment of the population that’s largely not welcome in our traditional centralized finance,” Harvey said.

“African-American borrowers were charged significantly higher interest rates than whites. This caused many African Americans to lose trust in the traditional banking and investing system.”

Still, inclusion is not found uniformly through the cryptocurrency world. The software development area remains — to a significant degree — the province of white males, for instance.

“The predominately white male tech sector leans too heavily on nepotism to find new talent and often lacks creativity in imagining what a qualified candidate might look like.”

Many candidates of color have transferable skills and real-world experience that could greatly benefit an organization, Lindsey added, but “they are overlooked because they don’t fit the traditional mold.”

The African-American community has been actively engaged in the education challenge, according to Mesidor. “Over the last decade, it has been innovators of color in crypto that have launched education campaigns and built products and services to dismantle long-standing economic inequities in urban and rural areas here in America,” she continued. “The efforts of Black and Latinx industry leaders is the reason why crypto adoption in communities of color leads the nation by double digits.”

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https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-s ... rican-saga

[SOL]

February is Black History Month, and it’s worth recounting that cryptocurrency and blockchain technology have already had a significant impact on the African-American community.

Peoples of color own cryptocurrencies at consistently higher levels than white people, surveys show, while anecdotal evidence suggests crypto has also unleashed a wave of innovation and entrepreneurial energy in the Black community — from New York City’s new mayor converting his first paycheck into crypto to basketball star Kevin Durant launching a new special-purpose acquisition company to focus on cryptocurrencies and blockchain.

The African-American community has been actively engaged in the education challenge, according to Mesidor. “Over the last decade, it has been innovators of color in crypto that have launched education campaigns and built products and services to dismantle long-standing economic inequities in urban and rural areas here in America,” she continued. “The efforts of Black and Latinx industry leaders is the reason why crypto adoption in communities of color leads the nation by double digits.”

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https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-s ... rican-saga

Any investment that is made to appear to look like it can save anyone is doomed to fail. MP clearly indicates such stories usually tend to be a warning of an intermediate to longer-term top. It will probably be one of the main reasons why BTC will most likely plunge to new lows before surging to new highs. MP states that the markets are not made for the masses and this story seems to imply that Blockchain via cyrtpo could help empower the black community.

Btw BTC is incredibly ineffective when it comes to the speed at which transactions occur. If it was adopted as a mainstream form of payment, it might hours to days for your fast food order payment to go through. So you would have to order your pizza several days in advance

Blockchains can be slow and cumbersome

Once again due to their complexity and their encrypted, distributed nature, blockchain transactions can take a while to process, certainly compared to “traditional” payment systems such as cash or debit cards. Bitcoin transactions can take several hours to finalise, which means there are inherent problems in the idea that you will be able to use them to pay for a cup of coffee in your lunch hour, unless the vendor is willing to take on an element of risk. And wasn’t that something which the “trustless” nature of blockchains was expected to remove from the equation?

In theory the principle extends to blockchain networks which are used for something other than as a store of value, for example logging transactions or interactions in and IoT environment. These chains – really just computer files, after all – have the potential to become slow and unwieldy as they grow in size, and the number of computers accessing and writing to the network grows. Hopefully this is a problem which will be solved with advances in engineering and processing speeds, but at this point in time it remains a problem, nonetheless.

https://bernardmarr.com/the-5-big-probl ... -aware-of/


And then we have Quantum computing which could end blockchain

Blockchain consists of encrypted nodes connected on a chain, which currently makes it almost impossible to hack. The order of entries adheres to the blockchain protocol, which makes it counterfeit-resistant.

To successfully hack a blockchain, you would need to alter both the targeted block and all of the blocks connected. Blockchains are synced throughout a peer-to-peer network. In this type of system, there is no central point of failure for hackers to penetrate. For a hacker to have a chance of penetrating the network, they would need to simultaneously alter at least 51% of the blockchain.

Altering half of a blockchain seems impossible now, but the power of quantum computers could easily crack the system.

https://hackernoon.com/quantum-computin ... e4a9664720

In today’s technology landscape, the blockchain promises unbreakable data security, but that will all be undone as soon as quantum computers come on the scene. Blockchain security is based on mathematical puzzles that are incredibly difficult for even the best conventional computers to crack. One commonly used puzzle is to determine which two prime numbers have been multiplied together to create a new number, a challenge that gets nearly impossible as the numbers get bigger. In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor devised a way—called Shor’s algorithm—to quickly find a number’s prime factors and solve the puzzle. However, that algorithm requires a quantum computer to run

Possible solution is QKD but we all know nobody works on the solution until there is a big problem

Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) however takes advantage of the laws of quantum mechanics, allowing two parties exchanging secure data to detect whether a third party is attempting to eavesdrop on their exchange. Using quantum keys in conjunction with a blockchain network could be one way to help secure against attacks from both classical and quantum computers.

https://quantumxc.com/blog/quantum-comp ... n-save-it/

[Triplethought]

I found the Superbowl bitcoin ads yesterday interesting. It took me til half way thru the one with the multicolored bounding QR code to realize they wanted you to scan it with your phone. Only someone young enough and with their phone right at hand on the couch got that ad.

Some smart alec on twitter commented
"Gee you never see ads for real money".

Clearly the crypto guys are trying to push for momentum

[Yodean]

BTC is incredibly ineffective when it comes to the speed at which transactions occur. If it was adopted as a mainstream form of payment, it might hours to days for your fast food order payment to go through. So you would have to order your pizza several days in advance
And then we have Quantum computing which could end blockchain
Possible solution is QKD but we all know nobody works on the solution until there is a big problem

These potential issues with BTC have been known by the crypto community for quite a while.

1) BTC is ineffective as a currency of exchange. Somewhat true, but narrative usually trumps fundamentals. BTC is perceived as a speculative store of value (kind of like digital gold) at this point in time. Like physical gold, as long as BTC has perceived value, it does not need to function effectively as a medium of exchange. Crypto innovations will make the "currency" function more effective as time goes on, such as the Lightning network.

2) There has been a lot of rubbish data published by the mainstream press about crypto mining consuming too much energy and "destroying" the environment. Lots of Gretas speaking up about this, but upon closer analysis, their arguments crumble. Some of the more innovative miners are moving towards utilizing "green" sources of energy for mining.

3) The quantum computing attack vulnerability is theoretical at this point in time. If and when quantum computing develops to the point where the blockchain becomes vulnerable, so will every other encrypted network - this includes traditional banking systems. As is the case with most theoretical risks, as they develop, countermeasures - defenses - usually evolve, simultaneously, as well.

QKD was mentioned.

Here is a nice little tidbit:

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A team of quantum computing engineers from JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Toshiba Corp (6502.T) and Ciena Corp say they have successfully shown that a powerful, newly-developed encryption network can be used to protect communications on the blockchain, according to a paper published Thursday.

The group of researchers say it is the first time that a quantum key distribution (QKD) network, a super-secure two-way communication network powered by quantum physics, has been tested as a way to protect the blockchain from quantum computing attacks.

Quantum computers, which can process information and calculations at a radically faster rate than classical computers, are still being developed, and so experts say quantum computing cyberattacks are still some years away. But the threat they pose is so great that researchers like those at JPMorgan are searching for ways to protect banking systems now.

"Security is paramount for JPMorgan Chase," said Marco Pistoia, head of JPMorgan's Future Lab for Applied Research and Engineering group and one of the leaders of the research.

"This work comes ... as we continue to prepare for the introduction of production-quality quantum computers, which will change the security landscape of technologies like blockchain and cryptocurrency in the foreseeable future."

JPMorgan has been a proponent of blockchain technology for use in the financial system, and the bank launched its own digital currency called JPM Coin in 2019.

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