pablo heman btc analysis

[hooligan]

a fav crypto thinker

https://www.instagram.com/pablo_heman/r ... =copy_link

47k by jan 28

[Yodean]

*****

Prolly better to do something in the middle ...

[Yodean]

New York City Mayor Eric Adams on Thursday said his first paycheck, to arrive Friday, will be automatically converted into cryptocurrency via Coinbase Global Inc (COIN.O).

The salary will be converted to Ethereum and Bitcoin, the statement added.

The mayor last year said he would take his first three paychecks in bitcoin and signaled his intention to make his city the "center of the cryptocurrency industry".

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-01-20/N ... nbase.html

[outof thebox]

New York City Mayor Eric Adams on Thursday said his first paycheck, to arrive Friday, will be automatically converted into cryptocurrency via Coinbase Global Inc (COIN.O).

The salary will be converted to Ethereum and Bitcoin, the statement added.

The mayor last year said he would take his first three paychecks in bitcoin and signaled his intention to make his city the "center of the cryptocurrency industry".

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-01-20/N ... nbase.html

This dude on his best day is a retarded Jackass

[outof thebox]

*****

Prolly better to do something in the middle ...

I know it is wrong but I can't wait for the day most millennials get their asses handed to them in a shitty platter. Aside from a few exceptions this generation and the generation after them deserve all the pain that is coming.

[AstuteShift]

Me being part of the millennial generation, Majority are spoiled brats.

Crypto market is a very young market and eventually, those quick gains will lead to steep losses due to two simple facts.

The masses have no patience and no discipline. Crypto is accelerated boom and bust cycles at a fast clip.

Any promise of fast gains, even if the masses get it they don’t keep it for long.

Goes to this SOL quote too and it’s quite timeless

“Riches come to those who seek it and rags to those who chase it”

Currently, I see bonds as a tremendous trade opportunity. The FED can say whatever they want to scare the masses but the real meat of the matter is that currency debasement will continue.
Negative rates on yields will likely also happen, just wait for the bankers to figure out how to scam the masses on it.

[Yodean]

*****

It's gonna be Gold vs. BTC this year ... who's gonna win? For the first time in a very long time, the shiny stuff has a chance to beat BTC.

[Budge]

*****

It's gonna be Gold vs. BTC this year ... who's gonna win? For the first time in a very long time, the shiny stuff has a chance to beat BTC.

Not sure those will be the ones to focus on this year, but given the choice, your right it'll be AU. BTC futures looking sad. Weekly could drop to 36,120. GBTC on the monthly chart could hit $10.

The latest shiny objects (NFTs) are now all the rage.

[Yodean]

Not sure those will be the ones to focus on this year, but given the choice, your right it'll be AU. BTC futures looking sad. Weekly could drop to 36,120. GBTC on the monthly chart could hit $10.

GBTC's interesting ... it's currently trading at a >25% discount to the actual BTC price, last time I checked, based on GBTC's actual holdings of spot BTC.

This could be terrible or good, depending on whether you are planning on selling GBTC or buying. For the sophisticated crypto. gunners (not me - I am more a lazy HODLer, for the most part), it offers some type of arbitrage opportunity.

It's darkest before the light ... my base case remains for some type of BTC rally between February and May, then I'll reassess.

I don't think the top for BTC will be in for this year until the SEC approves a _spot_ BTC ETF. The futures BTC ETFs just give additional leverage for the PTBs to manipulate the BTC price even more.

But hey, it's important to remember that in BTC's 13-year history, in any four-year period, you could have bought BTC at any price and come out ahead. Just gotta hold at least four years.

History doesn't necessary repeat, but it does rhyme.

I added to my crypto. holdings today, lmao, including COIN, which is a steal at < $200.

[SOL]

Monthly Chart of GBTC



The picture short to intermediate does not look that great, unless GBTC closes above 27 preferably 28 on a monthly basis, the odds are pretty good of a test of the 18 ranges at which point it would probably make for a great buy. I prefer to sit and wait lol when dealing with cryptos.

If GBTC hits 18.00 then RIOT and MARA might be good secondary plays. Right now Gold appears to look better.

One could argue that BTC topped in 2021. So a bottom is likely sometime in 2022

[hooligan]

Monthly Chart of GBTC



The picture short to intermediate does not look that great, unless GBTC closes above 27 preferably 28 on a monthly basis, the odds are pretty good of a test of the 18 ranges at which point it would probably make for a great buy. I prefer to sit and wait lol when dealing with cryptos.

If GBTC hits 18.00 then RIOT and MARA might be good secondary plays. Right now Gold appears to look better.

One could argue that BTC topped in 2021. So a bottom is likely sometime in 2022

the btc chart itself doesnt share that upper horizontal level. seems to be differences in scaling. wonder how that effects things

[AstuteShift]

That monthly chart of GBTC is brutal, for the brats that think holding forever makes them look like a genius

On the lesser timescales, for risk takers, wait for a small relief rally and short or get puts. BITO etf will likely get demolished if bitcoin reaches below 20k

[Yodean]

the btc chart itself doesnt share that upper horizontal level. seems to be differences in scaling. wonder how that effects things

Yeh, even though I hold and trade GBTC, I use the BTC chart for my entry and exit points for GBTC, which isn't great, depending on the premium. Imo the charts are quite different. Lots of gaps on the GBTC charts, less so on BTC's, for example.

The premium currently on GBTC is around -22% or something like that, which is quite crazy. The trust is apparently trying to buy its own shares to reduce the difference, but it isn't working very well.

Theoretically, if one buys (i.e. now) or sells (when the premium is +ve) on the extreme ends of the premiums, one will garner additional profits.

A lot depends on the SEC - if a spot U.S. BTC ETF is approved (it's looking less and less likely this year, atm), especially if it happens to be GBTC (they've tried several times already), it should ignite a final ROAR (Rally Of All Rallies) of some sort.

Atm, BTC and ETH have basically dropped 50% from ATHs. Sentiment is quite terrible - similar to what's happening in the tech. sector.

The Nasdaq Comp. has dropped about 15% from recent ATHs. If we expect the Nasdaq to challenge the 16k - 17k zone, BTC will likely have a nice bullish run left in the tank. At this point, BTC is still mostly a leveraged play on volatile tech. stocks, despite what the BTC Maximalists say.

BTC's current chart pattern is quite similar in many respects to the late May '21 thru late July '21 period - but the main difference contextually is that last year during that time, the Fed "put" (i.e. supporting the equity markets) was in play, while currently, Fed "jawboning" has placed the fear of God in speculators.

If the Fed maintains or increases its hawkish tone this week, there will likely be a little more downside for BTC as well as the Nasdaq. If not, BTC will likely remain range-bound in the 34k - 36k for a bit before rallying - my base case.

If you have a four-year time horizon, to my eyes, BTC at this point is a "no-lose" trade. In its 13-year history, you could have bought BTC at any point (i.e. at every high), and would have been profitable if you were willing to wait up to four years.

Exciting times, the markets are particularly interesting this year ...

[harryg]

Filled on what was, at the time, a very speculative limit order placed on ETH @ $2200 in November. Also, for my sins, some BTC at the same time.

I know Sol is not too keen on that Crypto Fear Index, but I haven't found a better one for now. It's been on 'Extreme Fear' for a couple of weeks.

[SOL]

Filled on what was, at the time, a very speculative limit order placed on ETH @ $2200 in November. Also, for my sins, some BTC at the same time.

I know Sol is not too keen on that Crypto Fear Index, but I haven't found a better one for now. It's been on 'Extreme Fear' for a couple of weeks.

BTC could be due for a relief rally based on the weekly chart of Bitcoin futures. As long as it does not close below 30K on a weekly basis the outlook will remain mildly bullish. However, there is a good chance it could fill the gap at 28K before rallying. The next rally is likely to lead to a lower high, which will then be followed (most likely) by a lower low. The odds are now around 60% that BTC will trade to the 15k ranges before surging to new highs. If it breaks below 30K the odds will rise to roughly 72%