coal stocks

[stefk]

Hello Sol, in the last updates, you evoke the coal sector. But which coal are you referring to, metcoal or thermal coal ? do they follow the same trend ?

AMR and METC are both metcoal equities.

[SOL]

Sorry for the slow response, I haven’t logged in much lately, been travelling and spending less time in front of the screen.

Thermal coal will likely move first, but the broader coal complex should follow, especially with the Strait of Hormuz either restricted or effectively toll-based, because in both cases traffic slows and energy flows tighten. On top of that, we still don’t know how much infrastructure has been damaged in the Gulf, and that uncertainty alone shifts behaviour.

Europe and large parts of Asia that don’t have the luxury of stable supply will be forced to lean back into coal, not by choice but by necessity. Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter, had already reduced output before the war, and now it’s looking to reverse course and increase production, which tells you that things could be far worse than the media is letting on.

[stefk]

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OK, I took a good position yesterday in METC at $14,30.

The last monthly candle is a spinning top, with the below shadow longer than the upper one.

It seems to be a good bet for making a double.

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Aperçu IA
+6
"""" Mastering the Candlestick Spinning Top Pattern for Trading ...
A spinning top with a longer lower shadow (bottom wick) and a small body indicates a, tense, temporary battle where sellers ("bears") pushed prices down, but buyers ("bulls") recovered to close near the open. It signifies strong bullish rejection of lower prices and potential trend exhaustion, often indicating a reversal.
Key Characteristics & Interpretation

Structure: Small real body, long lower shadow, shorter upper shadow.
Meaning: Represents indecision, but with a slight bias toward buyers recovering control from a lower level.
Location Matters: If this pattern forms at the end of a downtrend, it acts as a strong reversal signal (bullish reversal).
If Found in Downtrend: It suggests sellers are losing momentum.
If Found in Uptrend: It suggests potential bullish exhaustion. """

[MarkD]

Been playing with a new sentiment indicator. The top section is the S&P.

https://ibb.co/kgRtQZ4q

[MarkD]

I have a solution to the energy embargo at the Strait of Hormuz.

The USA should place a matching toll to enter and exit the bay. Paid in advance in gold, rare earths, agri products, etc.

Everybody involved WINs, to coin a phrase from the 70s; Whip (up) Inflation Now.

[stefk]

Yes, good idea, but the Persians already do it. When they demand to pay the passage in yuan, they know that this chinese currency is backed by gold and silver, not officially, but everybody knows that the bank of China is aggressively accumulating precious metals. Everybody knows that the shangai gold exchange trades with real gold and real silver. US Comex trades with fake gold and silver, US comex drives only paper pricing.

For or a good part of the world, the yuan has more credibility than the us dollar.

[MarkD]

That's exactly my point. Require a physical toll to keep the piece. And if the Iranians sell at a discount, the toll increases to Brent pricing plus. And payment in dollars could also be required to reduce the toll. Additionally, it accelerates the plan to build out IMEC on the peninsula, which bypasses the strait completely.

The Don's son-in-law owns IMEC, so they would see this as a massive win imo.

[stefk]

What is IMEC?

[MarkD]

India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor

The broker is Kushner and was developed as part of the Abraham Accords. Note, the perspective I have developed is this conflict is a real estate deal hidden in a war zone.

[stefk]

Daily chart for METC. Descending channel formation.





monthly chart for METC. Double spinning top, in the rectangle

Aperçu IA

""""A double spinning top with big lower shadows signals intense indecision, where two consecutive candles show buyers rejecting lower prices after a downtrend or during a pause. The small bodies and long lower wicks indicate a struggle, often acting as a potential bullish reversal or temporary consolidation. """