coal stocks

[stefk]

Hello Sol, in the last updates, you evoke the coal sector. But which coal are you referring to, metcoal or thermal coal ? do they follow the same trend ?

AMR and METC are both metcoal equities.

[SOL]

Sorry for the slow response, I haven’t logged in much lately, been travelling and spending less time in front of the screen.

Thermal coal will likely move first, but the broader coal complex should follow, especially with the Strait of Hormuz either restricted or effectively toll-based, because in both cases traffic slows and energy flows tighten. On top of that, we still don’t know how much infrastructure has been damaged in the Gulf, and that uncertainty alone shifts behaviour.

Europe and large parts of Asia that don’t have the luxury of stable supply will be forced to lean back into coal, not by choice but by necessity. Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter, had already reduced output before the war, and now it’s looking to reverse course and increase production, which tells you that things could be far worse than the media is letting on.