palladium

[MarkD]

Not bad entry. I am waiting for the big washout. Fully loaded in several position including SBSW. Might add a fifth quarter on a market flush day.

[nicolas]

We have our breakout above the 200-day. Let's see if it's a fake or if it can hold / re-test this key level. It has acted as a strong resistance so far this year.

Palladium futures. Daily chart. 200-day SMA.

When it trends, PA seems to respect this 40-week MA. After some consolidation, a bullish breakout above this level could start a solid uptrend.

Palladium futures. Weekly chart. 40-week SMA.

[MarkD]

Commodities and related stocks all went up 5-10% in my accounts yesterday. Even thought core CPI was still above 2.5%.

Today things are a bit more subdued following the PPI release as ex-food/energy it's running at 3.3%. Much less upward movement at the open although still positive for some stocks like MPW.

[SOL]

Beyond market forces, political forces are clearly at play. The U.S. has been a busy beaver with its sanctions, targeting anyone it sees fit. We suspect the favour is about to be returned. Should Russia respond in kind, Palladium could easily jump several hundred dollars in a single day.

Part of the recent Palladium move came from Putin's mild suggestion that Russia might limit resources like Titanium and Palladium to unfriendly nations. When he says something like that, it's rarely a joke.

If, for any reason, South Africa joins the fracas, prices will explode upwards and very quickly. They’ve already indicated that Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) might limit production due to pricing pressures. This would only further tighten the supply, adding more fuel to an already volatile situation in the Palladium market.

[MarkD]

I noted both of those events and also that and China made similar comments on rare Earth's.

I traded in and out for several months on PALL so my DCA is like today's closing price around $107. The upside is pretty clear after SBSW announced it's problems.

Nice call it appears as we shift back to ICE auto manufacturing (for now).

[MarkD]

More good news is bad news, until they figure out it's impossible to excavate and extract.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/21/busi ... eries.html

[bobdylan]

Massive move in PALL today.

Sol - any thought into adjusting the PALL plays similar to what you did with TLT in the most recent updates?

[SOL]

Massive move in PALL today.

Sol - any thought into adjusting the PALL plays similar to what you did with TLT in the most recent updates?

Are you suggesting a strategy of position trading, as in jumping in and out of a position? If that’s what you mean, then taking some (the keyword being some) in the $120 to $130 range and then redeploying on a pullback could make sense. However, keep in mind that we’re talking about palladium, which is highly volatile and explosive for two reasons: first, it’s a thinly traded market, and second, Russia or South Africa could throw in a stink bomb to muddy the waters, causing the metal's price to soar.

I position trade with the understanding that I might not be able to get back in. Therefore, I’ve almost doubled my exposure to this play; if I get knocked out, I will still have one lot remaining. I also have exposure via SBSW and SPPP.

Here are some notes on upcoming changes:

We will be position trading on more stocks, but we'll start slowly. Additionally, we plan to reduce the number of overall plays and adopt a more targeted approach—again, gradually and without rushing. The benefits of this strategy are twofold: first, it gives us time to focus on position trading-specific plays, and second, it reduces mental stress

[MarkD]

Any thoughts on HMC? One the top car makers with manufacturing in USA. I opened a position this morning.

https://ibb.co/MNR6SjV

[SOL]

It appears to be forming a bottom, though, as you know, this process can either wrap up quickly or stretch into a longer, drawn-out affair. There’s a chance it could dip briefly to the 22.50–22.80 range, but unless unexpected negative news hits, this should be short-lived.

Ideally, it drops below 25.00 temporarily and closes the week at or above 25. From there, the setup turns bullish if it can close at or above 30.00 on a weekly but ideally monthly basis.

[MarkD]

I figured a dip to 22 would ideally be a firm bottom so we're visualizing a similar setup.

Good to have a second opinion. Grazie!

[AstuteShift]

Right now is pretty attractive for PALL, no one is talking about palladium. Literally crickets. That’s always the best time to accumulate

I am seeing more accumulation volume wise on palladium despite the recent sell off. Remember when an asset holds its lows and trades in a range for a long time, then a big move is expected to occur.

So patience is key here. For disclipine, it will depend on your investment plan and strategy

When I see a good investment, I go big and wait. This is one of those opportunities just like SOL called for the dollar run years ago.

[MarkD]

I grabbed 10 more shares unofficially this week.

[stefk]

Following the market update, I sold all my SBSW shares at $7,56.

A good 90% in one year.

Lets wait for the pullback.

[stefk]

Et voilà guys, here is a good example of the universal vexation law. Last friday, I sold out at $7,56, and today breakout and above $8 ........and all precious metals in the red !!!!!!