palladium

[stefk]

Palladium and tactical investors is an old succes story, we can track it in the begin of the 2000s.

I remember, Sol was pounding the table in 2003 and 2004, with his buy recommandation of palladium.

Its a pity I lost the market updates of this period. Maybe an other ancient subsriber was less stupid than me.....

I found back an article of 2005, to give you an idea, there were more articles from Sol about palladium, but I cant find them.

http://news.goldseek.com/TacticalInvest ... 103723.php

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There is a new system on kitco, with real time prices of the four precious metals.

https://www.kitco.com/price/precious-metals/palladium

In the indicators, you can chose MACD. On the monthly chart, we see there was never such an extreme oversold period for palladium, when you go back till 1998.

For the three other precious metals, you cant find such an extreme oversold period.

On the weekly chart, you can see a powerful positive divergence with MACD.

On the short term daily chart, the MACD stands in the overbought zone. The market will try to lower the price till 1000$, and maybe lower than 1000$. It will be a real screaming buy......just like in 2004.......

Maybe a good surprise for us in 2024. Happy new year for everybody, and for the tactical investor team.....

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https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflat ... amount=600

[scremonini]

According to various sources online demand for palladium has reached pick and supply will increase with recycling of existing catalytic converters.

The market may be extremely oversold, but does that justify being overly bullish if the fundamentals are looking nasty?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 023-01-27/

[stefk]

Dont forget that Russia is the powerhouse of palladium production, 42% of the world production. A lot of things can happen with Russia.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/product ... -1-1406885

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/ ... 023-12-05/

Palladium has the ability to absorb hydrogen, 900X his volume !!!!

No hydrogen economy without palladium.

[scremonini]

Thanks for sharing the links and info. Seems there could be new potential usage for Pall, no definite demand growth. Its in Nornickel's interest to push the research to ensure its primary business longevity.
As per real demand from current uses I only see steady decrease.
I am overly invested in PALL, never wished to be more wrong in my life!

[SOL]

According to various sources online demand for palladium has reached pick and supply will increase with recycling of existing catalytic converters.

The market may be extremely oversold, but does that justify being overly bullish if the fundamentals are looking nasty?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 023-01-27/

If one adds mass psychology to the mix, then the optimal time to buy always emerges when fear is prevalent and the market or sector is being neglected. The smart money loads up at this stage because substantial gains materialise during these periods. In essence, the ideal buying opportunity arises when the news is downright terrible. By the time good news floods in, it's usually too late—the stock has already surged. At this point, the masses are forced to chase the investment.

[SOL]

Thanks for sharing the links and info. Seems there could be new potential usage for Pall, no definite demand growth. Its in Nornickel's interest to push the research to ensure its primary business longevity.
As per real demand from current uses I only see steady decrease.
I am overly invested in PALL, never wished to be more wrong in my life!

I hope you're reinvesting profits from the closed positions, as many of us at TI are doing. Personally, I avoid large positions with the principal amount but find using profits acceptable, especially since we've closed several positions profitably. I've invested twice as much as usual in Palladium (2 lots), but please don't see this as a reason to follow suit. I'm comfortable with added risk and have experienced drawdowns as high as 70% before the investment reversed and soared

[bpcw]

Thanks for sharing the links and info. Seems there could be new potential usage for Pall, no definite demand growth. Its in Nornickel's interest to push the research to ensure its primary business longevity.
As per real demand from current uses I only see steady decrease.
I am overly invested in PALL, never wished to be more wrong in my life!

The news follows the markets, they have to find something that fits the price change. The same sort of thing would have been said when oil prices plummeted over the covid pandemic.

In any case, I could quite easily see them push the deadlines for phasing out petrol/diesel cars back and when news starts coming in that the infrastructure for large electric vehicle take up just isn't there, plus that it isn't as green as their making out, Palladium demand could soar!

[kcun333]

You are so right! If stocks fall, news is that people have jitters over rising interest rates. If stocks go up, news says consumer confidence ticked up. If stocks fall again, news may be that the Fed Reserve made a negative comment. It never stops. The real reason stocks go up is that there is more buyers than sellers, and much of that depends on mass psychology and whether the market is being manipulated to go in that direction.

[stefk]

I begin today my second palladium campaign, the first one was twenty years ago.

First deployment today, in SPPP at $9,66.

I am ready for the other first deployment in SBSW, below the $5.

Sol, the old guard is with you ......

[Budge]

Palladium trades such low volume in the futures market, it's easily pushed around.

Just looked today 3,282 vs Platinum at 23,065

PALL 30,963 and SPPP 86,729

[stefk]

https://platinuminvestment.com/files/46 ... y_2024.pdf

Some good infos to know about the palladium 's brother.

""Our revised forecasts reflect a reduction in both our platinum supply and
demand between 2025 to 2027. The net impact is for sustained annual
platinum market deficits of between 500 koz and 612 koz. ""

""Platinum market deficits are expected
to average 7% of demand between 2025 to 2028 (503-613 koz p.a.). The
platinum investment case remains compelling as consecutive years of
platinum market deficits highlights strong demand and constrained supply""

""We expect market deficits to cause above ground stocks to fall from 23 weeks
of demand at the end of 2023 to 6 weeks of demand by the end of 2028,
potentially their lowest level since records began (historical data).""

""
WPIC estimates that around 25% of primary
PGM supply is loss making using financial year 2022 reported costs (link), or
around 1.3 Moz of annual platinum production. Several producers including
Sibanye-Stillwater, Amplats, Implats, Tharisa, Wesize and Sedibelo have
announced measures to improve profitability. Should low prices be protracted,
this may result in restructuring unprofitable supply which could lead to deeper
deficits within our two- to five-year horizon. ""

""Figure 7. Platinum for palladium substitution is expected to peak at ~700 koz
in 2025 before palladium for platinum substitution starts from 2026""

""It is not known
what platinum price will be necessary to attract the portion of above ground
stocks required to meet the supply shortfall, nor what impact having around 80%
of above ground stocks located in China (and effectively unavailable), will have
on metal flows and price.""

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https://bunker-group.com/en/blog/platin ... ction-cost

""The official platinum AISC was 760 US$ in 2021. However, the implied AISC from the financial statements of the major producers is 1076 US$/Oz. Additionally, the marginal AISC of the 10% more expensive mines stands at 1210 US$/Oz.""

[SOL]

It's interesting to see how the discussion around hydrogen cars has suddenly changed, suggesting a shift away from electric vehicles. Stories are now emerging, most like being pushed out, claiming that electric cars are on the decline, with BMW and Volvo supposedly abandoning them for hydrogen alternatives.

At the same time, out of nowhere, there is a push for small programs that subsidize hydrogen car manufacturers. However, STEFK has pointed out that the hydrogen boom depends on Palladium, and the momentum stalls without it.

Doesn't the story seem strangely familiar? I briefly mentioned it above, but it's so reminiscent of how the EV mania was unleashed. Initially praised, EVs suddenly fell out of favour in the narrative, only to make a sudden and inevitable comeback. The cycle repeats, with room for various crackpot ideas that the masses eagerly chase. They pursue whatever appears to run fast, even if it means risking catching a bullet midway through the race. The allure of potential gains keeps them in pursuit, undeterred by the fact that the narrative could change at the drop of a hat.

Budge's observation of the thin trading of Palladium is "spot on". This market is extremely easy to manipulate.

There is also a wildcard factor: Russia could play games, as they did before, and now they have even more reason to do so. If they curtail supplies, the market will go ballistic.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... -and-jobs/

https://www.autonews.com/mobility-repor ... g-business

[MarkD]

https://www.hydrogencarsnow.com/index.php/1807-1986/

[Budge]

It's interesting to see how the discussion around hydrogen cars has suddenly changed, suggesting a shift away from electric vehicles. Stories are now emerging, most like being pushed out, claiming that electric cars are on the decline, with BMW and Volvo supposedly abandoning them for hydrogen alternatives.

At the same time, out of nowhere, there is a push for small programs that subsidize hydrogen car manufacturers. However, STEFK has pointed out that the hydrogen boom depends on Palladium, and the momentum stalls without it.

Doesn't the story seem strangely familiar? I briefly mentioned it above, but it's so reminiscent of how the EV mania was unleashed. Initially praised, EVs suddenly fell out of favour in the narrative, only to make a sudden and inevitable comeback. The cycle repeats, with room for various crackpot ideas that the masses eagerly chase. They pursue whatever appears to run fast, even if it means risking catching a bullet midway through the race. The allure of potential gains keeps them in pursuit, undeterred by the fact that the narrative could change at the drop of a hat.

Budge's observation of the thin trading of Palladium is "spot on". This market is extremely easy to manipulate.

There is also a wildcard factor: Russia could play games, as they did before, and now they have even more reason to do so. If they curtail supplies, the market will go ballistic.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... -and-jobs/

https://www.autonews.com/mobility-repor ... g-business

Didn't read the second article, but the title caught my attention: "Federal subsidies will make hydrogen one of the most cost-effective decarbonizing fuels for many U.S. industrial sectors."

To be cost-effective it needs federal subsidies. What could possibly go wrong?

I'm waiting for the "Generation N.th" industrial revolution that harnesses political BS. US will be world leaders again.

[scott]

Post by Expert » Wed Feb 07, 2024 11:42 pm

PALL is now at a 52 week low. In a Market Update from a few months back, I remember that you had mentioned that PALL is close to triggering an MOAB. Is it now at that point?

Bought some more PALL yesterday, now my largest holding (except for cash) @ 6.6% of my portfolio.