June 12th update

Interim Market updates will only be posted here from now on
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AstuteShift
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Re: June 12th update

Post by AstuteShift »

SOL wrote: Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:30 pm
AstuteShift wrote: Wed Jun 14, 2023 10:47 am I like the new format, gives a glimpse of MP which is the most important tool.

:mrgreen:

Got me thinking in a new way which is interesting
This could be worth adding to your list of contemplations, now that it seems there is a stock rotation in progress. There could also be silent and violent corrections. The violent correction would result from a significant drop in those 7-9 plays that have been leading the way up. The correction would be silent, as it is likely to have no impact on the indices since other worker bees will replace them.
It makes sense for the Russel 2000 stocks to take over, I’m seeing potential of monster gains in this sector
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MarkD
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Re: June 12th update

Post by MarkD »

Cannot comment on incrediblecharts.com as I am no longer using a pc, simply chrome os.

Stockfetcher looks like the scan engine is fairly comprehensive. I don't scan for charts often as I use stockcharts.com. It has a scan engine but I really don't use it often. Have been using TI picks and trading them using Sol's picks and my own analysis.

I also might recommend magicformulainvesting.com. The scan provides a quick list of stocks to consider. And Sol has noted his favorite scan including low P/S which can be highly reliable as well.

Time being a factor I just have learned to use TI picks and have been very happy to date. But if Sol should opt out, gotta have a backup plan!
"You can observe a lot just by watching"
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“The best lies always contain a grain of truth”
Joakim Palmkvist
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MarkD
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Re: June 12th update

Post by MarkD »

A quick review of all equity CEFs shows only one bested the S&P on the current rally, and is now losing momentum. Approximately half showed no significant RS. The other had negative RS confirming the strength of the rally is very concentrated.

Stock pickers market.
"You can observe a lot just by watching"
Yogi Berra

“The best lies always contain a grain of truth”
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SOL
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Re: June 12th update

Post by SOL »

MarkD wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:21 pm

Stock pickers market.
Once the AI mania fades away, people will grasp the true meaning of investing. It won't be a mere "oh yeah, it's AI, let's jump right in." Sadly, many individuals who have reaped large gains during this period will end up losing it all.

Let's revisit the scenario with Bitcoin when we initially closed out GBTC, which boasted gains of 240%. During that period, BTC was trading around 59-60, and it climbed even higher, reaching 67-69K. At that point, we received emails questioning why we were cashing out. It's always during the peak that such inquiries arise.

Then came the flurry of ambitious targets like 200K, 500K, and even 1 million. However, before we knew it, BTC dropped below 16K. While we made two profitable trades with GBTC, we currently face losses. Nevertheless, the previous gains more than compensate for these losses. Yet, what stands out is that surveys indicate the majority of BTC bulls held on and continue to hold on. What does this exemplify? Bulls and bears may make money occasionally, but the pigs always end up getting slaughtered.

To survive and continue the fight, it is crucial to take profits along the way up consistently and, when the frenzy begins, cash out and reinvest a portion during a pullback. However, the unfortunate reality is that most individuals live only to face death the next day.
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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SOL
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Interim Market Update June 16, 2023

Post by SOL »

Bullish sentiment is approaching the 50 mark, currently at 49. This is remarkable given that bullish sentiment had remained below 39 for nearly 19 months and the current reading is the highest since around May 21, if I'm not mistaken.

We may see bullish sentiment rise above 55. Additionally, several major MP developments have occurred recently, which I will discuss in more detail later. Suffice it to say, they all point to something significant happening. The developments are bullish but not in the way most investors expect. For one, there will likely be stock rotation. For another, at least two of the 8-9 leading Stock candidates driving the rise will get hit hard.

All told it's surprising that bullish readings continue to rise at such a rapid pace. So far, the shift has come from the bearish camp. Hopefully, both bulls and bears will get nervous and move into the neutral camp. If neutral sentiment readings rise to 55, you cannot imagine the bullish situation it would create. For one, the odds of a FOAB signal would increase to 90%. I will stop there for now because neutral sentiment currently sits at only 34 and has remained in the mid-to-low-30s range for weeks.

All in all, the current signals are fantastic because most are based on Mass Psychology factors. Mildly put, I would say these developments are simply splendid.
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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AstuteShift
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Re: June 12th update

Post by AstuteShift »

SOL wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 4:35 pm
MarkD wrote: Fri Jun 16, 2023 3:21 pm

Stock pickers market.
Once the AI mania fades away, people will grasp the true meaning of investing. It won't be a mere "oh yeah, it's AI, let's jump right in." Sadly, many individuals who have reaped large gains during this period will end up losing it all.

Let's revisit the scenario with Bitcoin when we initially closed out GBTC, which boasted gains of 240%. During that period, BTC was trading around 59-60, and it climbed even higher, reaching 67-69K. At that point, we received emails questioning why we were cashing out. It's always during the peak that such inquiries arise.

Then came the flurry of ambitious targets like 200K, 500K, and even 1 million. However, before we knew it, BTC dropped below 16K. While we made two profitable trades with GBTC, we currently face losses. Nevertheless, the previous gains more than compensate for these losses. Yet, what stands out is that surveys indicate the majority of BTC bulls held on and continue to hold on. What does this exemplify? Bulls and bears may make money occasionally, but the pigs always end up getting slaughtered.

To survive and continue the fight, it is crucial to take profits along the way up consistently and, when the frenzy begins, cash out and reinvest a portion during a pullback. However, the unfortunate reality is that most individuals live only to face death the next day.
I find crypto and bitcoin very comical as an asset. It’s like seeing the modern tulip, which of course will have a tragic ending

Im thinking one more dump will suffice before it looks attractive
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