June 12th update

[bpcw]

Sol, thanks for the latest update, very interesting and informative read!

Sorry to be so quick with the questions but just one paragraph I need clarity on, I could just assume I know what you're saying as I'm pretty sure I do but best to ask anyway!

The paragraph below:

What was the prevailing theme before and after markets crashed or underwent significant corrections? The underlying theme was that the overall sentiment in the market was highly negative. Secondly and more importantly, the psychological signals from the market aligned with the bullish patterns observed via TA; the trend Indicator was in a "Bullish Mode". In straightforward language, the signals were supported by factors derived from Market Psychology (MP).

Before and after markets crashed would provide different theme?

Sentiment being highly negative would indicate a bottom to me?

When you say MP and TA showing bullish patterns are you distinguishing from the masses being bullish? In other words, the masses are extremely bearish and TA might show a crossover sinal on the MACD from an extremely oversold level?

Whatever new format the update was I very much enjoyed the read for your information.

[SOL]

An error was made. I am uncertain whether I should post the entire response I wrote concerning that error, as it became a lengthy digression, with one page leading to another.

The concise answer is that it should have been phrased as follows: "What was the prevailing theme after markets experienced crashes or significant corrections?"


If you want an extensive response and the potential rabbit holes it may lead to, let me know, and I will open a separate thread for that purpose. I am quite sure that Dark Knight Budge will interject with his signature dark humour and sarcasm should that thread comes to life.

[MarkD]

Would have been obvious to anyone using Sol's Readers (solreader.com)

[Budge]

No issues with format. And I most definitely defer to you on MP. Brings to mind the old statement about talking to the organ grinder rather than the monkeys. I hesitate to use the word monkey and apologise to European football followers as the poor creature has come in for very bad press of late. Also, I would never equate you to an organ grinder.

I would add:

DJIA monthly chart page 2. There's a second extreme overbought with major jump in price between 2017-2019. Sometimes momentum indicators can stay at the extreme way longer than anticipated without the reversal.

If you were look at volume, you'll see a large increase Dec 2016 onwards.

IWM page 4. While in a trading range along with DJI, both MACDs are at crossover point. However, the big ones NDX, SPX, IWV have already broken out.

DJU pages 7,8 does not look good. Support 868 (month), 866 (quarter)? A yearly chart shows it was overbought to very overbought 2018-2022 and MACD starting to roll over. Support at 610 and climbing?

2 cents worth.

[bpcw]

An error was made. I am uncertain whether I should post the entire response I wrote concerning that error, as it became a lengthy digression, with one page leading to another.

The concise answer is that it should have been phrased as follows: "What was the prevailing theme after markets experienced crashes or significant corrections?"


If you want an extensive response and the potential rabbit holes it may lead to, let me know, and I will open a separate thread for that purpose. I am quite sure that Dark Knight Budge will interject with his signature dark humour and sarcasm should that thread comes to life.

No that's fine, let's not create a rabbit hole, open a can of worms or open Pandora's box! I think you've gone over this many times before, and you've made the most important correction.

[SOL]

Would have been obvious to anyone using Sol's Readers (solreader.com)

Hahaha! So, what is this reader about? It's news to me. I suspect I should think about trademarking my name and earn some shekels.

The old buzzard sitting in the tree scoffs, "Dream on, sonny boy!" And just like that, I smell the coffee and realise that wishful thinking never brings wishes to fruition. Dreams are delightful, but they rarely turn into reality.

I posted the section in vibrant colours to possibly circumvent Budge from interjecting with something even more colourful

[AstuteShift]

I like the new format, gives a glimpse of MP which is the most important tool.



Got me thinking in a new way which is interesting

[SOL]

I would add:

DJIA monthly chart page 2. There's a second extreme overbought with major jump in price between 2017-2019. Sometimes momentum indicators can stay at the extreme way longer than anticipated without the reversal.

Yes, that's true that the markets traded within the extreme zone for an extended period, creating what is often referred to as a tail-end move effect, albeit on a smaller scale during that time. However, and more importantly, the masses were not in a state of ecstasy, which is precisely why the sharp pullback in 2018 presented such a substantial buying opportunity.

If you were look at volume, you'll see a large increase Dec 2016 onwards.


IWM page 4. While in a trading range along with DJI, both MACDs are at crossover point. However, the big ones NDX, SPX, IWV have already broken out.

That is why I proposed the concept of stock rotation, suggesting that the laggards would begin to advance well in advance of the Nasdaq reaching its peak. Every dog will have its day in the sun. Two plays in the B&B portfolio CMI and FCX are off to a good start


DJU pages 7,8 does not look good. Support 868 (month), 866 (quarter)? A yearly chart shows it was overbought to very overbought 2018-2022 and MACD starting to roll over. Support at 610 and climbing?

The ideal setup would be for the DJU to drop below 820, consequently triggering a massive positive divergence signal. This occurrence would signify the phase reminiscent of the "let's party like it's 1999" era.

2 cents worth.
It appears to be more like 6 pence when accounting for inflation, monsignor.

The monthly chart of the IDU (proxy for DJU)



This chart doesn't look too shabby, to be honest. Yes, we might be in for volatile times, but if fear levels spike before the DJU drops, it will virtually guarantee that a drop to new lows will trigger a positive divergence signal.

[SOL]

I like the new format, gives a glimpse of MP which is the most important tool.



Got me thinking in a new way which is interesting

This could be worth adding to your list of contemplations, now that it seems there is a stock rotation in progress. There could also be silent and violent corrections. The violent correction would result from a significant drop in those 7-9 plays that have been leading the way up. The correction would be silent, as it is likely to have no impact on the indices since other worker bees will replace them.

[MarkD]

It appears the CEO of UNH subscribes to this board.

https://ibb.co/8694zBt

[bpcw]

Are the crypto's showing the way down to the stock markets for the next correction, they did late 2021?

[MarkD]

New website I came across.

https://www.quiverquant.com/fearandgreed/

[SOL]

@MarkD, Budge, Astute, and other practitioners of old-school TA, I have stumbled upon these older probably ancient sites in today's fast-paced tech world that focus on the art of technical analysis (TA). Comrades share your potentially esteemed views on them

https://incrediblecharts.com/
https://www.stockfetcher.com/

[AstuteShift]

Are the crypto's showing the way down to the stock markets for the next correction, they did late 2021?

I think a bottom in the fall is in order. I would love to see a total flush of these kids, down to 13-15k

Blackrock making a etf on bitcoin, Bank of America buying tons of bitcoin related stocks in the early 2023, so the SEC is going to hopefully make a beautiful bottom flush of these brainless kids

[AstuteShift]

@MarkD, Budge, Astute, and other practitioners of old-school TA, I have stumbled upon these older probably ancient sites in today's fast-paced tech world that focus on the art of technical analysis (TA). Comrades share your potentially esteemed views on them

https://incrediblecharts.com/
https://www.stockfetcher.com/

Mucho gracias, very informative sites.