Precious metals

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bpcw
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Precious metals

Post by bpcw »

PMs peaked when the dollar bottomed on the 2nd of Feb. As it is predicted that the dollar will continue to move higher, do you think that this inverse relationship will continue and we will see strong downward pressure. We have already seen silver drop 16% and palladium has plummeted?
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chippermon
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Re: Precious metals

Post by chippermon »

bpcw wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:48 pm PMs peaked when the dollar bottomed on the 2nd of Feb. As it is predicted that the dollar will continue to move higher, do you think that this inverse relationship will continue and we will see strong downward pressure. We have already seen silver drop 16% and palladium has plummeted?
I think so. For other commodities as well. You might find this chart interesting

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SOL
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Re: Precious metals

Post by SOL »

bpcw wrote: Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:48 pm PMs peaked when the dollar bottomed on the 2nd of Feb. As it is predicted that the dollar will continue to move higher, do you think that this inverse relationship will continue and we will see strong downward pressure. We have already seen silver drop 16% and palladium has plummeted?

The timeline in question will play a critical role in determining the answer. The dollar is approaching a multi-year top, possibly spanning over 11 years. In such a scenario, commodities tend to perform exceptionally well.

When the dollar peaks, real inflation will be felt rather than the "MANFLATION" event that has been unfolding since 2020.

In regards to PMs, we've taken a measured approach, deploying only a small portion of our resources into PALL, with larger investments made in Palladium bullion, as they tend to focus on the longer-term timelines.
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bpcw
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Re: Precious metals

Post by bpcw »

Thanks guy's.
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MarkD
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Re: Precious metals

Post by MarkD »

Foreign currencies do well with a week dollar.

https://ibb.co/Gs5bgCV

Turkish bonds currently yield 10%. So you can achieve a 10% return along with currency appreciation. I have not found an ETF that includes all Turkish bonds unfortunately.
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Yodean
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Re: Precious metals

Post by Yodean »

at the moment, public release of cot data has been delayed for several weeks but based on what is available as well as projections of what is the likely current positioning, the risk:reward for longs heavily favours palladium over gold and silver ...

of the three, silver looks particularly weak here, could dip to the mid-high teens relatively soon ...
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chippermon
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Re: Precious metals

Post by chippermon »

Yodean wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:08 am at the moment, public release of cot data has been delayed for several weeks but based on what is available as well as projections of what is the likely current positioning, the risk:reward for longs heavily favours palladium over gold and silver ...

of the three, silver looks particularly weak here, could dip to the mid-high teens relatively soon ...
My inner conspiracy theorist wants to believe this COT data issue is somewhat suspect and perhaps timely in some regard but I'm not totally sure. It's a bummer without it.

I'm with you on the SI. This chart is daily as opposed to weekly and a much smaller sample size focused on crowd sentiment who are mostly wrong so take it with a grain of salt.

Image

Here's another.

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Budge
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Re: Precious metals

Post by Budge »

My 2c. PMs rally when times are unsettled, confidence in govt is lost and war is upon us. For some strange reason, I think all are bearing down upon us.

When Russia destroys Ukraine (and maybe Poland, NATO, Romania, Baltic States, Moldova) and WW breaks out, foreign money will flood to the $ as the last currency port of call/real assets.
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SOL
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Re: Precious metals

Post by SOL »

When the USD tops and top-out, it will, commodities will bottom out and then mount real rallies. Gold will be in a position to finally take out 2400 until pullbacks should be viewed through a bullish lens if you are a long-term investor.

One thing to remember, the topping and bottoming cycles will no longer be as defined as they were in years gone by. The reason for this is simple: to sow the seeds of confusion amongst the masses.
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

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jonnyfrank
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Re: Precious metals

Post by jonnyfrank »

SOL wrote: Tue Feb 28, 2023 2:33 pm When the USD tops and top-out, it will, commodities will bottom out and then mount real rallies. Gold will be in a position to finally take out 2400 until pullbacks should be viewed through a bullish lens if you are a long-term investor.

One thing to remember, the topping and bottoming cycles will no longer be as defined as they were in years gone by. The reason for this is simple: to sow the seeds of confusion amongst the masses.
SOL,

Do you have a gold coin/bullion dealer you recommend, and if so, can you please post as reply here?
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SOL
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Re: Precious metals

Post by SOL »

jonnyfrank wrote: Thu Mar 02, 2023 9:29 pm
SOL,

Do you have a gold coin/bullion dealer you recommend, and if so, can you please post as a reply here?
It's listed in the precious metals section of each update. Here is the link
https://tacticalinvestor.com/precious-metals-dealer/
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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