Interim Update Dec 19, 2022

[Jaz]

STX
WDC
TAK
PARA

All look good. Good Book value, and/or unsustainably high Yields payers. They're either gonna cut divvies, or the stock is going to rise. I've been thinking about this strategy for a while. What do you all think?

[MarkD]

FWIW BLUE DASHED AVWAP FROM IPO; LIGHT BLUE ATL; ORANGE PRIOR SWING LOW; DASHED PINK PRIOR SWING HIGH.

WDC appears to be in position for accumulation now. Might take several months. A buy down into the low 20s perhaps.

INTC is sitting on AVWAP from prior swing low. Might be worth a nibble but concerned it might further tumble to the blue AVWAPs. The CHIPS ACT and dividend make it a reasonable time to buy.

STX looks like there's more downside possible. Might consider a little.

TAK and PARA are well below the monthly AVWAP. I note they have work to do to convince me. TAK running into low volume node, buy on pullback possibly. PARA would be a watch for me.

INTC

https://imgur.com/HtANLtO

STX

https://imgur.com/ZAdXtwh

WDC

https://imgur.com/sT4DTwr

TAK

https://imgur.com/YF4T9Jc

PARA

https://imgur.com/dhRGyoB

[Centeron631]

Here is the hedge fund bet that Buffet made. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... a-brkb.asp

i also read a few weeks ago that he (Berkshire) has 59% of the holdings in 3 stocks. So it appears he does not believe in diversifying by many industries to lower risk.

[SOL]

Here is the hedge fund bet that Buffet made. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... a-brkb.asp

i also read a few weeks ago that he (Berkshire) has 59% of the holdings in 3 stocks. So it appears he does not believe in diversifying by many industries to lower risk.

Buffett has access to information that you and I can only dream of. If I had access to half his data, I would be invested only in 4 stocks or less. I could even be tempted to put 60% in two and 40% in the other two but we lack his data

[SOL]

STX
WDC
TAK
PARA

All look good. Good Book value, and/or unsustainably high Yields payers. They're either gonna cut divvies, or the stock is going to rise. I've been thinking about this strategy for a while. What do you all think?

While dividends might be good, I think P/S might be even better. But a high dividend, a good P/S ratio, extremely oversold on the monthly charts, and maybe insider action could help even more. There is no one perfect system or metric, but if you follow a style that requires discipline and patience, you will win simply because 90% will lack the fortitude to stick with it. In the markets, the least travelled path usually produces the best results.

For example, VALE had a very high dividend (incredibly high, north of 10% when we got in) and the P/S ratio was trading close to 5 year lows and the stock was insanely oversold and all in all it worked out.

I would rather invest in MXL and KLIC than STX or WDC, both have better patterns. TAK and PARA, are not bad, both are extremely oversold and have very good P/S ratio profiles, both also happen to be on our list of stocks to monitor, albeit higher risk.

[Centeron631]

STX
WDC
TAK
PARA

All look good. Good Book value, and/or unsustainably high Yields payers. They're either gonna cut divvies, or the stock is going to rise. I've been thinking about this strategy for a while. What do you all think?

While dividends might be good, I think P/S might be even better. But a high dividend, a good P/S ratio, extremely oversold on the monthly charts, and maybe insider action could help even more. There is no one perfect system or metric, but if you follow a style that requires discipline and patience, you will win simply because 90% will lack the fortitude to stick with it. In the markets, the least travelled path usually produces the best results.

For example, VALE had a very high dividend (incredibly high, north of 10% when we got in) and the P/S ratio was trading close to 5 year lows and the stock was insanely oversold and all in all it worked out.

I would rather invest in MXL and KLIC than STX or WDC, both have better patterns. TAK and PARA, are not bad, both are extremely oversold and have very good P/S ratio profiles, both also happen to be on our list of stocks to monitor, albeit higher risk.

Sol the conversation seemed to morph into two prongs ie TI style of "buying and selling and then buying and selling again" (which seems to me hardly ever results in holding a position more than 3 years) vs. passive longer term holds aka hodling. When u lay out ur system as above is it relative to and in active use as the TI method of investing or to the passive hodling or both ? and which would the Vale example be reflecting?

[scott]

be in/do the PRESENT = Live the MIRACLE = infinity; there is no more, Why not now?... The Law of Mirrors

Could you please explain your "sig" Centoron631?

[Jaz]

On closer inspection, WDC looks look a pile of Crap. Book value is $12.22bn. HOWEVER, $10bn of that is made up of Goodwill. The most useless Asset ever. WDC have not been very good on the Acquisition front.

Please, everyone, do your own research

STX has a high Dividend, and huge share repurchase programme. Every Cent in profit they make, and sometimes more goes into repurchases, and dividends. IMO fair value for this stock is $66. I've value the company as if it were a bond.

High Yield Debt is yielding 7%. Therefore $66 ((Buybacks + Dividend)/0.07). Would buy it if it dropped to say, $33 or less.

Anyway, I should probably start a different thread. This one is for Interim Updates, not my thoughts! D'oh.

[jonnyfrank]

Selling pressure through the roof. It appears we will not get that "second leg up" after all. So, this FOAB will be when the NAS hits what target level?

[Do-or-Die]

The second leg came and went when TI stated that the easy trade was over, the Dow mounted a strong rally from the end of Sept to early December. I was on away and most of my orders to take profit were filled (all in the black), still have positions in the red, but I am in a much better position than I was In July to the last week of September.

Volume is very thin as most big players have left for the holidays , so manipulation will be rampant until they come back

[PuppBaby]

The second leg came and went when TI stated that the easy trade was over, the Dow mounted a strong rally from the end of Sept to early December. I was on away and most of my orders to take profit were filled (all in the black), still have positions in the red, but I am in a much better position than I was In July to the last week of September.

Volume is very thin as most big players have left for the holidays , so manipulation will be rampant until they come back

Question, what does all in the black mean? I can't find anything online, I assume it's better than in the red. So red<black(even)<green?

[DrSven]

red < 0 < black = green
I think black and green are used synonymously for results above zero / gains / profits.

[Centeron631]

With the general trend of the market for awhile down and the predictions of further fall down a coming, and instructions for a low risk investor to increase cash if lowish = each time i get a buy on my altert system my investing brain goes is this worthwhile ie catching another falling knife and not worth attempting the averaging down on book cost - where so many attempts in the past have proved to further my deficits, i pull back and do nothing....... Is this right or wrong or is there a right or wrong? Now if it was a rising market with a strong chance of keep on rising up, my thoughts would generally be different.

[Yodean]

With the general trend of the market for awhile down and the predictions of further fall down a coming, and instructions for a low risk investor to increase cash if lowish = each time i get a buy on my altert system my investing brain goes is this worthwhile ie catching another falling knife and not worth attempting the averaging down on book cost - where so many attempts in the past have proved to further my deficits, i pull back and do nothing....... Is this right or wrong or is there a right or wrong? Now if it was a rising market with a strong chance of keep on rising up, my thoughts would generally be different.

-as mentioned above, it's thin volume time ... october lows holding up nicely, extremely bearish sentiment on mainstream media ... a lot of key tech stocks making higher lows, etc.

-nothing has changed in the last few weeks' time to alter my base case that we're transitioning from a bear market to a neonatal calf ... the stealth bull market is in its infancy. growing pains ongoing ...

-no "right" or "wrong" in investing ... you gotta find an overall profitable style that matches your temperament and continually refine and improve it as you garner experience and new knowledge.

-the time to be fearful was Nov.'21 through May '22 - well, that's water under the bridge, too late now - now's the time to accumulate intelligently ...

[Centeron631]

Yodean "to accumulate intelligently" - I do have a general now plan for myself to limit my invests to Primary Greens only from here in. Do ur words include for now for me a low risk investor of a senior senior age, to buy to average down on some of my riskier past investments well in the red to attempt to try to save their asses? "Accumulate intelligently" are wide open words - which is usually known best in hindsite but u may have a specific meaning?