Interim Update Dec 19, 2022

[SOL]

Some raw excerpts from the next issue

The next update will likely be sent out within 24 hours.

The daily charts are close to trading in the extremely oversold ranges. Hence an interim bottom is likely. The ideal scenario calls for them to rally to the 29 to 30 of this month and then drop lower into January 2023.

At that point, we enter a crucial juncture. The two corrections we expected this year look more like one large correction, with rallies ranging from mild to somewhat strong. Hence, at least one index could diverge and bottom out earlier. It is usually the weakest index that diverges; in this case, that happens to be the Nasdaq. This divergence occurs 75 to 120 days before the other indices bottom. In other words, if this pattern pans out, the other indices will likely trend lower until March to April 2023 timelines. One should hope this divergence occurs because it usually leads to short-term explosive moves (Generally lasting 6-9 months, sometimes longer).

The monthly chart of the Nasdaq via QQQ



We are using our standard set of indicators in this chart, and viola, we have the first signal for a FOAB. The MACDs are trading at their lowest level in over 14 years. Additionally, from a long-term perspective, the market is trading in the insanely oversold range.


Latest sentiment data

Bullish 22
Bearish 44
Neutral 34

[Centeron631]

Sol i see gold index is biting the lower edge of ur sell range today (i guess rel to 2nd H of rgld not sure about sgol if we still own

[MarkD]

Some raw excerpts from the next issue

The next update will likely be sent out within 24 hours.

The daily charts are close to trading in the extremely oversold ranges. Hence an interim bottom is likely. The ideal scenario calls for them to rally to the 29 to 30 of this month and then drop lower into January 2023.

At that point, we enter a crucial juncture. The two corrections we expected this year look more like one large correction, with rallies ranging from mild to somewhat strong. Hence, at least one index could diverge and bottom out earlier. It is usually the weakest index that diverges; in this case, that happens to be the Nasdaq. This divergence occurs 75 to 120 days before the other indices bottom. In other words, if this pattern pans out, the other indices will likely trend lower until March to April 2023 timelines. One should hope this divergence occurs because it usually leads to short-term explosive moves (Generally lasting 6-9 months, sometimes longer).

The monthly chart of the Nasdaq via QQQ



We are using our standard set of indicators in this chart, and viola, we have the first signal for a FOAB. The MACDs are trading at their lowest level in over 14 years. Additionally, from a long-term perspective, the market is trading in the insanely oversold range.


Latest sentiment data

Bullish 22
Bearish 44
Neutral 34

https://imgur.com/7mmoTVf

[outof thebox]

I am locked and loaded. Just sold another property to build up cash and plan for my eventual move out of the USA.
If we get an FOAB or MOAB I am going all in, but in pieces.

[Centeron631]

Sol states 'The two corrections we expected this year look more like one large correction, with rallies ranging from mild to somewhat strong. Hence, at least one index could diverge and bottom out earlier. It is usually the weakest index that diverges; in this case, that happens to be the Nasdaq. This divergence occurs 75 to 120 days before the other indices bottom. In other words, if this pattern pans out, the other indices will likely trend lower until March to April 2023 timelines.'

Does this mean that the Nasdaq is getting close to extreme oversold and near its bottoming out, and any day now since it states 75 to 120 days prior to March and April that there will be a tremendous buying op in the Nasdaq stocks? How will we know exactly when this bottoming out has occured. Will Ti advise when the bottom is reached and which stocks r best ops as a result?

[Yodean]

Just sold another property to build up cash and plan for my eventual move out of the USA.

I'm curious, where were you thinking of moving? There's that saying: "the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence."

I've lived in a lot of places, as well as travelled quite a bit. Still have contacts in places like Russia, Kazakhstan, Taiwan, Austria, Germany, Romania, Hungary, USA, etc.

Two of my best friends are Russian and Ukrainian, ironically - Toronto is very multicultural. My Ukrainian friend unfortunately is not speaking to me atm, due to our divergent geopolitical viewpoints. Hopefully once the conflict is over, he and I can be friends again.

I guess my point is that every place has its good and bad, and people really aren't that different at their core, once you get past the superficial cultural stuff.

[harryg]

Just sold another property to build up cash and plan for my eventual move out of the USA.

I'm curious, where were you thinking of moving? There's that saying: "the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence."

I've lived in a lot of places, as well as travelled quite a bit. Still have contacts in places like Russia, Kazakhstan, Taiwan, Austria, Germany, Romania, Hungary, USA, etc.

Two of my best friends are Russian and Ukrainian, ironically - Toronto is very multicultural. My Ukrainian friend unfortunately is not speaking to me atm, due to our divergent geopolitical viewpoints. Hopefully once the conflict is over, he and I can be friends again.

I guess my point is that every place has its good and bad, and people really aren't that different at their core, once you get past the superficial cultural stuff.

Nah, the grass actually is greener in Switzerland...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JljGYrdDCek

[outof thebox]

Just sold another property to build up cash and plan for my eventual move out of the USA.

I'm curious, where were you thinking of moving? There's that saying: "the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence."

I've lived in a lot of places, as well as travelled quite a bit. Still have contacts in places like Russia, Kazakhstan, Taiwan, Austria, Germany, Romania, Hungary, USA, etc.

Two of my best friends are Russian and Ukrainian, ironically - Toronto is very multicultural. My Ukrainian friend unfortunately is not speaking to me atm, due to our divergent geopolitical viewpoints. Hopefully once the conflict is over, he and I can be friends again.

I guess my point is that every place has its good and bad, and people really aren't that different at their core, once you get past the superficial cultural stuff.

I travel every year to several places to gauge the change here in the US versus the so called developing and undeveloped world. My travels were kind of restricted during Covid, until I found a novel and permanent solution to deal with the illegal constraints.

I started to take these changes more seriously after Sol first mentioned that the Pendulum was swinging in a different direction and the West would become more and more of totalitarian state. Look how things have changed since 2015 and then how we went into mindless bot overdrive during and after COVID.

So, every time I came back from my travels, I noticed that people were becoming dumber and dumber. Not to mention that even when I ate well it was easier to gain weight here then when I ate larger portions while outside the country; probably because of the general shitty quality of our food

After COVID I thought I was living with zombies. Close to 90% of the people I thought were smart/critical thinkers turned out to be potato heads a polite way of putting it, or the part of the living dead (an impolite way of putting it). At that point talking to a cat, dog or a bottle of booze would have probably yielded better results.

I find that the US is but a shadow of what is was, culturally, and mentally speaking. I don’t want to have to be worry about hurting someone who does not know whether he is a man or woman. I refer to them as SHEIT's ( SHE plus it) it. Truth be told, someone might have come up with that before me. I am sick of having to pretend to be politically correct, and the list goes on. We are a pussy nation. Give me the, 80’s, 90’s or hell maybe even up to 2008 and I would still be okay here. In simple terms, I want to be able to tell anyone that pisses me off to fuck off and not worry about hurting their feelings. I don’t want to have to spend a fortune on lawyers if I get into some altercation because someone tried to jump me. Now you have to be careful where you before you react. In some places, knocking out a thug could get you in trouble.

I have many options, some in, south America, Asia and some Eastern Europe. I have access to three passports which makes things easier for me. I was in Turkey not too long ago, on the Mediterranean side. There are lot of foreigners there, and it was easy to make friends. Quite surprisingly many of them were critical thinkers. It was 3X easier to talk to them about all the topics I would run into shit when talking to friends and relatives in the US

I also found the same to be true though on a smaller scale in Serbia, another fantastic place, however, it might be drawn into war with Kosovo. South America is interesting but it needs more time, though Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia are quite lovely places.

I want to be able to be mentally free, where the food is decent, there is booze and I can move about freely. I started with Turkey because I found a good investment property there and foreigners are allowed to purchase property. It has appreciated nicely, there is a loophole that allows one to get residency if you own property, but I don’t think I could live there for 12 months of the year. The good thing about Turkey is that it is very close to Greece. Not too far away from Italy, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and some parts of Asia.

We hear a lot about China but I wonder how many have actually been there. I can state from experience, that 90% of what the media prints is totally crap. I have been there twice, once for a three-month stint and once for two months. People were for the most part happy, they complained about normal things as we all do, it was incredibly safe, the small towns were fantastic minus the mono food; it was either Chinese or Chinese. The three main problems for me were the language, and as I just said when you go to small towns the food is limited to only Chinese. The third If you lived in a big city, the rentals and cost of real estate was quite prohibitive. But in terms of safety, cleanliness, hospitality, public transport, and access to health care, I would say they were better than the US.

The US and the West is like living in a glass box, it all looks good as long as you don’t challenge the narrative.

To end, it’s not that the grass is greener on the other side, it’s that there is no fucking grass on this side (my opinion) so any piece of shitty turf looks better.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNghg1Y-WIc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy26co5BSrM

[jonnyfrank]

Sol states 'The two corrections we expected this year look more like one large correction, with rallies ranging from mild to somewhat strong. Hence, at least one index could diverge and bottom out earlier. It is usually the weakest index that diverges; in this case, that happens to be the Nasdaq. This divergence occurs 75 to 120 days before the other indices bottom. In other words, if this pattern pans out, the other indices will likely trend lower until March to April 2023 timelines.'

Does this mean that the Nasdaq is getting close to extreme oversold and near its bottoming out, and any day now since it states 75 to 120 days prior to March and April that there will be a tremendous buying op in the Nasdaq stocks? How will we know exactly when this bottoming out has occured. Will Ti advise when the bottom is reached and which stocks r best ops as a result?

Like you, I sometimes struggle with the cryptic updates. With today's market action I am puzzled by exactly what we should be looking for as well. I understand cash is key, yes. As for the upward move through the rest of December I am not seeing how that will come to fruition. So....you are not alone, rest assured.

[MarkD]

Here's one reason an upward move is imminent, although possibly very ST.

https://imgur.com/9uHyAYc

There are more but I agree with Sol and company.

[jonnyfrank]

With the Dow being the "leader" and it is now down 522 points, what does this really tell us about the market trajectory? It seems to me is is beyond a huge gamble to hold anything but cash right now and for the ST future. 50% loss needs a 100% gain to recover, so why the talk about a rally when all that might happen is to gain back the losses rolling in from days like today?

[jonnyfrank]

Well, it is pretty obvious that this administration wants to crush the soul of the average American with the way the market is mounting losses right before Christmas. If there was any doubt that the PTB have no regard for human life or prosperity among the masses, this is beyond proof. I never thought I would see the day where the spawn of Satan was the President of the USA, but here we are. And the audacity to parade Z around to ask the American people for more support for his money laundering war is more fact that Americans are getting dumber by the minute. This is all so hard to watch.

[Yodean]

With the Dow being the "leader" and it is now down 522 points, what does this really tell us about the market trajectory?

I think the different indices will take turns being the "leader." I wouldn't take the "leader" too seriously.

Nas. currently lagging, which often occurs in "risk off" contexts. During "risk on," Nas. tends to lead - this could manifest not just during "up days," but during "down days," when it goes down less than the Dow.

Also foreign capital flows need to be taken into consideration. Sovereign wealth funds, overseas big money, etc. tend to go into the Dow first (or at least leave the Dow last), vs. Nas., SPY, or RUT.

As for today, the last week or so of the calendar year is always a bit tricky. You've got thin volume generally, a lot of Big Boys have gone on vacation, CTA/fund rebalancing, some tax loss harvesting remaining, profit-taking for hedge funds, etc.

I'm quite bullish for January/February. The next week is going to continue to be very volatile, naturally.

The mid-October lows look like they will hold, for the indices as well as a lot of key stocks (notable exception: tsla - sell puts!).

Traditional risk parity appears to be coming back - i.e. relationship between u.s. bonds and equities. And perhaps most importantly, for me, the USD doesn't look like it's going to test $110 - $115 anytime soon.

Copper looks pretty strong arguably (tends to lead "risk on") - basing/consolidating before another potential leg up. IDU, which often also leads, is slowly trending up, regularly testing support before inching up, which is what you want to see, at least on a technical basis.

Oil is also holding its own.

For me, I'd only think about abandoning my bullish base case for Jan./Feb. if USD breaks $110-115 definitively to the upside and confirms above, or all four major indices crash below their October lows and confirm below.

Don't think that's gonna happen, but hey, I've been known to be wrong.

[LoriPrecisely]

Like you, I sometimes struggle with the cryptic updates. With today's market action I am puzzled by exactly what we should be looking for as well. I understand cash is key, yes. As for the upward move through the rest of December I am not seeing how that will come to fruition. So....you are not alone, rest assured.

I feel the same way about the updates, especially since August. I shake my head and think, "that is the opposite of what was said in the last update".
Maybe the volatility of the market is just too much for a service to be able to make heads or tails of it.
I am following 2 other services now. They are daily services, rather than monthly services. They look at certain sectors, or certain etf's, and play the trend as day trades or swing trades, buying and selling options rather than the stocks themselves.

[jonnyfrank]

Like you, I sometimes struggle with the cryptic updates. With today's market action I am puzzled by exactly what we should be looking for as well. I understand cash is key, yes. As for the upward move through the rest of December I am not seeing how that will come to fruition. So....you are not alone, rest assured.

I feel the same way about the updates, especially since August. I shake my head and think, "that is the opposite of what was said in the last update".
Maybe the volatility of the market is just too much for a service to be able to make heads or tails of it.
I am following 2 other services now. They are daily services, rather than monthly services. They look at certain sectors, or certain etf's, and play the trend as day trades or swing trades, buying and selling options rather than the stocks themselves.

There is a lot of verbal hedging in the updates, no doubt. It is masterfully cryptic. But yes, this is a tough market. Everyone needs to be reminded that volatility is not friendly to profits in the ST, and pull up the 50% loss needs a 100% gain to recover chart.