Interim Update Dec 4, 2022

[jonnyfrank]

I agree with what you posted. I am truly curious about SOL's thoughts on the current action. I have a handful of portfolios including one for shorting, long, very short term, and bonds. I use options in them when it is appropriate.

My questions are geared toward one of my portfolios usually; they don't reflect a one-sided approach. I am not all in on long-term, shorting, or short-term plays.

Right now, I have concerns over my short term plays; my minimal short positions are doing fine, but I really want to ride a wave UP!

So there you have it. I know long term investing has its perks, but playing the short-term or short play also has its benefits. I hope this explains some of my posts. I am simply looking for insight, not guarantees.

[jonnyfrank]

Ok. I just opened a small position in SQQQ as a short. Hopefully, this acts as the bull catalyst, lol. This will not be nothing more than a very ST play.

[MarkD]

Thank you! Now head to twitter and tell everyone it's time to short!

[jonnyfrank]

I already called Elon and he laughed at me.

[Yodean]

Ok. I just opened a small position in SQQQ as a short. Hopefully, this acts as the bull catalyst, lol. This will not be nothing more than a very ST play.

Today's action was mostly noise, not signal, imo.

I've been buying consistently lately, using both a bit of margin and the income from selling puts and covered calls. Accumulating even more shares of TQQQ, TMF, LABU, BITO, etc. on down days. Did sell some TMF shares today - nice profits. Also sold my LEAPS on SHOP - >95% gains in a short period of time.

Even just selling one measly put on TSLA on a down day like today is at least 1k USD or so, if you strike just below market. Plus as much as I despise Elon, TSLA under $200 is decently-priced, so I don't mind assignment, or rolling the positions forward. Been selling TSLA puts quite a lot lately ...

I am increasingly bullish on equities - short of a Dark Swan event - as long as USD doesn't close above 115 on a weekly basis, and copper continues to build a nice "coiled spring/snake" pattern.

IDU also looks like it's in a bit of a bullish consolidation phase, and it could lead to the upside. As well as FXI (China).

Stocks to the moon! This is the Way of the Ninjedi.

[jonnyfrank]

I too accumulated LABU and a little TQQQ today as well. I also sold a little TMF. I don't think we are quite done there. LABU has been an easy bounce play and this afternoon offered a nice buying opportunity, so I bought some. I sold my SQQQ after it ran up about .50 from where I bought it. Nothing major, but we eventually went from 500 down to 350 down, so my short SQQQ and I will take credit for that, lol.

Unfortunately, I have held onto some MJ for far too long, but today added more to bring my average cost down to about 7.75, and I am looking for another pop up. Fingers crossed on that one. I also picked up some KORU today.

Any thoughts on GUSH at this price (148ish)? I am liking it.....

[SOL]

"Sweep the sheep away". Well, if the markets plunge 25% and you are holding on because you don't want to be a "sheep", what does that make you? A lamb chop? Roasted mutton?

The markets are showing an overly stochastic flavor to them right now, and it is disconcerting. I don't like it. Hopefully (but we can't use hope as a plan), we get a chunk of good news and the markets ramp up to rally back up through the month.

I am curious as to what SOL's take is on the market right now. Any insight is good insight.

Do you like mint jelly with your lamb, or do you prefer a citrus sauce?

Too early to tell. These are very short-term gyrations. However, Bullish sentiment this week dropped, and more individuals moved to the neutral camp. At this point of the game, bullish sentiment should be north of 39 (the historical average), but it has not hit this mark for 12 months

Bullish sentiment is 22, and neutral sentiment is 38. I would say these readings are extremely unusual.

[jonnyfrank]

Thank you, SOL. Your updates are always helpful for me, as they provide me insight into what I am seeing and if my analysis is on the mark or at least close. I am still scratching my head on my bullish sentiment is where it is as well.

[harryg]

Lack of bullish sentiment does not surprise me. I don't see how it would be otherwise. A slow grind down all year, with Nasdaq -30%, S&P -20%, Dow -10% (simplifying). A slow grind is far more disheartening/demoralising than a sharp drop, and sentiment will probably take longer to recover. I expect many people haven't even noticed that there has been a rally.

[SOL]

Lack of bullish sentiment does not surprise me. I don't see how it would be otherwise. A slow grind down all year, with Nasdaq -30%, S&P -20%, Dow -10% (simplifying). A slow grind is far more disheartening/demoralising than a sharp drop, and sentiment will probably take longer to recover. I expect many people haven't even noticed that there has been a rally.

This is a form of learned Helplessness. It is easier to implement on animals, but with humans, as they have the ability to reason, one has to grind them down. On the bright side (and that's saying a lot as the sun just poked its heard through the dark clouds), it indicates that when the markets mount a strong rally, nobody will wake up to the next bull until the Indices take out their old highs.

While I remember 2008-2009, which was quite brutal, it almost seems this war of arttrition is just as bad. Or it could be that so much time has passed that I don't remember the details, but when I read some of the notes I jotted in my journal, the outlook was quite dire from 2008 to 2009. It got even worse from late Oct 2008 to March 2009. I also posted excerpts from papers, forum comments, etc. The sentiment was dreadful In Oct 2008, and it continued to drop until March 2009. In retrospect, buying at any point in 2008 would have been the smartest move, but it's easier said than done, especially when it appears the sky is falling.

Looking at long-term charts and sentiment gave me the data or ability to view the situation from multiple angles. If I had not used MP, I would have most likely followed the herd.

The remarkable thing is that it appears bullish sentiment is lower at this point than it was during Oct 2008 and Nov 2008

[Cinnamon]

Sol thanks for sharing some of your experiences and for being so open about them. For me 2008-2009 was dreadful, I feel I am better prepared to deal with the current situation, especially after going through the COVID crash. Both you and Harry are right, this slow grind can be devastating to the psyche, especially if you listen to the gloom and doom experts.

[bpcw]

Sol thanks for sharing some of your experiences and for being so open about them. For me 2008-2009 was dreadful, I feel I am better prepared to deal with the current situation, especially after going through the COVID crash. Both you and Harry are right, this slow grind can be devastating to the psyche, especially if you listen to the gloom and doom experts.

The Covid crash was a dream for me, I was 100% cash before it happened and made a nice amount by buying in as it plummeted.

This has been hard I must admit, wasn't expecting anything like the downturn for the first leg, wasn't investing actively during 2008/2009 but sold everything in my pension and then became a gold bug which went badly wrong in September 2011!

[Budge]

Sol thanks for sharing some of your experiences and for being so open about them. For me 2008-2009 was dreadful, I feel I am better prepared to deal with the current situation, especially after going through the COVID crash. Both you and Harry are right, this slow grind can be devastating to the psyche, especially if you listen to the gloom and doom experts.

The Covid crash was a dream for me, I was 100% cash before it happened and made a nice amount by buying in as it plummeted.

This has been hard I must admit, wasn't expecting anything like the downturn for the first leg, wasn't investing actively during 2008/2009 but sold everything in my pension and then became a gold bug which went badly wrong in September 2011!

The real shocker 2008, was the inability to log into my online accounts when the selling started. Hmm. And I was trying to buy.

One friend was long - on margin. Destroyed.

[bpcw]

Sol thanks for sharing some of your experiences and for being so open about them. For me 2008-2009 was dreadful, I feel I am better prepared to deal with the current situation, especially after going through the COVID crash. Both you and Harry are right, this slow grind can be devastating to the psyche, especially if you listen to the gloom and doom experts.

The Covid crash was a dream for me, I was 100% cash before it happened and made a nice amount by buying in as it plummeted.

This has been hard I must admit, wasn't expecting anything like the downturn for the first leg, wasn't investing actively during 2008/2009 but sold everything in my pension and then became a gold bug which went badly wrong in September 2011!

The real shocker 2008, was the inability to log into my online accounts when the selling started. Hmm. And I was trying to buy.

One friend was long - on margin. Destroyed.

I meant to say I went 100% cash before the 2008 crash and bought gold stocks and it was doing well until 2011, missed huge gains in the general stock market being a gold bug.

[Triplethought]

Sorry for the confusion but threads have become too long and too many places to look. I've been rereading the latest MU and AI newsletters and baffled by varying levels secondary index triggers (some stocks have different DOW trigger ranges than others).

But having placed sell orders based on % of market up turn I need to know are we officially on hold with regards to both the Dow and Nasdaq triggers quoted in latest MU and AI updates? should I cancel sell orders based on those index triggers?

Thanks.