Excerpts are posted in quotes.
I need to look at more data before making a final determination. Still, as we stated a few weeks ago after the new format was adapted, our goal would be to err on the side of caution when dealing with investors with low-medium risk profiles.It is now time to determine your risk profile accurately. After carefully mulling things, we will raise the exit targets in the following manner. One target for low-medium-risk and one for higher-risk players. The panic levels exhibited by those that assumed they could take on higher levels are not something we want to deal with again. Choose your profile and the targets associated with them and stick with them.
This is what the exit triggers might look like
Low-medium-risk players. Dow Targets fall in the 34800 to 35100 range
Higher risk players. Dow exit targets fall in the 35,400 to 35,510 range.
If the above format is adopted, we would only be willing to raise the target for individuals with low-medium risk profiles if the following conditions are met. The strength of the pattern increases significantly, but more importantly, the risk-to-reward profile improves.
For those willing to take on more risk. We could replace the Dow trigger with the SP500; everyone will be notified if and when that decision is made.
Other notes from the Update
If two different exit targets are chosen, individuals will need to accurately determine their risk status. I don't want anyone at TI to Have to go through the experience they went through a few weeks ago. We made the necessary changes to ensure that that episode won't be repeated. Take the time to determine your risk status as accurately as you can now.It's still not too late to jot down in a journal what you felt when the markets were pulling back firmly a few months ago. Many investors experienced absolute terror this year, and it would be a shame not to keep notes of those feelings. You risk wasting a valuable lesson. No investment book in the world will match your trading journal for a straightforward reason. No two traders are created alike, and what works for the goose will rarely work for the gander.
The MACDs on the weekly charts of all the major indices have experienced a bullish crossover; the only exception is the Nasdaq. And the Nasdaq is dangerously close to experiencing one. If this comes to pass, the odds of the markets rallying until Dec to possibly Jan 2023 will fall in the 65 to 70 per cent range. A few days ago, the Dow was the only index where the MACDs had experienced a bullish crossover on the weekly charts. Look how fast things have changed over such a short period. Furthermore, two indices (Dow and NYSE) are trading above their downtrend lines. As each index achieves this, the probability rises that the markets will rally until Dec and possibly January 2023.
We have a domino (positive) effect in play, and as each domino falls in the right place, the intensity of the signal builds. Hence, these targets could become a reality if Nasdaq follows the other indices (MACDs experience a bullish crossover on the weekly charts).
• Dow: 35,500 to 35,700. Possible spike high to 36,000
• SP500: 4350 to 4530. Could overshoot to 4600 (most likely target falls in the 4500 range)
• Nasdaq: 12600 to 13050 and as high as 13500 if secondary factors are confirmed
• Russell 2000: 1980 to 2040. It could trade as high as 2200.
• NYSE Index: 16030 to 16050, with a possible overshoot to the 16750 to 17030 range.
