Tomorrow

[SOL]

SOL,

I, for one, say "no mas!". As I get older I realize just how vulnerable people are to addiction and propaganda. Our sense of purpose through work is being replaced by immediate gratification, and it is going to leave the human race in shambles, even the elite.

Elites have a running start - they're already on the dark side.

The movies make it look like the good guys or the light side always win when in reality, the dark side has been kicking the light side into the gutter and deeper. Darkness usually dominates. Maybe it has to do with the fact that an object gets its colour from the light it reflects. A white object absorbs darkness and radiates light, while a dark object absorbs light and radiates darkness. This begs the following question is dark really the light and is light really the darkness. Food for thought

[SOL]

If BTC closes this week below 18k, I'm curious to find out what happens next. BTC's next hard support (around 14k I believe?), and the string of "lower lows" on the way there, all seem like great opportunities for a ~450% play on the long-term side of things (if BTC was to revisit its ATH anytime between now and the peak of the cybernetics bull market, that is).

*****

Pretty decent 10 minutes on one possibility for btc's price action next year. The speaker is most famous for making the "sub-20k" btc prediction quite publicly late last year when btc was 40k, all the way up to challenging 69k, and sticking to this particular prediction, even when he was speaking at a crypto conference at the height of crypto euphoria.

Basically, he thinks btc may base around 9k near April '23.

One possibility among many others.

He's predominantly a pure swing-trader of positions. Made many great calls, but also many bad ones.

Future's ultimately unknowable.

When SHTF usually something good is not too far in the offing, strange but true.

[Budge]

Just ran monthly chart BTC futures:



Support at lower Bollinger around 9800. I'll not show the weekly but it's showing 9500.

[scremonini]

Sol,

In the latest market updates, the BTC price was predicted to move lower if broken the 18k barrier.
In the previous update it was also mentioned that BTC at $ 14k / 15k would make for an excellent long term buy.

Any further thoughts considering the recent price action?

BTC does not seem to gain any traction in terms of both price and interest lately..

[Yodean]

Sol,

In the latest market updates, the BTC price was predicted to move lower if broken the 18k barrier.
In the previous update it was also mentioned that BTC at $ 14k / 15k would make for an excellent long term buy.

Any further thoughts considering the recent price action?

BTC does not seem to gain any traction in terms of both price and interest lately..

My base case is btc has a decent chance of challenging 70k sometime in '24 or before, near the time of its next halving.

Between now and then, btc could theoretically hit 9k, but the zone of support I've mentioned a few times previously (12k to 15k) is a terrific accumulation zone for the long-term investor, imo.

My customized btc indicators have all flashed that this is a great opportunity to buy, if you have a two to three-year time frame.

Generally, the best way to trade a highly volatile asset like btc is to decide far in advance what price and how much you want to buy at - for me, when btc was trading above 60k, I sold about 40% of my holdings of gbtc at that time and I told myself I'd really load up under 20k, and we're here now. I also switched from gbtc to bito in the spring so I could run option plays on the latter.

You also want to decide at what levels you want to sell portions of your holdings, preferably far in advance of those levels being hit, so your emotions aren't influenced by what's happening in the moment.

So I am aiming to sell (or let the shares get called away by Spinning the Wheel) a small portion of my current holdings of bito in the 25k to 30k range for btc, another portion in the 40k to 50k range, and a large portion above 65k.

Aiming to always diamond-hand HODL a portion regardless of price, in case of upside surprise.

[scremonini]

Hi Yoden
thanks for your response, I like your logic and tend to often apply it myself.
For BTC I told myself I would buy it under $20k, now however I feel there could be a great interest to try to push it lower as many businesses would be busted and obliged to sell.
I know of people in the industry with leverage that going below 14/15k would make the difference between life and death.
In other word the next level could be as you say 9k which would make a tremendous opportunity for those who can resist or don't have overleverage.
Let's see how it plays out, I am inclined to cut my losses if it bounces to 20/22k hoping for more downward action.
if there is a second correction I don't see how btc can hold..

[Yodean]

Let's see how it plays out, I am inclined to cut my losses if it bounces to 20/22k hoping for more downward action.
if there is a second correction I don't see how btc can hold..

Anything can, and often does, happen, but the "second correction" is not guaranteed, by any means. One of many potential possibilities.

You could see btc challenge 23k to 25k, then drop to 19k, then go up to 30k+, then drop down to 22k, etc. and call that "final" move down to 22k the "second correction." Or make up other narratives about btc's price action.

There could be a Dark Swan event and btc could drop to 3.5k.

Or the lows for btc in this cycle could already be more or less in.

I wouldn't get too hung up on one specific scenario. Best to be prepared for all scenarios.

Risk management, as always, is paramount. That includes upside risk, not just downside.

[Budge]

Off at a wild tangent:

"Voting is the adult equivalent of mailing a letter to Santa Klaus."

If voting made a difference, it would be illegal.