Trading Clarifications

[Alykin]

I subscribed late July 2020, and in the 6.5 months since I've opened and closed 41 positions based on this service for a total portfolio gain of 79%, or 145% annualized if I can maintain this (pre-tax, some is in IRA, some is taxable). I have 5-12 open positions and 10%-60% in cash at any given time, but I have a relatively small account as well. I've also made some trades on my own during this time, but those have basically broken even and I'm learning to stop doing that, or at least get better at holding off if they aren't oversold.

I use this service to find entry points on quality stocks heading up, but I act like a swing trader and sell once it is up 10-20% (overnight pops greater than that are a bonus) which usually only takes days up to a few weeks vs. holding for months to get 50-150%. Sure I've missed out on some gains, but I've also taken profits before the price heads back down as well, sometimes re-buying the same stock repeatedly.

Edit: I only buy and sell, no options trading (yet). And I greatly appreciate the forum discussions like this and on different perspectives and such to get better at the game.

[AstuteShift]

I subscribed late July 2020, and in the 6.5 months since I've opened and closed 41 positions based on this service for a total portfolio gain of 79%, or 145% annualized if I can maintain this (pre-tax, some is in IRA, some is taxable). I have 5-12 open positions and 10%-60% in cash at any given time, but I have a relatively small account as well. I've also made some trades on my own during this time, but those have basically broken even and I'm learning to stop doing that, or at least get better at holding off if they aren't oversold.

I use this service to find entry points on quality stocks heading up, but I act like a swing trader and sell once it is up 10-20% (overnight pops greater than that are a bonus) which usually only takes days up to a few weeks vs. holding for months to get 50-150%. Sure I've missed out on some gains, but I've also taken profits before the price heads back down as well, sometimes re-buying the same stock repeatedly.

Edit: I only buy and sell, no options trading (yet). And I greatly appreciate the forum discussions like this and on different perspectives and such to get better at the game.

Congrats on the great gains

If you’re conservative then stocks is the way to go

Options, futures, crypto are all for those who love high octane action however stress does build up. It’s easy to lose it all

[Eric]

I started with 3% of portfolio value as a "full lot" so each entry point was 1%... After 2 years I felt I had way too much cash on hand (20%-25%) so I upped it by half to 4.5% for a full-lot. I also took a BUNCH of profits this fall...I still have way too much cash on hand (actually far more) but I'm not complaining; my least aggressive portfolio returned 32% in 2019 and 42% in 2020, my most aggressive portfolio returned 65% in 2019 and 256% trailing 1 year from today. Keep in mind I didn't buy (or sell because I cancelled all stops) a single share of anything from March 4th until July 7th because I am the one-man IT department for my employer and I was working 65-75 hours a week during that time to get everyone converted to laptops & working from home and upgrading our infrastructure to handle over 60 people working from home along with all of my regularly scheduled upgrades and normal full-time workload... How much cash you keep on hand is personal to your situation but probably won't be a problem if your portfolio is large enough to set 3%-6% of portfolio size as a "full lot".

I'd estimate 1/3rd to 1/2 of plays take at least one fill. It will take significant time to deploy the majority of your funds if you are mostly in cash depending on how many plays you're targeting (based on your lot-size). There hasn't been much action lately because everything is super overbought.

Thanks Eric, that's the kind of info I was looking for:
Just to clarify. When you mention portfolio returns, do you take into account the cash that wasn't deployed or just the plays themselves? That is, if your least aggressive portfolio was allocated 100K in 2020, did you end up with 142K for that allocation?

Honestly, I feel a little weird that I have to reiterate this, and I'm certainly not trying to call anyone out, but I have to say I do think it's perfectly normal to wonder if I could do better than just putting most of my funds in a low cost index fund and leaving it there. Am I wrong? Isn't anyone tracking this?

Correct. I'm not doing any fancy accounting for day weighted cash deployed or anything like that. I have three brokerage accounts and each of them is traded differently:

• IRA is about 70% TI-MU stock plays (no crypto, few ETFs, just started a few conservative options [mostly selling puts and covered calls], couple hundred shares of SLV I play on my own). Fidelity said I made 32% in 2019 and 42% in 2020. I'm estimating and targeting >65% in that account in 2021.
• Robinhood doesn't give calendar year returns like that so I just had to look at the "1-yr" chart early in January 2020 to see how I did with that account in 2019. That account is maybe 40% based on SOL's picks and 60% me fishing on my own with the knowledge gained from TI and a little more experience trading...Most would call my trades there "reckless", my only trading rule for that account is wait for a nice pitch over the plate and swing for the upper-deck.
• My self-directed 401k does not allow options and is about 80% TI-AI stock plays with just a couple of my own mixed in. Doing the math from when I bought my first TI-AI play in July 2020 until today, that account is up 46% with zero additional contributions and I don't think I've ever had less than 30% of account value in cash - currently 43% cash (I would like to be more invested, I'm just not there yet and as I take profits cash accumulates). The 401k was mostly cash sweep back in July from a managed to self-directed 401k conversion.

[qfactors]

-But I digress from your original query: no, I think no one's really tracking the overall return of a hypothetical TI portfolio with all plays and equal lots accounted for, etc. and comparing that with the Nasdaq or Dow, etc. The work required would be enormous, methinks.

I will admit that I am the odd one out . When I first subscribed to SOL in Jan 2020, I asked for past updates to Jan 2018. I had tracked all his Trend Portfolio trades (not the Moderate and ETFs). I also did not track options since I do not use options. I scaled in in 3 parts and scaled out in 2 parts as suggested. I bought at the top, and sold at the bottom of his recommended range so I was taking the worst possible performance case.

For the period from Jan 2020 to last week, the SP500 was about 47%. The Trend portfolio was 102%.

I did the same for the AI portfolio. For the period from Jun 2020 to last week, the SP500 was 29%. The AI portfolio was 75%. The gift from SIEB was an incredible boost.

I can produce performance charts of these two portfolios vs the SP500, but I an still a noob at how to post pictures

Without including options and the moderate to high risk stocks, SOL core picks outperformed the markets. I usually take a 6 months review period of a new investment subscription, so I did not start using SOL picks until June/July 2020. I am still satisfied with the numbers.

What I personally like about SOL´s style is that he does not chase but waits patiently. This greatly complements my style. While I do not chase, I usually only invest on the long side and follow the short to medium trend. So I will buy high to sell higher if the trend is still there. However, if the trend turns negative, I sell and sit in cash. SOL invests in the bigger trend and allows me to catch these short term falling knives with greater confidence. There is never a rush to buy SOL´s new picks with his entry points. I have many investment subscriptions and SOL and his team is among the top handful.

Hope this help.

[Eric]

For the period from Jan 2020 to last week, the SP500 was about 47%. The Trend portfolio was 102%.

I did the same for the AI portfolio. For the period from Jun 2020 to last week, the SP500 was 29%. The AI portfolio was 75%. The gift from SIEB was an incredible boost.

So you're saying I should be less of a rebel and follow SOL's guidelines to the letter.

I can make excuses for the MU portfolio (not making a single trade from early March to early July) but I've really got no excuse for underperforming the AI portfolio.

[SOL]

I will admit that I am the odd one out . When I first subscribed to SOL in Jan 2020, I asked for past updates to Jan 2018. I had tracked all his Trend Portfolio trades (not the Moderate and ETFs). I also did not track options since I do not use options. I scaled in in 3 parts and scaled out in 2 parts as suggested. I bought at the top, and sold at the bottom of his recommended range so I was taking the worst possible performance case.

For the period from Jan 2020 to last week, the SP500 was about 47%. The Trend portfolio was 102%.

I did the same for the AI portfolio. For the period from Jun 2020 to last week, the SP500 was 29%. The AI portfolio was 75%. The gift from SIEB was an incredible boost.

I can produce performance charts of these two portfolios vs the SP500, but I an still a noob at how to post pictures

Hope this help.

We created this article especially for you, it will walk you through the process of posting images on this forum. It is really simple and once you get the hang of it, you will be posting images on the fly. Click on this link https://tacticalinvestor.com/phpbb-forum/

[AstuteShift]

The past 6 months of fully utilizing TI has been stellar but then again I have a big appetite with options.

Right now I’m practicing futures but will go very slow, and start with the micro futures since it’s less risk. Paper trading for now

[Yodean]

Right now I’m practicing futures but will go very slow, and start with the micro futures since it’s less risk. Paper trading for now

Congrats Young Yoda. Stellar returns.

I believe if I am not mistaken, both Sol and you are in NY. Perhaps you guys could consider collaborating, with you working under Sol for a specialized options spin-off service, or something along those lines.

Plus, the two of you could start working on a rough curriculum for The Modern Fourth Way School. Gurdjieff/Ouspensky's teachings are sorely needed in our New Normal world, but would benefit from a modern, re-contextualized "retelling," or risk being lost to the mists of time. That would be a pity.

[qfactors]

I will admit that I am the odd one out . When I first subscribed to SOL in Jan 2020, I asked for past updates to Jan 2018. I had tracked all his Trend Portfolio trades (not the Moderate and ETFs). I also did not track options since I do not use options. I scaled in in 3 parts and scaled out in 2 parts as suggested. I bought at the top, and sold at the bottom of his recommended range so I was taking the worst possible performance case.

For the period from Jan 2020 to last week, the SP500 was about 47%. The Trend portfolio was 102%.

I did the same for the AI portfolio. For the period from Jun 2020 to last week, the SP500 was 29%. The AI portfolio was 75%. The gift from SIEB was an incredible boost.

I can produce performance charts of these two portfolios vs the SP500, but I an still a noob at how to post pictures

Hope this help.

We created this article especially for you, it will walk you through the process of posting images on this forum. It is really simple and once you get the hang of it, you will be posting images on the fly. Click on this link https://tacticalinvestor.com/phpbb-forum/

Thanks SOL. I am a noob because I never took the time to read on how to post pictures.
But since I am called out by the master

Here are the two charts of SOL´s "model" portfolios :

So you're saying I should be less of a rebel and follow SOL's guidelines to the letter.

I can make excuses for the MU portfolio (not making a single trade from early March to early July) but I've really got no excuse for underperforming the AI portfolio.

My performances, for the portion set aside to follow SOL, are much worse than that of SOL´s "model" port. I had to get through the learning to trust SOL phase. No more excuses for 2021

In another 10 years or another holographic universe, I will obtain Astuteshift´s numbers

[SOL]

Thanks, SOL. I am a noob because I never took the time to read on how to post pictures.
But since I am called out by the master

A Wiseman makes fun of himself; A Fools lavishes himself with praise.

Great charts by the way

I meant to address the Capital letters used in my user name. The cap locks were on, and I was too lazy to go back and change the username. So the capital letters are not any sign of me trying to push myself to a higher level. All of you can use the normal format which would be Sol

[AstuteShift]

Right now I’m practicing futures but will go very slow, and start with the micro futures since it’s less risk. Paper trading for now

Congrats Young Yoda. Stellar returns.

I believe if I am not mistaken, both Sol and you are in NY. Perhaps you guys could consider collaborating, with you working under Sol for a specialized options spin-off service, or something along those lines.

Plus, the two of you could start working on a rough curriculum for The Modern Fourth Way School. Gurdjieff/Ouspensky's teachings are sorely needed in our New Normal world, but would benefit from a modern, re-contextualized "retelling," or risk being lost to the mists of time. That would be a pity.

The option trading I do is pretty simple, go with strike prices 10-30% above the entry price and go long dated LEAPs if possible on the green safe plays.

Red plays with no option play is tricky, especially if it has no volume or open interest but can be done as well. For cheaper stocks, below 100 price, I do in the money calls.

The key is to risk the same amount of money for each play. Sometimes the options are too expensive so I buy the stock or do a debit spread to lower the cost.

I aim for 100-150 percent gain. Sure there will be losers but as long as the winners are huge then who cares

In terms of 4th way, I’m still a newbie and I see we are building momentum so no need to really worry. We are the most free community really on the internet

[Eric]

I meant to address the Capital letters used in my user name. The cap locks were on, and I was too lazy to go back and change the username. So the capital letters are not any sign of me trying to push myself to a higher level. All of you can use the normal format which would be Sol

I demand that everyone call me ERIC! Never mind, that ship has sailed.

[Yodean]

Sol = 5 = the Observer

[gnosis12]

Sol = 5 = the Observer

This is what they say about level 5 the observer as per your diagram

Type Five in Brief
Fives are alert, insightful, and curious. They are able to concentrate and focus on developing complex ideas and skills. Independent, innovative, and inventive, they can also become preoccupied with their thoughts and imaginary constructs. They become detached, yet high-strung and intense. They typically have problems with eccentricity, nihilism, and isolation. At their Best: visionary pioneers, often ahead of their time, and able to see the world in an entirely new way.

The Meaning of the Arrows (in brief
When moving in their Direction of Disintegration (stress), detached Fives suddenly become hyperactive and scattered at Seven. However, when moving in their Direction of Integration (growth), avaricious, detached Fives become more self-confident and decisive, like healthy Eights

.

if Sol is a 5 i think he has found a way to combine many other modes as he speaks of being multi-modal. Sol can you speak more on being an observer when you have the time.

more on fives

We have named personality type Five The Investigator because, more than any other type, Fives want to find out why things are the way they are. They want to understand how the world works, whether it is the cosmos, the microscopic world, the animal, vegetable, or mineral kingdoms—or the inner world of their imaginations. They are always searching, asking questions, and delving into things in depth. They do not accept received opinions and doctrines, feeling a strong need to test the truth of most assumptions for themselves.

Knowledge, understanding, and insight are thus highly valued by Fives, because their identity is built around “having ideas” and being someone who has something unusual and insightful to say. For this reason, Fives are not interested in exploring what is already familiar and well-established; rather, their attention is drawn to the unusual, the overlooked, the secret, the occult, the bizarre, the fantastic, the “unthinkable.” Investigating "unknown territory"—knowing something that others do not know, or creating something that no one has ever experienced—allows Fives to have a niche for themselves that no one else occupies. They believe that developing this niche is the best way that they can attain independence and confidence.

So what do you guys, think? How much of this applies to Sol

[Triplethought]

We created this article especially for you, it will walk you through the process of posting images on this forum. It is really simple and once you get the hang of it, you will be posting images on the fly. Click on this link https://tacticalinvestor.com/phpbb-forum/

Testing adding images. Testing 1 -2 -3