Interim update Sept 30, 2021

[jlhooter]

I was doing much better by guessing than I am now by following the forecasting based on data. I completely changed my strategy because of the forecasting, and I am deeply underwater now.

You cannot profit by following a prophet, or a guru, or a furu, or even Jesus. Maybe the Adversary may help, when it comes to making $$$.

You were doing well by "guessing" because the future is unknowable - so everyone is "guessing" in a way, no matter what she says, or her resume, etc.

Just learn to improve your "guessing," also known as "speculation," which is all investing really is. Your own instincts are prolly better than you think.

Read others' stuff, like the TIT's many, ever-changing guesses, others you find that have a proven track record of success, etc., but don't follow them blindly.

Try to find their weak spots, their strong spots, and take the parts that work for you - this can take years, and lots of losses and wins along the way, to determine.

I think on some level you already know all of this.

One dude with whom I exchange investing ideas - prolly one of the best young retail investors I know personally - told me that you will never lose as much money as you will when you follow somebody else's recommended trades blindly.

For the most part, I have found this to be true, in my direct experience.

Part of this is when you come up with your own investment ideas/trades, you tend to be more cautious, unsure, careful ... this isn't a bad thing, necessarily. You'll likely size the trade smaller, have tighter stops, be more openminded about jumping ship when the trade turns south, etc.

But when you follow an "expert's" trade or forecasts, you may feel overconfident and bet bigger than you should, etc.

YD, definitely, one of your top 10 advice comments since I have joined.

[bpcw]

A lot of what you state Yodean is true. However:

TIT have a proven track record of success over the long term, no service or individual is right all of the time.

What TIT have continued to state almost exhaustively is that every correction is an opportunity and that old highs will be taken out so by focusing more on the long term and being patient even if you take a hit here and there you will be fine. What we have here is people getting upset about short term predictions that TIT have admitted wasn't great of late and I have huge respect for Sol stating this instead of pretending otherwise.

I also believe and have found this out after a little pain that TIT provide a lot of priceless data and a lot of great trades but you must pick and choose your trades and decide on your own strategy, lots of reccomended suggestions of strategies. They cannot cover every possible person's unique profile with an exact strategy, and I think you kind of make this point in your own unique way!

[outof thebox]

A lot of what you state Yodean is true. However:

TIT have a proven track record of success over the long term, no service or individual is right all of the time.

What TIT have continued to state almost exhaustively is that every correction is an opportunity and that old highs will be taken out so by focusing more on the long term and being patient even if you take a hit here and there you will be fine. What we have here is people getting upset about short term predictions that TIT have admitted wasn't great of late and I have huge respect for Sol stating this instead of pretending otherwise.

I also believe and have found this out after a little pain that TIT provide a lot of priceless data and a lot of great trades but you must pick and choose your trades and decide on your own strategy, lots of reccomended suggestions of strategies. They cannot cover every possible person's unique profile with an exact strategy, and I think you kind of make this point in your own unique way!

I agree with your take BPCW, everyone want's Sol to be some sort of master or leader, and he never claimed to be either nor does he seek it. I am going to post my views in a separate post so as to not clog up yours.

[outof thebox]

If one looks at the charts closely, you will notice that the rally that Sol spoke of did start, albeit a bit late. It was actually quite strong from June to August. Take a look at the chart below. From a low of about 30K the Dow rallied to 34K, that’s a pretty darn good rally.


And it would have continued had Powell not purposely come out swinging hard, just before he opened his mouth Dow futures were up over 250 points, I think the date was Aug 16th. Then again the markets attempted to rally and suddenly CPI miraculously printed higher, even though energy prices dropped quite a bit. TIT can’t be blamed for deliberate market takedowns. I have never seen the Fed so rabid before; at least not in the past 20 years

let’s look at the great calls. Before Trump won Sol stated that if he won and the markets tanked it would be a buying opportunity. Bingo

He also made great calls on BTC I made over 200% on the GBTC trade

What about his out of this world call on the dollar when everyone thought it was doomed. Note he also predicted years in advance that the Euro would trade on par with the dollar

His call on the COVID crash was mind-blowing, a lone voice in the dark against almost everyone, that took some balls when the whole world was stating that the end was here

He also made a great call on Palladium this year, shortly after issuing a buy it surged, yes it pulled back but individuals could have taken money off the table

Let’s not forget his calls on the market topping this year. That was a long-term call. The short-term call was rallies in between. Individuals could have focused on the long-term call as some did. Why aren't those same people complaining not focusing on that simple fact. Why did you choose to ignore the long term outlook and focus on the short term one. What about saying WOW his long term call was on the money, however, the focus is only on the short term call. Yeah I Fucked up also. While I did take some money of the table, I let greed seep in as I wanted to more. I could have listened to the long-term advice and taken more money off the table considering how much I made in 2020 and 2021, but no I wanted to be a pig and as Sol states pig’s get slaughtered.and for that I take the blame.

TIT’s track record over the years is downright incredible. Oh, by the way he called the Bottom and Top almost to the month in the precious metals back in 2011. On silver bullion alone, you would have netted close to 1000%.

Is he perfect, no he is not and who the hell is? Do I wish TIT could have predicted the short term trend better for this year? Hell, yeah I wish they could have, but like I am taking the blame for focusing on the short term instead of the long term others should also do the same.

Going forward I will focus on their long-term outlooks, for that is where they truly shine. Sol is already stating that Bitcoin could be putting in a long-term bottom, so I am going to slowly start building my position in it.

One other thing, Sol has not chastized a single person for challenging him nor as far as I have seen deleted a single post. I belong to several other forums and I can tell you that the owners of those sites don’t like to be challenged.

If you are going to knock him down then be fair enough to also give him credit where credit is due. I am not sure I would be able to keep calm if I were in his place. With my temperament I would probably cursing already. To his credit he has not even attempted to defend himself or take anyone down.

Like Bpcw I was impressed that Sol had the guts to state that they got the short-term trend wrong. That my man takes guts, for it is easy to bask in glory but very hard to admit a mistake.

[LoriPrecisely]

Thank you everyone for posting your thoughts.

Yodean: Thank you for the wisdom, lots of gems in your post.


OutoftheBox: "Going forward I will focus on their long-term outlooks, for that is where they truly shine."
I will keep this in mind. I am not focused on the long-term so much.
I want to trade for a living, so I am focused on the short term.
"If you are going to knock him down..."
I didn't think the comments were knocking him down, but maybe you are right.
I am sure he feels a bit stressed at the moment, probably more so because he has a responsibility to his customers. I paid him because he has more experience, knowledge and skill than I do, and I have learned a LOT from him and others on this forum.
But, you have to admit, Yodean is right, a lot of this is guesswork. And, I trusted the service enough to change what I was doing to follow the guidance. I am fully responsible for that decision. But, there is no denying that by following the guidance, I have blown up my accounts. I am in serious repair mode right now.
There are people making money in the markets right now.
I know, because they are taking my money.
I see no reason to sit idly for a year and wait.
That might be fine for some, but not for me.
Even selling daily Put credit spreads on the SPY is a way to make some money.
I like trading in the market, I think it is fun.
I just have to keep learning how to do it properly.

[harryg]

One other thing, Sol has not chastized a single person for challenging him nor as far as I have seen deleted a single post. I belong to several other forums and I can tell you that the owners of those sites don’t like to be challenged.

I should imagine that Sol likes to be 'challenged', provided that it's done in a respectful manner. Intelligent people who can control their egos enjoy the sparring, and understand that it can send them off in a new direction - perhaps one that they hadn't previously considered.





(That does not apply to me by the way, so don't get any funny ideas. My Word is Law).



Harry The Righteous

[bpcw]

I have an idea.

We can arrange a massive fight, and whoever wins is declared the best trader!

Sol, if you could start arranging this please as I just know everyone is going to be up for this!

[LoriPrecisely]

Now that we are positioning to buy cash-secured puts and possibly calls, I am trying to understand what the amounts would be and how that relates to lot sizes. I believe the educational materials state to keep option quantities in proportion to the number of shares you would have allocated.

So given a stock that is trading at $100 and a $10K lot size, we would have bought 100 shares per lot. Instead, if we sell a put, would we sell one put (1 put = 100 shares)? I am doing this in some of the other portfolios, but want to confirm.

Thank you!

My personal opinion...
I would not buy Puts or Calls right now. Disclaimer-I have not read all of the latest update yet. So if Sol is telling you to do that then don't listen to me.

Look at an inexpensive stock, such as AFRM or ASAN. They are stable. Or, if you can afford AMD. Sell a Cash Secured Put out of the money on a down day. The premiums for a Put are generally higher on down days. I prefer short time frames because there is less time for the stock to move too much.

Today, AFRM is at 19.29. So sell a cash secured Put for 18.50 because that is where previous resistance was. Choose this Friday as expiration. You can make $60 in a week for doing a few clicks of your mouse. Two things to consider...you have to have the $1850. available to purchase the shares if the price drops to or below that amount, and you must be willing to own the shares. You can then sell covered calls against them, or hold onto them, or sell them.

Or, you can lower your strike price to $18 and extend it out a week to Oct 14, and make $90.

There are so many ways to make money in the market. It is really cool.

Edit to say, I wanted to add something Yodean posted, but I couldn't find it. But, he posted his parameters for time duration, and some other valuable information.

[outof thebox]

OutoftheBox: "Going forward I will focus on their long-term outlooks, for that is where they truly shine."
I will keep this in mind. I am not focused on the long-term so much.
I want to trade for a living, so I am focused on the short term.
"If you are going to knock him down..."
I didn't think the comments were knocking him down, but maybe you are right.
I am sure he feels a bit stressed at the moment, probably more so because he has a responsibility to his customers. I paid him because he has more experience, knowledge and skill than I do, and I have learned a LOT from him and others on this forum.
But, you have to admit, Yodean is right, a lot of this is guesswork. And, I trusted the service enough to change what I was doing to follow the guidance. I am fully responsible for that decision. But, there is no denying that by following the guidance, I have blown up my accounts. I am in serious repair mode right now.
There are people making money in the markets right now.
I know, because they are taking my money.
I see no reason to sit idly for a year and wait.
That might be fine for some, but not for me.
Even selling daily Put credit spreads on the SPY is a way to make some money.
I like trading in the market, I think it is fun.
I just have to keep learning how to do it properly.

FYI my comments were not directed at any particular individual.

Short term trading is hard, even when all the conditions are right you can make some silly mistakes. I am talking from experience. If you are going to play the short term game, then let me offer a suggestion, this is something i learned the hard way after losing some serious money. It is best to trade when the short term trend matches with the long term; the chance for whipsaw is significantly less. Focus on the less riskier strategies like selling puts and covered calls. And most importantly, start small. All this sounds simple, but I wish someone had to told me this when I started out, would have saved me a lot of pain and misery. You will survive this like I did and you will be a lot wiser. However, I think you will probably get to that stage faster than I did.

In general Yodean is right but only when dealing with average analysts. Just look at SOL' long term track record that is what counts. Oh If I am not mistaken SOL stated that long term BTC would fall hard and that was when it was trading well above 50K. I might be mistaken but I am also sure he said something along those lines. The recent trades were based on intermediate trends If i am not mistaken. I think its was wizards of wall street or something like that, that said if you win 60% you are doing good. Sol's long term accuracy is way above that. I would take his long term guess over anyone else's.

[LoriPrecisely]

I have an idea.

We can arrange a massive fight, and whoever wins is declared the best trader!

Sol, if you could start arranging this please as I just know everyone is going to be up for this!

I don't like fights, but I love to philosophize.
Let us all guess what Putin's next move will be,
or Powell's, or who will get hit with the next geo-engineered hurricane.
By the way, we have not heard from AstuteShift lately.
I wonder if he is doing okay.

[SOL]

I have an idea.

We can arrange a massive fight, and whoever wins is declared the best trader!

Sol, if you could start arranging this please as I just know everyone is going to be up for this!

Well, seeing you were a boxer once, I will let you spot for me, and as Harry's word is law, he can be the referee. now with the Jedi Jesus behind you, and with Harry as the Referee how could i possibly lose

However, in all seriousness, a mental spar is 10x more exhilarating for it takes a lot more skill (I think, could be wrong) to silence someone mentally than it does physically. The loser will have to sing a love song to Biden, Trudeau or Liz

[SOL]

One other thing, Sol has not chastized a single person for challenging him nor as far as I have seen deleted a single post. I belong to several other forums and I can tell you that the owners of those sites don’t like to be challenged.

I should imagine that Sol likes to be 'challenged', provided that it's done in a respectful manner. Intelligent people who can control their egos enjoy the sparring, and understand that it can send them off in a new direction - perhaps one that they hadn't previously considered.





(That does not apply to me by the way, so don't get any funny ideas. My Word is Law).



Harry The Righteous

Harry, you do have a great way of looking at things, however, I get a bit nervous when you state that in some cases that viewpoint might not apply to you. I feel like you are telling me to cross the drawbridge after assuring me that there are dolphins swimming under the moat. Midway across you say oops those dolphins on closer inspection look like alligators.

[bpcw]

However, in all seriousness, a mental spar is 10x more exhilarating for it takes a lot more skill (I think, could be wrong) to silence someone mentally than it does physically. The loser will have to sing a love song to Biden, Trudeau or Liz

That is very true. I had a number of run ins with my ex pastor, he is basically a narcissist, once I'd worked him out I determined that nothing he would say would offend me, he couldn't handle me just stating what I thought and not taking any offense at his manipulative words.

They don't like it up em!

https://youtu.be/ejmFSN2qBG0

https://youtu.be/mRbUAVcY7d8

[Yodean]

My 2c: when "comparing" results, you can't cherry-pick specific predictions, etc.

You need precise CAGR, over a long-term time period, that is independently verifiable. Those who have been doing this for the length of time I have and made and lost millions of USD will know what I am talking about.

Until that is available, any paid financial advising service is suspect - potentially profitable during bull markets, perhaps, but still suspect, in my books.

Always do your own due diligence.

Not all of us are meant for this game, let's face it.

[Yodean]

YD, definitely, one of your top 10 advice comments since I have joined.

@ExcelNinja: thanks - I talk a lot of smack, but I guess occasionally something rings true.

Btw, a retraction of sorts - for Spinning The Wheel, I've begun using them Greeks!

The delta stuff ... been making a lot mo' $$$ that way, lol.