Interim update Sept 30, 2021

[SOL]

The next update will be sent out tonight (Sept 30). That is when our mailing list will start to fire them. I have been looking at the sentiment data and paying close attention to how the Fed and bank of England are acting. In addition, various world leaders' actions reveal specific data points.

One thing is clear if anyone is looking for a great leader to emerge, forget it. That's not happening. The best that one can expect is not so S***Y leader. Everyone is lying and pushing valueless values. They take the high moral ground while standing on their people's heads, but they don't pay the price for taking that road. It's all talk; their action reveals all; at the end of the day, they are concubines selling themselves to the highest bidder.

Going through all this data and analysing all these data points takes time because we are dealing with psychopaths now; they change their game on the fly and for one reason only; more money. Under such conditions, one thing will never change, and disasters will equate to even more significant opportunities. Have you ever wondered why the extremely rich take so much pleasure in watching others suffer? They could easily make a fortune by milking millions of happy cows, yet they take pleasure in making the cow cry, doing her work until she almost breaks and then giving her the bare sustenance to ensure she does not die. There is only one reason for this, they get off on extreme pain and making money without creating a sea of misery is not enough for them.

Lastly, our leading bottoming indicators have surprised us, they almost trading in the extremely oversold ranges on the monthly charts. They have never failed to call a bottom, but do not confuse this with a clear botto
m. Think of it as a sign that we are closer to a bottom than a top. Usually, when this happens, there is a rally followed by one more downward leg. However, the good news is that the ensuing rally is both robust in time and intensity.

[JayceP]

Good morning Sol!

Thanks for the follow-up and the Interim update.

Usually, when this happens, there is a rally followed by one more downward leg. However, the good news is that the ensuing rally is both robust in time and intensity.

Just to clarify, you are (still) referring to the short-term bottom/rally, when you mention this, right? (In other words, the massive correction that might come to pass (~Q4@2022-Q2@2023), mentioned in recent MUs, is still on the horizon?)

Thanks again and have a good weekend!

EDIT: Sorry to even ask this question ahah... I can only suspect that 100s of people will ask the very same one when you send the Interim update tonight.

J

[SOL]

Good morning Sol!

Thanks for the follow-up and the Interim update.

Usually, when this happens, there is a rally followed by one more downward leg. However, the good news is that the ensuing rally is both robust in time and intensity.

Just to clarify, you are (still) referring to the short-term bottom/rally, when you mention this, right? (In other words, the massive correction that might come to pass (~Q4@2022-Q2@2023), mentioned in recent MUs, is still on the horizon?)

Thanks again and have a good weekend!

EDIT: Sorry to even ask this question ahah... I can only suspect that 100s of people will ask the very same one when you send the Interim update tonight.

J

We had a strong rally from June to Aug, but its legs were cut short, so we are still expecting another rally but this rally is expected to falter, and there should be one more downward leg. So the next downward leg can be referred to as a long-term selling climax. Selling climaxes always trigger strong turnarounds that last for months and, in many cases years. While confirming a bottom is in the works, our long-term indicators indicate one more downward leg before a long-term bottom takes hold. Kind of like what happened in 2008. It looked like the markets had bottomed in late 2008, but this was followed by one more downward leg, and they bottomed iN march of 2009 and that led to the birth of a monstrous bull market

[bpcw]

They have never failed to call a bottom, but do not confuse this with a clear bottom.

Does that mean we might get a dirty bottom!

That's not a serious question by the way!

[SOL]

They have never failed to call a bottom, but do not confuse this with a clear bottom.

Does that mean we might get a dirty bottom!

That's not a serious question by the way!

We need a bit of humour during these times. We could get a dirty bottom, as in a bottom that takes time to bottom, a bottom that needs more than one swipe, or we might have good old toilet paper on hand that wipes with one strike. I will let the honourable Harry intervene with one of his witty comments

What's given is a nice bottom is in the works. Now who can say no to a nice bottom especially if it's round

[Budge]

or we might have good old toilet paper on hand that wipes with one strike.

As long as it ain't Bronco Brand

[Expert]

You had previously mentioned that the upcoming cybernetic bull market may trigger a FOAB, for the first time in decades. You had mentioned that cannonballing can be used to make a small fortune.
Is that still likely to come to pass?

[Yodean]

You had previously mentioned that the upcoming cybernetic bull market may trigger a FOAB, for the first time in decades. You had mentioned that cannonballing can be used to make a small fortune.
Is that still likely to come to pass?

Very likely, but my base case atm is that this will likely occur sometime in '23.

[jonnyfrank]

I am not buying into the "rally before big dip" nonsense at this time. Sorry....I almost fell for that before. The black swan of war is flying a little too low for my taste.

[Expert]

Good morning Sol!

Thanks for the follow-up and the Interim update.

Usually, when this happens, there is a rally followed by one more downward leg. However, the good news is that the ensuing rally is both robust in time and intensity.

Just to clarify, you are (still) referring to the short-term bottom/rally, when you mention this, right? (In other words, the massive correction that might come to pass (~Q4@2022-Q2@2023), mentioned in recent MUs, is still on the horizon?)

Thanks again and have a good weekend!

EDIT: Sorry to even ask this question ahah... I can only suspect that 100s of people will ask the very same one when you send the Interim update tonight.

J

We had a strong rally from June to Aug, but its legs were cut short, so we are still expecting another rally but this rally is expected to falter, and there should be one more downward leg. So the next downward leg can be referred to as a long-term selling climax. Selling climaxes always trigger strong turnarounds that last for months and, in many cases years. While confirming a bottom is in the works, our long-term indicators indicate one more downward leg before a long-term bottom takes hold. Kind of like what happened in 2008. It looked like the markets had bottomed in late 2008, but this was followed by one more downward leg, and they bottomed iN march of 2009 and that led to the birth of a monstrous bull market

So initially, this rally / correction was to rhyme with the 1973-1974 rally / correction. But now, the market is more likely to mimic the 2008-2009 crash, with a second downward leg expected to occur like it did in 2009?

[Yodean]

So initially, this rally / correction was to rhyme with the 1973-1974 rally / correction. But now, the market is more likely to mimic the 2008-2009 crash, with a second downward leg expected to occur like it did in 2009?

my 2c: i wouldn't get hung up too much on exact comparisons to specific time frames, personally. you could also make a case this is a bit like '98, or 2015 even. somebody I ran across recently also made a somewhat convincing case that q4 '22 will be similar to q4 in 2011, based on interest rates, market action, USD, etc.

future is ultimately unknowable ... risk management is the most important thing, long-term.

[SOL]

Good morning Sol!

Thanks for the follow-up and the Interim update.



Just to clarify, you are (still) referring to the short-term bottom/rally, when you mention this, right? (In other words, the massive correction that might come to pass (~Q4@2022-Q2@2023), mentioned in recent MUs, is still on the horizon?)

Thanks again and have a good weekend!

EDIT: Sorry to even ask this question ahah... I can only suspect that 100s of people will ask the very same one when you send the Interim update tonight.

J

We had a strong rally from June to Aug, but its legs were cut short, so we are still expecting another rally but this rally is expected to falter, and there should be one more downward leg. So the next downward leg can be referred to as a long-term selling climax. Selling climaxes always trigger strong turnarounds that last for months and, in many cases years. While confirming a bottom is in the works, our long-term indicators indicate one more downward leg before a long-term bottom takes hold. Kind of like what happened in 2008. It looked like the markets had bottomed in late 2008, but this was followed by one more downward leg, and they bottomed iN march of 2009 and that led to the birth of a monstrous bull market

So initially, this rally / correction was to rhyme with the 1973-1974 rally / correction. But now, the market is more likely to mimic the 2008-2009 crash, with a second downward leg expected to occur like it did in 2009?

If you look at both timelines, they both had a second downward leg. You had a rally in 1973 almost around the same timeline as you had a rally in 2008, and then they both failed and trended lower. A bottom was put in 1974; The difference was that it took longer for the markets to bottom in 1974 than in 2009. Otherwise, the patterns are quite similar. In the 1970's we were a much stronger nation; we were still strong in manufacturing, we had a relatively stronger middle class, and more importantly, our debt was incredibly low, so the Fed had more room to play with. Things are significantly worse today.

Don't fixate on the nuances of the pattern too much as history does not repeat itself. It tends to rhyme. The main factor to focus on is there is likely one more downward leg, and from a long-term perspective, an incredible opportunity is in the works. The odds of MOAB are high. A FOAB takes more work, and it's possible we could get one, but you can't predict in advance if it will be triggered or not. You just look at the data, and if one is triggered, all cards will fall in place; if they don't fall in place, no matter how much we wish for one, it won't be triggered. However, a MOAB is a potent signal and certainly warrants the cannonball strategy

[Eric]

Still holding my breath for a really of some sort. Several September long calls expired worthless and the bulk of my hyper aggressive portfolio is January 2023 long calls that are looking really bad...

[Yodean]

Still holding my breath for a really of some sort. Several September long calls expired worthless and the bulk of my hyper aggressive portfolio is January 2023 long calls that are looking really bad...

My "line in the sand" is USD 115 on a weekly, closing basis. As long as that holds, I'm bullish on q4 for equities.

If that line is crossed, I'm selling a bit of my portfolio and throwing on some type of hedge.

[bobdylan]

Has anyone received the new update yet? I haven't seen anything hit my inbox.