Interim Market Update Sept 17, 2022

[SOL]

All indices look to either "Make it" or Break it" by the end of this week.

On the short-term timelines, I concur. On the long term timelines, all break events have served as the basis for the inception of the next massive bull

[jonnyfrank]

Watching the big money players hold the line on NASDAQ today seems to be telling. If they really want to take out the average Joe and Joanne they will work together to crash the DOW to 20,000, and fast. The way interest rates melted up today was rather scary. I have a very bad feeling about this. But then again, it is a "feeling" and I recognize it as such. I am neutral now and have cashed out of most short positions. We can talk about the long term all we want but it is still scary to watch all of the manipulation. While we all know evil exists, it is scary when it becomes brazen and says to hell with deception.

[Yodean]

Watching the big money players hold the line on NASDAQ today seems to be telling. If they really want to take out the average Joe and Joanne they will work together to crash the DOW to 20,000, and fast. The way interest rates melted up today was rather scary. I have a very bad feeling about this. But then again, it is a "feeling" and I recognize it as such. I am neutral now and have cashed out of most short positions. We can talk about the long term all we want but it is still scary to watch all of the manipulation. While we all know evil exists, it is scary when it becomes brazen and says to hell with deception.

Dude, the bottom's in! More or less ... I think?!

The closes are the most important.

[LoriPrecisely]

September is also viewed as one of the worst months of the year,

And, we were forecasting a RALLY just to be contrarian.

[jonnyfrank]

Y, the manipulations have me concerned.

[jonnyfrank]

September is also viewed as one of the worst months of the year,

And, we were forecasting a RALLY just to be contrarian.

I hear ya. Not hitting the mark here.

[Yodean]

*****

This was me, most of the year, actually ...

[xkosmox]

You're not alone xD

[MarkD]

Euro and British Pound are at dollar parity, so pressure exists to bail out allies, albeit slowly with strings.

US treasury has taken way too much money out of the economy via taxation (% of GDP) which leads to economic weakness.

And then there's reality,

https://imgur.com/L0S8Cdv

[symbios]

After the fall yesterday, I have paper loss of 25% of my portfolio and I’m starting to feel the pain. My guess is, it will rebound when I’m at 50% paper loss!

[harryg]

*****

This was me, most of the year, actually ...

Yes, this is a timely reminder. Makes me think of CGC...

However, flip it upside down ...

[Tobeornot]

Every now and then and lately it seem more often, the Fed purposely does something to give is allies a better deal. Remember in 2008, the Markets could have stabilized earlier, but they threw Lehman under the bus and then all hell broke lose. I remember feeling totally lost and almost sold all my stuff near the bottom. A combination of stubbornness and logic (based on looking at old historical charts) made me hold and boy was I glad I did. However, I went through a few months of real pain and most of it was self inflicted as I never invested money I did not need. In theory I knew I would not touch this money for decades to come, but I was acting like I needed it yesterday.

In the end it comes down to several things

1) Are you investing money you need to pay your daily bills or meet your living expenses for the next 12-18 months. If the answer is yes, this is a big mistake. I only invest money that I won't need unless SHTF

2) Your mindset: Do you mentally understand the difference between a paper loss and an actual loss. If you are really investing for the long haul and you like the companies you have a position in, then why aren't you celebrating, instead of panicking. The odds are very high that all these companies will more than double in a fears and probably 5X under 10. Instead we cry and focus on the loss today and not the massive gains that will be made in the future. I too am guilty of this syndrome, though i am getting better and better and seeing it as illusory force trying to separate me from my money.

During bad times I try to check my portfolio as little as possible unless I am making new buys.

Some strategies that I used or customized after reading a lot of Sol's posts on options

1) I sold some the stocks I own that were slightly down or slightly in the black. I then used these funds to sell 12-24 months on the same stocks I sold. In some cases I got ridiculously high premiums and if filled at those prices, I will get in at ridiculously low prices. Based on what I sold some of the stocks, if get filled via the puts I sold, with the premium I could get in 50% lower

On some dividend stocks, I did the following. I sold covered calls and use the premium to buy some puts (Pure SOL strategy)

ALL in ALL the markets really show you how weak you can be. I always thought I was a tough ass but Miss Market put a change to the in 2008-2009. Now I would say i am lean ass but waiting to become a mean one at least as far as the markets are concerned.

Never take anything for granted when it comes to the markets and one thing I thank TI is for reinforcing the simple principle that from a long term perspective every disaster is an opportunity. If it were not the world should have ended decades ago

[Yodean]

Indeed, we're in box #1 or #2 of your graph.

To the moon, baby!

[Yodean]

*****

Fear expressed in hedging ...

[Do-or-Die]

*****

Fear expressed in hedging ...

Some sort of turnaround is in the works, the question: is this the final bottom or is there one more leg down. Things like this have a habit on ending on a note of extreme hysteria. While people are scared I think they are not hysterical.