Interim Market Update Sept 17, 2022

[SOL]

After this short interim update, an update will be emailed. However, going forward I will also post the following message. Update scheduled to be sent in 48 hours, but could be delayed up to 72 hours depending on the data we have to process. The field is getting dicey; data is being rampantly manipulated. I will explain shortly why we feel this way

First, the thrust stage has been thwarted due to a mini-black swan event, a higher-than-expected CPI print, which conveniently like Powell's overly aggressive stance pierced the rally. However, sentiment is far from bullish. In fact, we are noticing the discrepancy factor increasing. Last year it was roughly 2 points, it is now 6 plus points. For example AAII current sentiment is as follows Bulls 26 Neutral 27 and bears 46. Our readings (though not fully tabulated) are coming in as follows
Bearish 52 Bulls 20 Neutrals 28

As you can see there the difference in our readings and the AAII readings are widening

It is hard to envision a complete crash at this stage, it would deny the big players the chance to offload all their holdings at a higher price, something they take pride in doing.

Likely short-term outcome

Weaker indices like the Dow and SPX are likely to test their June lows, while stronger indices (at least for now) could very well put in higher lows. Ideally, this event occurs when Bearish sentiment soars past 55 or bullish sentiment drops below 15.00. If this comes to pass then the thrust stage will be revisited. At this point, we are in between the base and the "push" stage.


The Long term Outlook (timeline of 12 plus months)

These timelines are changing also due to the manipulation factor; in other words, all timelines are expanding. However, the long-term outlook remains decidedly bullish, the AI super trend has just started and this will fuel massive runs in the semiconductor and cybersecurity sectors plus several others.

In the update, I will examine all three timelines.

[SOL]

Part 2 of the update that was sent out on the 11th was meant to be sent two days later. Instead, there will be three parts. Part 2 will be sent out tomorrow it is almost complete. Some stocks will be reviewed. Part 3 will be sent out later and will only contain (unless something pressing appears) stock reviews, with updates on exit points.

[Yodean]

First, the thrust stage has been thwarted due to a mini-black swan event, a higher-than-expected CPI print,

The reaction to a slightly unexpected CPI print was extreme, to say the least. With that said, I don't tend to use the term "black swan" to describe something that was quite possible (slightly higher CPI), although less likely than a slightly lower CPI - before the actual CPI came out.

To me, Dark Swans are unexpected events that are not on anyone's radar. Like Brandon suddenly having a heart attack and dying. That sort of a thing.

I suspect not a few subs are getting a bit caught up in the various stages described in the recent TIT publications: "thrust," "base," "plunge," etc.

Although interesting, it's still a cognitive model - a specific forecast about an unknown future - and trying to fit evolving facts awkwardly into a previously constructed, potentially incorrect model generally isn't a great idea, at least for me.

[jonnyfrank]

Y, I tend to agree with your summary. It all sounds like investment porn at this point---thrust, plunge, etc. I also agree with SOL that all kinds of data is being manipulated, and at this point we all know the in-your-face lies all politicians are feeding us. There was once a certain honor to getting caught in a lie and at least admitting your were busted. This US administration knows no virtue.

[bpcw]

What about a grey swan!

[SOL]

What about a grey swan!

Good point. A mini black swan event could be classified as a grey event. What is certain is that sentiment data is being manipulated. Hence what we stated many times over the years is coming to pass. The higher the money supply, the more power the PTBs would have. They have enough firepower now to mess around with the short-term trend. Unfortunately, really smart players who understood how the markets worked are now going to fall for the illusion that the PTB has created that by controlling the short term trend they can control the long term trend. While I won't say they won't ever be able to control the short term trend, the national debt will have to soar at least to 65 trillion for them to have any chance to even control the intermediate trend

[SOL]

The sentiment data is definitely being manipulated. When you compare our latest readings to that of AAII there is a significant deviation. This will be discussed in the next issue. suffice to say, the idea is to muddy the waters and create the illusion that it's time to short when it's not and vice versa. As a result of what we discovered, we will be adjusting our historical average (for bullish sentiment) from 39 to 36 or 37, depending on what the data reveals

For now, they lack the power to control the intermediate and long-term trends.

[Yodean]

Y, I tend to agree with your summary. It all sounds like investment porn at this point---thrust, plunge, etc. I also agree with SOL that all kinds of data is being manipulated ...

That porn analogy is pretty funny - for some reason, despite my perverse mind, I didn't think about those terms this way until you mentioned it. I was thinking of them more in terms of martial arts stuff. But good on ya ...

Because sentiment data appears to be increasingly unreliable, I've been trying to combine sentiment data, technical analysis, and COT data together - trying to find situations where they all more or less line up in the same direction.

At least with COT, you've got the whole "money where your mouth is" thing going on ...

[djanderle]

Will someone tell me what the acronym PTB means.

[MarkD]

Powers That Be

[jonnyfrank]

"POWERS THAT BE" would be my guess. Hopefully not "Puro Tango Blast", which is a street gang here in Texas.

[LoriPrecisely]

From the most recent update:
Short term outlook
It's going to be volatile and weaker indices such as the Dow and SPX could test their June lows, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 should put in higher lows. Unless the narrative has completely changed (and this has never happened in history before), the markets need to mount a decent head fake (a strong rally that is designed to fool the bulls that all is well) before the market takes out the June lows (by a significant margin).

I just want to clarify this paragraph. TI is still of the opinion that a strong rally will occur before the market descends again to something lower than the June lows?

Today, we are just slightly above the June lows~~~~~

AMD:

• low : July 5 - $72
  high : Aug 4 - $104
  .......today - $75

AMAT:

• low : July 5 - $82
  high: Aug 4 - $111
  .......today - $87

GOOGL:

• low: May 24 - $102
  high: Aug 15 - $122
  ........today - $103

MSFT:

• low: June 13 - $241
  high: Aug 15 - $293
  ........today - $242

FINX:

• low: June 16 - $21
  high: Aug 11 - $27
  ........today - $22

TQQQ:

• low: June 16 - $21
  high: Aug 15 - $39
  ....... today - $25

[DOCLUC]

From the most recent update:
Short term outlook
It's going to be volatile and weaker indices such as the Dow and SPX could test their June lows, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 should put in higher lows. Unless the narrative has completely changed (and this has never happened in history before), the markets need to mount a decent head fake (a strong rally that is designed to fool the bulls that all is well) before the market takes out the June lows (by a significant margin).

I just want to clarify this paragraph. TI is still of the opinion that a strong rally will occur before the market descends again to something lower than the June lows?

--------------------------
Maybe it is because english is not my mother tongue (if this is the case, sorry) but it is not clear to me too.

[harryg]

From the most recent update:
Short term outlook
It's going to be volatile and weaker indices such as the Dow and SPX could test their June lows, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 should put in higher lows. Unless the narrative has completely changed (and this has never happened in history before), the markets need to mount a decent head fake (a strong rally that is designed to fool the bulls that all is well) before the market takes out the June lows (by a significant margin).

I just want to clarify this paragraph. TI is still of the opinion that a strong rally will occur before the market descends again to something lower than the June lows?

--------------------------
Maybe it is because english is not my mother tongue (if this is the case, sorry) but it is not clear to me too.

Yes, TI expect at least Nasdaq & Russell to rally before dropping ("Short Term Outlook")

[SOL]

Markets will react sharply after the Fed's decision. Taking a somewhat intelligent guess (I know it's an oxymoron), the markets should drop then close off their lows, if not close in the green. This could occur today after the Fed's decision or on a delayed basis unless of course, the Fed decides to throw even more cold water onto an already frozen landscape. Odds suggest that the markets are looking for any sign to mount a strong relief rally.