Interim Market Update Sept 17, 2022

[Yodean]

Something I am keeping an eye on is the market price action between 1400 and 1500 today. If history is any guide, the overall direction during that time period will be opposite how the markets will trend in the days ahead.

Not trading on this type of signal, but interesting nonetheless.

[LoriPrecisely]

Something I am keeping an eye on is the market price action between 1400 and 1500 today. If history is any guide, the overall direction during that time period will be opposite how the markets will trend in the days ahead.

Not trading on this type of signal, but interesting nonetheless.

Yodean, Will you please tell me what the 1400-1500 price is for.
The markets just collapsed on the 5 minute chart , the Dow by 500 points, Naz by 200.

[tkpol]

He means 2:00 -3:00 PM

[frenszisz8]

I strongly believe he meant the time window of 14:00 to 15:00 in eastern time, when the FED "news" are expected.

[PuppBaby]

I strongly believe he meant the time window of 14:00 to 15:00 in eastern time, when the FED "news" are expected.

End of day strong rally guys? Seems whimsical this drop.

[LoriPrecisely]

I strongly believe he meant the time window of 14:00 to 15:00 in eastern time, when the FED "news" are expected.

Thank you for that clarification.

[PuppBaby]

Haha as expected! Lets see if it holds

[chippermon]

Something I am keeping an eye on is the market price action between 1400 and 1500 today. If history is any guide, the overall direction during that time period will be opposite how the markets will trend in the days ahead.

Not trading on this type of signal, but interesting nonetheless.

Basically what I have noticed in the past, especially related to currency crosses, is that the smart money or smartish money, stands out of the way when these numbers or policy decisions come out. So typically what happens is price searches for liquidity. After all, volatility is a function of available liquidity. Since there is very little, the book gets swept hence the volatile up and down. Once the news is digested then the players get back in the game.

[SOL]

on a separate note what many will fail to note is that these rate increases have nothing to do with inflation as let's be honest real inflation based on hard money theory was always an issue. The real issue is the currency wars and the race to the bottom. As the US is throwing Japan and the EU under the bus, they need to bolster their currency. While this is referred to as a soft weapon, it packs a rather solid punch. With these rate hikes, the US has effectively made sure that in the developed world, Japan, Most of Europe, a large part of Latin America, and South Korea it will reign supreme unless they decide to switch sides. Other developing nations will in the short term suffer but their currencies will balance out sometime in 2023 as they are not playing with Team USA.

Applying this to the market it means that the Fed is willing to sacrifice the market in the short term to win the long-term game. The next step if the Fed is going to slow the rate at which it hikes. If it slows down which it should as suddenly inflation numbers will be made to look reasonable, and then Bonds and Bitcoin will bottom out first. A second albeit much stronger signal will come from the US dollar topping; this is projected to occur in 2023. All in all the Fed is still helping its friends by driving prices so low to create a mouthwatering opportunity for its allies, while making the regular folks and some of the astute folks assume that we are in a new paradigm when in fact we are not. For now, they can only control the short-term timelines

[LoriPrecisely]

Something I am keeping an eye on is the market price action between 1400 and 1500 today. If history is any guide, the overall direction during that time period will be opposite how the markets will trend in the days ahead.

Not trading on this type of signal, but interesting nonetheless.

So, the indices made a U shape in between those times.
Lots of volatility!!

[LoriPrecisely]

Something I am keeping an eye on is the market price action between 1400 and 1500 today. If history is any guide, the overall direction during that time period will be opposite how the markets will trend in the days ahead.

Not trading on this type of signal, but interesting nonetheless.

Basically what I have noticed in the past, especially related to currency crosses, is that the smart money or smartish money, stands out of the way when these numbers or policy decisions come out. So typically what happens is price searches for liquidity. After all, volatility is a function of available liquidity. Since there is very little, the book gets swept hence the volatile up and down. Once the news is digested then the players get back in the game.

This makes a lot of sense.

[chippermon]

A second albeit much stronger signal will come from the US dollar topping; this is projected to occur in 2023.

This should coincide with bottom of the equities markets after the coming massacre

[LoriPrecisely]

There was a LOT of volume in the last 2 hours of the day.
And, everything ended in the red AGAIN.

[Yodean]

And, everything ended in the red AGAIN.

No, not really. There are some interesting divergences starting to develop.

Yes, equities went down, and USD went up a bit. This is expected. Safe haven play, etc.

TLT/TMF rallied hard - in the past little while, when equities went down hard, long bonds went down with them. So you've got a bit of the old relationship between equities and long bonds again - i.e. stocks down, bonds up, and vice versa.

It's only one day, of course, so doesn't mean much.

The precious metals are quite interesting. Silver and gold showed a tremendous amount of strength today.

Usually when USD rallies, silver and gold goes down. Same when Fed hikes +/- "hawkish" speech. Yet gold and silver went up today. Plus last week's COT showing smart money mostly relative long precious metals.

[Yodean]

This should coincide with bottom of the equities markets after the coming massacre

Another one?! Lol ... I would say this year thus far has been a bit of a massacre ... can't wait until the next one?