Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Interim Market updates will only be posted here from now on
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LoriPrecisely
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by LoriPrecisely »

SOL wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:49 pm
LoriPrecisely wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:38 pm
SOL wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:13 pm
'This is the NDX 100, It is trading much higher than the Nasdaq
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX? ... c=fin-srch

In terms of selling, you answered your question. No one ever went broke taking profits. The markets have broken through resistance levels, so they will rally a bit more before pulling back, but the overall outlook remains the same, rally until Sept Oct. I am looking at the charts and post an update when i am done regarding short term targets
Now I am really confused.

Yesterday, you said:
"$COMPX and IXIC are the same, different systems use different symbols You can track it on yahoo. I am referencing the Nasdaq composite." https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=%5EIXIC

So, when we are watching for the trigger to sell, which one are we watching?
And, that is a different index from the one in the update?
what do you see when you click on this link?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=%5EIXIC

Then click on this
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX? ... c=fin-srch


COMPX is used by different charting systems to show the Nasdaq composite
So, when you say in the Update,
"when the Nasdaq trades in the 13,550 to 13,700 ranges",
which index are you referring to?

I am assuming the composite, because the 100 is already very close to your target numbers. But, I don't like to assume, and I don't see it specified anywhere.
"You do not have to be great to get started, but you have to get started to be great."
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SOL
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by SOL »

LoriPrecisely wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:13 pm
SOL wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:49 pm
LoriPrecisely wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:38 pm

Now I am really confused.

Yesterday, you said:
"$COMPX and IXIC are the same, different systems use different symbols You can track it on yahoo. I am referencing the Nasdaq composite." https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=%5EIXIC

So, when we are watching for the trigger to sell, which one are we watching?
And, that is a different index from the one in the update?
what do you see when you click on this link?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=%5EIXIC

Then click on this
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX? ... c=fin-srch


COMPX is used by different charting systems to show the Nasdaq composite
So, when you say in the Update,
"when the Nasdaq trades in the 13,550 to 13,700 ranges",
which index are you referring to?

I am assuming the composite, because the 100 is already very close to your target numbers. But, I don't like to assume, and I don't see it specified anywhere.
The composite

Image

Short-term trends are much harder to predict. the focus should be on the longer term but if is open to risk one can use short term trends to attempt to juice up one's gains
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

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LoriPrecisely
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by LoriPrecisely »

I am, thanks to you. :)
Selling Puts and Buying Calls, and closing the Puts with 40% profit.
Keeping the Calls. Making some money!!

Thank you, Sol, for all your hard work and devotion.
We appreciate you very much!!
"You do not have to be great to get started, but you have to get started to be great."
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by bpcw »

SOL wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:13 pm
bpcw wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:29 pm Hi Sol,

I have a couple of additional questions just for clarity.

The chart of the Nasdaq in the update appears to correlate with the Nasdaq 100 and not the composite looking at the numbers, can you confirm please?

Also is the reason for selling a number of stocks at the given Nasdaq levels to raise the first block of cash and then leave the rest for the predicted rise until October, thus reducing risk in case the big correction/crash comes earlier than expected? Obviously though ideal, we cannot expect to sell everything at the top and isn't good money management.
'This is the NDX 100, It is trading much higher than the Nasdaq
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX? ... c=fin-srch

In terms of selling, you answered your question. No one ever went broke taking profits. The markets have broken through resistance levels, so they will rally a bit more before pulling back, but the overall outlook remains the same, rally until Sept Oct. I am looking at the charts and post an update when i am done regarding short term targets
Thanks Sol!
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by Triplethought »

Yodean wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:39 pm
chippermon wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:58 am Nice call Yodean,
Thanks. The key is to make a bunch of calls, and keep making them - statistically, some of them will come true, then you get to say, "HAH! I told you so, I am a market prodigy." Lol.

In all seriousness, I surf the net a bit and try to get a sense of what most mainstream experts are saying, then consider the opposite or at least an alternative to the dominant view.

These two interviews just showed up yesterday on my feed:

*****

These interviews aren't necessarily worth watching, but I've noticed those two tend to get invited to speak on mainstream financial channels shortly after or during interim bottoms in "risk on" (i.e. equities) assets.
Thanks for posting these. Sure these guys are doom and gloomers but it pays to listen to such quacks so that at least you hear their arguments. One says inflation has peaked one says no
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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LoriPrecisely
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by LoriPrecisely »

xkosmox wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:08 pm Hmmm I think Lori's asking about the Aug 9 Market Update:
Where NDX100 being used on the first page of the pdf update,
but later pages of the pdf make reference to the Composite (not the NDX100) instead as the selling point.

Did i get that right? :mrgreen:
Yes, that is right.
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by Yodean »

Triplethought wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:45 pm Thanks for posting these. Sure these guys are doom and gloomers but it pays to listen to such quacks so that at least you hear their arguments. One says inflation has peaked one says no
Yeh, just remember that broken clocks are right twice a day. I don't like to call them (or anyone else, really) quacks because that would bias me against their arguments.

I try to find weaknesses in their outlooks and also look at their track record, etc., then assign a probability of what they saying coming to pass. As more information comes in, I change the number in my mind.

For example, Dent's mild doomsday equity scenario is not impossible - I give it maybe a 10% to 15% probability. All it would take is a Dark Swan or two landing in close proximity.

Schiff's USD failing and dying - I give it at best, 5% to 7% of this scenario occurring, in the next 5 - 10 years. The Euro, Yen, Yuan, Rubble (not mispelled, lol) will all get smashed before King USD eats dirt.

So pray to your God, but tie your horses ... :lol:
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by Triplethought »

Yodean wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:29 pm
Schiff's USD failing and dying - I give it at best, 5% to 7% of this scenario occurring, in the next 5 - 10 years. The Euro, Yen, Yuan, Rubble (not mispelled, lol) will all get smashed before King USD eats dirt.

So pray to your God, but tie your horses ... :lol:
That was my take. When you rail against the FED for "printing money" you have to factor in the rest of the world doing it too. That's what is different from US versus say the Weimer republic or Zimbabwe on the inflation front. Sure it still creates inflation. He's right that congress shouldn't be spending more. But every other country does it too so it mitigates the stupidity somewhat. As for demographics he needs to stare at a population chart of the US to confirm immigration is saving our bacon as baby boomers die off. We don't have a demographic problem right now, unlike Japan.

As for a dip in the stock market - No, not 87% dip like he predicts. But we will probably see some stock dip as the inflation slows and recession increases over the next 6 months.
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by AstuteShift »

Hyperinflation will never happen in the USA, guaranteed.

Until the dollar is replaced, which likely won’t happen in our lifetime, enjoy the dollar being king

China is fucked long term and Russia is also. That’s my thesis
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by Budge »

AstuteShift wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:47 pm Hyperinflation will never happen in the USA, guaranteed.

Until the dollar is replaced, which likely won’t happen in our lifetime, enjoy the dollar being king

China is fucked long term and Russia is also. That’s my thesis
Aha! I see your thesis and counter with this antithesis: the West is right royally fucked and it's the Dawning of the Age of Asia. (Cue celestial music).
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by SOL »

AstuteShift wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:47 pm Hyperinflation will never happen in the USA, guaranteed.

Until the dollar is replaced, which likely won’t happen in our lifetime, enjoy the dollar being king

China is fucked long term, and Russia is also. That’s my thesis
Up until very recently, you would be 100% correct. China still has to figure out its shit, but Russia experienced a monumental shift after the whole world turned on them. Without going into detail, the three strongest cultures to pay attention to are the Slavs (led by the Russians), the Chinese, and the Vietnamese (however, because the Vietnamese are small in number, one can focus on the first two. On that front, I have spent over 20 years studying Russian and Chinese from a psychological perspective. Individually they have weaknesses, but if you combine their strategies, you get something beyond human.

Nobody understands or is paying attention to this monumental shift in Russia. Russians are at the best when their backs are to the Wall, when it looks hopeless and when the normal course of action would be to surrender. Instead of surrendering, they throw everything they have and 50% more at their enemy, the stakes change from survival to total destruction of the enemy, and they won't relent until that objective is achieved. Imagine if you may a trip switch; once that switch is tripped, a transformation occurs. So the Russia of today differ from the Russians before March 2022.

Everyone is focussing on China, but we will go on record to state that without Russia, China is Kaput and China knows that. The US has a formidable navy presence (especially its Sub); using its submarines could create a blockade around China. China has no effective deterrence against the top US subs. It can take out aircraft carriers, but the sub-force will do them in. They are also weak when it comes to jet fighters, most of their planes look good on paper, but in action well, they will be blown out of the sky.

You will see Russia leave every Western-based organisation and help forge news one for the countries outside the Western sphere of control to join. Watch the Arab world completely align with Russia, and 90% of top commodity producers in the world will slowly align themselves with Russia.


Image

Something to consider US GDP is a crock of S**T. The largest component is consumer spending which is fuelled mostly by debt

GDP = C + G + I + NX

C = Equates to all consumer spending within a country’s economy, including durable goods (items with a lifespan greater than three years), nondurable goods (food & clothing), and services.

G = total government expenditures ( salaries of government employees, road construction/repair, public schools, and military expenditure)

I = the sum of a country’s investments in capital equipment, inventories, and housing.

NX = net exports or a country’s total exports less total imports.


Take out C and G, which is essentially rubbish; it does not produce anything and then focus on what really matters, which is I, and you will be shocked at what you are left with

I will stop here, for now; it's a very, very long topic. Needless to say, the slow super trend of change has begun; the first phase is slow, but who knows, maybe it could pick up intensity really fast.
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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Re: Interim Update Aug 4, 2023

Post by harryg »

SOL wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 4:56 am
Something to consider US GDP is a crock of S**T. The largest component is consumer spending which is fuelled mostly by debt

GDP = C + G + I + NX

C = Equates to all consumer spending within a country’s economy, including durable goods (items with a lifespan greater than three years), nondurable goods (food & clothing), and services.

G = total government expenditures ( salaries of government employees, road construction/repair, public schools, and military expenditure)

I = sum of a country’s investments spent on capital equipment, inventories, and housing.

NX = net exports or a country’s total exports less total imports.

Take out C and G, which is essentially rubbish; it does not produce anything and then focuses on what really matters, which is I and you will be shocked at what you are left with

I agree. Ideally GDP should be a total of what is produced, it is what the P stands for after all.

I think there is a way of doing it like that (calculating production ie: economic activity), but for obvious reasons the current method has become the norm.
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