URANIUM UPDATE
by Sol Palha
September 12, 2006
Opportunity often
comes in disguised in the form of misfortune, or temporary
defeat
Napoleon Hill
1883-1970, American Speaker, Motivational Writer, ''Think
and Grow Rich''
A very
interesting anomaly is that while uranium stocks have
corrected quite severely the same cannot be said for
bullion. Let's take a look at two different charts


The first chart is a
roughly a 20 year chart of Uranium and we can clearly see
that this market is in a super bullish phase. The current
prices are setting new records almost on a daily basis; the
second chart quite clearly illustrates this. As we speak
more and more nations are embracing nuclear energy and
current demand for uranium is 50% higher then the current
supply; imagine what could happen in the years to come when
all those new nuclear power plants come online.
The Table below
clearly illustrates the incredible run in prices and it
appears that there is no sign that prices are going and
traded as high as 54 in the month of September.
|
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
Jan |
$9.70 |
$10.15 |
$15.55 |
$21.10 |
$37.50 |
Feb |
$9.93 |
$10.15 |
$16.63 |
$21.75 |
$38.63 |
Mar |
$9.83 |
$10.10 |
$17.63 |
$22.55 |
$40.75 |
Apr |
$9.90 |
$10.88 |
$17.68 |
$25.00 |
$41.50 |
May |
$9.90 |
$10.95 |
$17.80 |
$29.00 |
$43.00 |
Jun |
$9.90 |
$10.90 |
$18.50 |
$29.00 |
$45.75 |
Jul |
$9.85 |
$11.05 |
$18.50 |
$29.50 |
$47.38 |
Aug |
$9.85 |
$11.30 |
$19.63 |
$30.10 |
$50.25 |
Sep |
$9.75 |
$12.23 |
$20.00 |
$31.63 |
|
Oct |
$9.90 |
$12.73 |
$20.23 |
$33.25 |
|
Nov |
$9.88 |
$13.75 |
$20.50 |
$34.75 |
|
Dec |
$10.20 |
$14.45 |
$20.60 |
$36.38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
http://www.cameco.com/investor_relations/ux_history/historical_ux.php
At the Tactical
Investor we refer to such anomalies (price of bullion keeps
rising but stocks in the sector are correcting) as Intra
market positive divergences; such developments are usually a
very bullish long term signal. This suggests that the
reason for the correction in Uranium stocks is just normal
profit taking. The masses are being led astray as usual and
will most likely sell exactly when they should be buying. We
view Uranium as must long term buy and everyone should have
some exposure to this sector. However remember as with any
other sector not all stocks are good to buy at the same
time. Some have already experienced huge run ups and are
ripe for even further consolidation. One must tread
carefully and remember the saying 'the road to hell is paved
with good intentions'.
Four
things come not back. The spoken word, the sped arrow, the
past life, ad the neglected opportunity.
Arabian
Proverb
Sayings of Arabian Origin
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