TMF/TLT and dock strike

[jonnyfrank]

How will the dock strike impact inflation, and how will that inflation impact TLT/TMF? It seems to me it will adversely impact TLT/TMF, or is it just white noise and the 96 level of TLT will hold? I am a nice profit and am considering selling and sitting on the sideline with TLT/TMF for a while. Thoughts?

[SOL]

How will the dock strike impact inflation, and how will that inflation impact TLT/TMF? It seems to me it will adversely impact TLT/TMF, or is it just white noise and the 96 level of TLT will hold? I am a nice profit and am considering selling and sitting on the sideline with TLT/TMF for a while. Thoughts?

One's guiding principle should be to always remember that no one goes broke by taking profits. And I've learned that when in doubt, it's best to sit out. These simple lessons took me years to master, but they've proven invaluable.

On the technical front, TLT appears poised for consolidation. The market seems heavily positioned, anticipating a significant rate cut. However, inflationary pressures are lurking, driven by the resource remobilisation war. China is signalling potential restrictions in the supply of Germanium and Silicon wafers, both critical for semiconductor production. With China controlling around two-thirds of global production, any disruption could adversely impact the semiconductor industry, affecting prices and inflation. Germanium is particularly vital for high-end semiconductors.

Moreover, Russia has hinted once again at reducing exports of essential materials like Titanium, Enriched Uranium, Palladium, and more, targeting "unfriendly" nations. This could further strain supply chains and add to global inflationary concerns.

TLT may fall to the 90-92 range in the short term, but in the longer term, it's likely to trend higher as inflationary forces play out and markets adjust.

[MarkD]

I sold TLT and TMF on the recent rally. Today I repurchased 25% of the position. Agree it is still a good LT investment but continue to take profits on rallies because LT rates typically at the initiation of rate cut cycles. Lower ST rates result in near term LT rate increases. So I am executing a non-TI trading method which allows me to milk profits.

I don't know when the 129-132 target may be hit. It might require some to the deflation to occur and that could be years. Not a bad investment for a BnH strategy based upon Sol's team strategy but I have been off schedule with several positions. Too early for some, but I am able to rebuy both TLT and stocks as they correct.

[Budge]

How will the dock strike impact inflation, and how will that inflation impact TLT/TMF? It seems to me it will adversely impact TLT/TMF, or is it just white noise and the 96 level of TLT will hold? I am a nice profit and am considering selling and sitting on the sideline with TLT/TMF for a while. Thoughts?

The current administration singing Kumbaya and showering us with unicorns, while pressing the pressure cooker even tighter, will try to delay everything till after the election. If Trump is alive and wins, they'll be landmines galore. As an additional strategy, because Western "leadership" has so bolluxed everything, they'll invoke the philosophy "when all else fails, take them to war" (and blame Russia and DJT dead or alive). As things get even more precarious foreign money historically flees to the dollar and the safest of safest (I jest) Treasury debt.

We are due a dish of inflation with a side of inflation followed by a dessert of inflation.

[jonnyfrank]

After grocery shopping this weekend, I have concluded that inflation is spinning upward aggressively. I never thought I would see the days when there were so many blatant lies and deceptions coming from the US government. America is dying if not dead. Very tragic indeed. TLT and TMF have been massive disappointments, but even shorting them is hard since the lies go both ways.

[jonnyfrank]

TLT looks exhausted.