Interim Market Update Aug 31, 2023

[SOL]

This is a significant moment, marking a first in nearly 24 months. For the first time, we've observed three bullish sentiment readings surpassing 50 in under three months. Furthermore, this week's bullish sentiment has set a new 12-month high, surpassing last week's readings. The current reading stands at 53.5, a new milestone. This is also the first time in roughly 24 months that we've had two consecutive weeks where bullish sentiment is above 50.
It might seem logical to assume that this indicates an imminent market crash, but mass psychology often defies straightforward assumptions. Remember, bullish readings remained below their historic average of 39 (now reduced to 38) for nearly 18 months. This suggests that before the market experiences a monumental crash, the crowd will likely need to reach a state of euphoria. The equation must and will always balance. However, the likelihood of a sharper and more significant pullback has increased, and this pullback will be mistaken for the catastrophic correction that will eventually hit the market. When this occurs, the crowd will prematurely assume that the bull market is ready to surge to unprecedented heights, setting the stage for severe retribution and pain. But that’s a discussion for another time.

For now, these back-to-back bullish sentiment readings of 53 and 53.5, while high, do not indicate euphoria. Instead, they suggest a sense of complacency. A healthy pullback between now and October should reset expectations, but an even better outcome would be range-bound action with sharp moves in both directions. For example, if the Dow surges 500 points one day and then sheds 600 points a few days later, the net loss is only 100 points. However, the masses will focus on the 600-point drop rather than the overall 100-point loss. Additionally, sharp range-bound action confuses the crowd, as neither bullish nor bearish positions are profitable during such times, increasing uncertainty. If this happens, the number of individuals in the neutral camp should surge. The most bullish development between now and October would be for neutral sentiment to rise above 50.

Uncertainty is far more potent and enduring than fear, and critically, it is a much stronger bullish signal than a rise in bearish sentiment. When uncertainty grips the market, it doesn't just cause a temporary wobble; it cultivates a prolonged state of indecision and hesitation, laying the groundwork for a sustained and robust market rally.

[Expert]

Has PALL started making its explosive upward move (which has been discussed in previous updates), with the recent surge?

[SOL]

This was covered in the latest update. The recent action is bullish. However, when the real move begins, you won't need to ask — it'll be obvious. When Palladium moves, it moves fast, and you'll notice it immediately!

[MarkD]

Next stop $125-140.

[Cinnamon]

It looks like demand is slowly increasing, but the issue is long term supply. It takes time to bring mothballed mines online.

https://matthey.com/documents/161599/50 ... ort-24.pdf
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 024-05-08/
https://www.miningmx.com/news/platinum/ ... ted-metal/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-la0edvcnYQ


I traded in and out of PALL and SBSW, but always reinvested the profits back into them. Now I am in the black on both. I'm starting to appreciate Sol's longer-term vision; getting in early and holding. The short-term ride can be rough, but the gains overall are quite good. I’ve applied this same strategy to TI's Gold and Silver picks with similar success.

[MarkD]

Just perused the links and vid. Nice info, illustrating supply constraints that are likely to accelerate, further increasing price.

I hope the FED surprises and PALL and others dump on the news. I will buy more.

[MarkD]

A couple of new challenges for supply chains

Looming US East Coast port strike

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/busi ... rkers.html

And apparently rare earths aren't the only critical material. This mine is now cut off from transport routes due to the Helene impacts in North Carolina.

https://www.wired.com/story/book-excerp ... e-silicon/

https://www.sibelco.com/en/150-years/spruce-pine

[Budge]

A couple of new challenges for supply chains

Looming US East Coast port strike

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/busi ... rkers.html

And apparently rare earths aren't the only critical material. This mine is now cut off from transport routes due to the Helene impacts in North Carolina.

https://www.wired.com/story/book-excerp ... e-silicon/

https://www.sibelco.com/en/150-years/spruce-pine

Not just the quartz, western NC contains huge lithium deposits.

[MarkD]

I thought lithium demand was collapsing!

[SOL]

Demand always seems to be collapsing for something—until suddenly, it’s not. Have you noticed the absurd, almost laughable stories the media rolls out to push prices lower, only for demand to reappear for things that were recently deemed untouchable? It’s like clockwork.

On a different note. Did any of you notice how the big players—Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and the like—missed the mark with their oil predictions? They said demand would skyrocket by 600,000 barrels a day, but instead, it supposedly dropped. Or did it?

In reality, it dropped in Western markets like the U.S. and U.K., but that's only part of the picture. Behind the scenes, through OPEC’s system*, where the West doesn’t have clear visibility, oil demand surged. What's happening is that the emerging world is buying oil outside the Western exchanges—think Venezuela, Iran, Russia, and other non-Western suppliers. Now the new media will start to scream of collapsing demand, but the real action is taking place off Western radars.

[MarkD]

The supply constraint issue is expanding. Baxter just had a major factory that produces IV fluids for hydration flooded in NC Helene storm. They anticipate a 40% reduction in supply. Avoid hospitalization if possible for the time being.

I wonder what other items were severely impacted?

[Budge]

Demand always seems to be collapsing for something—until suddenly, it’s not. Have you noticed the absurd, almost laughable stories the media rolls out to push prices lower, only for demand to reappear for things that were recently deemed untouchable? It’s like clockwork.

On a different note. Did any of you notice how the big players—Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and the like—missed the mark with their oil predictions? They said demand would skyrocket by 600,000 barrels a day, but instead, it supposedly dropped. Or did it?

In reality, it dropped in Western markets like the U.S. and U.K., but that's only part of the picture. Behind the scenes, through OPEC’s system*, where the West doesn’t have clear visibility, oil demand surged. What's happening is that the emerging world is buying oil outside the Western exchanges—think Venezuela, Iran, Russia, and other non-Western suppliers. Now the new media will start to scream of collapsing demand, but the real action is taking place off Western radars.

Short term manipulation goes on all the time. Even "Saint" Buffet is not above dirty tricks. Looking for a quick gain, he and PhiBro had silver moved from New York to London and had friendly media publish articles of shortages to push up prices.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/arms ... pulations/

[Expert]

PALL moved quite a bit today

[SOL]

PALL moved quite a bit today

Probably for this reason
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... ngNewsSerp

Imagine the impact if there were a real disruption in the palladium supply. Russia controls 40% of the supply, and South Africa is another Major player.