Interim update July 8, 2024

[SOL]

Three updates will be sent out this week. One may be sent as early as today, and the other two will follow as they are completed, with all updates sent before the end of the week. The first update will cover the significant opportunity Palladium is creating on multiple time frames. We will also update our short-term and long-term outlook sections in one of these updates. Our Bitcoin outlook came to fruition, and we hope those sitting on significant gains seized the opportunity to close their positions before the market pulled back sharply. There was ample time to act on this call, as we projected the decline weeks in advance.

TSLA performed well, allowing us to bank profits on 2/5th of our position while holding 1/5th. When markets rise, some wish they had held on longer, and when they fall, they regret not selling sooner. Hindsight is a fickle lover—momentarily satisfying but often painful. Hence, focus on the now, not the past or the future. Be glad when you sell that another investor has the opportunity to lock in some gains, for one day that person could be you. Whether they do so or not, that’s a different story.

One of the updates will focus exclusively on our portfolios. All portfolios will be updated, and this data will also be posted online.

We will also be increasing the frequency of shorter updates. We mentioned this nearly three months ago, and now we will start acting on it. You can expect shorter updates in addition to the regular ones. These shorter updates will generally focus on 1-3 topics, usually 2.

Bullish sentiment has pulled back into the low 40s, and until the masses become excessively optimistic, the market is unlikely to crash. However, remember that when it does crash, it will be spectacular, as it will need to drop significantly before all the excess greed and speculation are purged.

If a black swan event occurs before bullish sentiment surges to and past 55 and remains elevated for weeks, there is only one option based on mass psychology: run out and back the truck up.

[stefk]

Today is 15th july, a special day for all the world. It is Saint Donald, happy day for all Donalds, and especialy for the

great one.......

[Investor87]

A bullet was a fraction of an inch from giving us a black swan event.

[MarkD]

OTH bullish sentiment is surging ATM. Two colleagues have texted telling me how great this is for their portfolios.

Nobody recognizes things like a joint bill to cease Congress from trading on insider info. And why would Congress move on that bill now? Election season, possibly.

[bpcw]

Sentiment up again so we look like we may be in for a drop of 10% or so as Sol indicated.

I bought a VIX ETF a few days ago.

[MarkD]

My read is it's still a bit early to be buying VIX but time to watch closely.

[bpcw]

My read is it's still a bit early to be buying VIX but time to watch closely.

It was historically very low at under 14, I'm up at the moment, and can add more if it goes a lot lower.

Time will tell but I haven't put loads in anyway.

[MarkD]

What vehicle are your using? An ETN?

[bpcw]

What vehicle are your using? An ETN?

Sorry just seen this.

It's WisdomTree (VILX) S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures 2.25x Daily Lev

[MarkD]

Excellent. Thx!

Update - didn't get your message until the run began. Nice trade!

[bpcw]

Excellent. Thx!

Update - didn't get your message until the run began. Nice trade!

Sold it earlier, not expecting this correction to be much so made a quick 30%. Not an investment vehicle you want to stay in too long as it deteriorates with time even if the vix stays the same.

Will definitely put some money in it if Sol indicates a strong correction is brewing, will do it in 3 potential lots.

[SOL]

Nice trade, BPCW. While everything seems to scream that the markets are poised to crash and burn, key psychological indicators don't support this. Furthermore, sentiment readings have dipped rapidly from 55.7 to 41. Under such conditions, a strong correction would present a buying opportunity.

That said, a massive correction is inevitable. I prefer not to dwell on it until the signs are unmistakable. However, the cards are beginning to line up for the AI sector.

[Macca45]

Hi Sol what are your latest thoughts on Palladium?

[bpcw]

Hi Sol what are your latest thoughts on Palladium?

I suspect Sol is busy looking at this sell off which has been across the board and includes palladium, looks to me like short term panic and is a great opportunity to accumulate.

[bpcw]

Nice trade, BPCW. While everything seems to scream that the markets are poised to crash and burn, key psychological indicators don't support this. Furthermore, sentiment readings have dipped rapidly from 55.7 to 41. Under such conditions, a strong correction would present a buying opportunity.

That said, a massive correction is inevitable. I prefer not to dwell on it until the signs are unmistakable. However, the cards are beginning to line up for the AI sector.

Wish I had held, my hindsight trading system is going well at the moment, could have sold everything 2 weeks ago and shorted everything with all my portfolio!