TLT and TMF

[jonnyfrank]

"Bonds are dangerously close to triggering a positive divergence signal, notably on the monthly charts.
If this signal comes to fruition, brace yourself for a significant move akin to "bandits being chased by the
hounds of hell." The pattern has notably strengthened since the last update. Moreover, if this pattern
unfolds, it will serve as a dangerously clear precursor to similar movements in markets like Palladium,
Lithium, and others."

This was in your recent market update.

To clarify, this suggests a rapid move UPWARD in the prices of TLT and TMF, correct? I am clarifying because the word "dangerous" implies otherwise and generally speaking "hounds of hell" usually chase their prey downward back to hell, thus implying a downward move.

I'm am all about horror movies, but I want to make sure I am understanding the paragraph as I prefer movies that have some degree of positive redemption (like hounds of hell being destroyed by well meaning bandits, for example)....

[SOL]

"Bonds are dangerously close to triggering a positive divergence signal, notably on the monthly charts.
If this signal comes to fruition, brace yourself for a significant move akin to "bandits being chased by the
hounds of hell." The pattern has notably strengthened since the last update. Moreover, if this pattern
unfolds, it will serve as a dangerously clear precursor to similar movements in markets like Palladium,
Lithium, and others."

This was in your recent market update.

To clarify, this suggests a rapid move UPWARD in the prices of TLT and TMF, correct? I am clarifying because the word "dangerous" implies otherwise and generally speaking "hounds of hell" usually chase their prey downward back to hell, thus implying a downward move.

I'm am all about horror movies, but I want to make sure I am understanding the paragraph as I prefer movies that have some degree of positive redemption (like hounds of hell being destroyed by well meaning bandits, for example)....

The language/phrases were used to emphasize the possibility of a significant upward move in bonds; a move that's long overdue. As of now, bonds are sticking to the ideal scenario, which called for a rally to the 89-90 range, a pullback and then a stronger rebound. Let's see if bonds pull back at this level (89-90) or blast off, soaring all the way to 120.

[Budge]

"Bonds are dangerously close to triggering a positive divergence signal, notably on the monthly charts.
If this signal comes to fruition, brace yourself for a significant move akin to "bandits being chased by the
hounds of hell." The pattern has notably strengthened since the last update. Moreover, if this pattern
unfolds, it will serve as a dangerously clear precursor to similar movements in markets like Palladium,
Lithium, and others."

This was in your recent market update.

To clarify, this suggests a rapid move UPWARD in the prices of TLT and TMF, correct? I am clarifying because the word "dangerous" implies otherwise and generally speaking "hounds of hell" usually chase their prey downward back to hell, thus implying a downward move.

I'm am all about horror movies, but I want to make sure I am understanding the paragraph as I prefer movies that have some degree of positive redemption (like hounds of hell being destroyed by well meaning bandits, for example)....

My considered opinion is that anything even remotely associated with this God-awful government is destined for the shitter! Please oh please Putin drop a Kinzhal on DC.

[jonnyfrank]

We are governed by men and women with no honor.

[Budge]

We are governed by men and women with no honor.

I'd take it a step (leap) further. We are governed by men and women who are just plain evil.

[jonnyfrank]

Yes, evil indeed. We live in dark times. Money and power have become the holy grail. The captains of industry are indeed psychopaths, and that is what makes them so successful. What a world! As I age as a Catholic, I become more convinced that this is indeed my purgatory. The twist is I had and have kids to raise, lol. So far, my two boys are well on their way as men but my young daughter of 12 still has to navigate through all of the rot as a child.

[MarkD]

Monthly Relative strength plus MACD.

https://ibb.co/jZ0DcHf

Weekly, and looking to retrace. Nice series of higher highs/lows on MACD.

https://ibb.co/fGmhQrk

[deepthinker]

I loaded up on TLT when it was under 90. Everyone I know was negative on it. So far so good. Lets see if i make a profit or end up losing my shirt

[deepthinker]

Yes, evil indeed. We live in dark times. Money and power have become the holy grail. The captains of industry are indeed psychopaths, and that is what makes them so successful. What a world! As I age as a Catholic, I become more convinced that this is indeed my purgatory. The twist is I had and have kids to raise, lol. So far, my two boys are well on their way as men but my young daughter of 12 still has to navigate through all of the rot as a child.

Having kids in the West nowadays is hard. Being a good parent is not enough. We need to be good parents and also be watchdogs with 100 eyes. I am starting to seriously believe Sol was right when we was advocating that the open minded should make backup plans. But the billion dollar question is backup plans to where. For most of us its not easy to just pick up and go

[MarkD]

Looking to swap TLT for individual LT treasuries. YTM on 30 year is 4.5%, TLT is 3.8.

So my thinking is individual bonds would return appoximately 20-30% more than TLT.

Since the yield curve is inverted ST treasuries are yielding a higher rate ATM. I currently hold ST funds in BIL.

[MarkD]

LT, this cannot be good for TLT or the US dollar.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8vibCAFH_0

[jonnyfrank]

I own some of both and while the recent run up has been fun I am still skeptical of TLT going to 120. However, I continue to hold.

[MarkD]

I got this from a Substack author who I follow (don't subscribe) this morning.

https://ibb.co/MMH32Mr

[Budge]

I got this from a Substack author who I follow (don't subscribe) this morning.

https://ibb.co/MMH32Mr

Largest holder of US debt is....the US! This will work out just peachy. In second place is China with just under $1trillion, but they're dumping it - $50 billion first quarter. This year Treasury has to roll over $10 trillion.

Progressive destruction almost complete.