Interim Update June 21, 2023

[SOL]

Every time I'm almost done with Market Update, another thing pops up. Firstly, the report was delayed due to a second spike in bullish readings, with the latest reading standing at 49.00. Then, just as I was nearing completion, the Russell reached a crucial point in the 1900 range. This would have been splendid, but it occurred amid an increasing bullish sentiment. The range of 1900-1930 signifies the first inflection point, while the second one comes into play within the 2000 range.

Furthermore, the Anxiety index dropped by almost two notches. The gauge retreated from the Hysteria zone to the severe zone, indicating that the crowd is becoming less nervous. Additionally, there are articles promoting an optimistic outlook and suggesting the arrival of a new bull market.

Then we have this development, which has to be categorised as a significant development: The percentage of individuals who currently own stocks has surged to 61%, matching figures from 2008, and we all know what happened thereafter.

One has to remember that history never repeats itself. The outcome depends on how quickly the masses panic once the markets start to release some pressure. If they are slow to panic, the correction could gain momentum, but if they panic swiftly, it could lead to a sharp and rapid decline. At present, the evidence points towards the latter scenario.

We closely monitor psychological data, so many (stock and ETF, etc.) entry points need to be recalibrated due to these changes. It's fascinating how things remained calm for over a year regarding psychological data, and suddenly it starts pouring in. If I can review all the stocks today, I will send out a complete update; otherwise, it will be sent out in pieces. The gauge in the anxiety index moved yesterday.

Rough projections suggest that the next bullish sentiment reading could exceed 50, indicating a further increase in positive market sentiment. Overall, caution is warranted. It is not the time to aggressively follow the masses.

[MarkD]

I have been noting a change in sentiment was underway. Every indicator which I follow has been increasingly bullish.

[SOL]

I have been noting a change in sentiment was underway. Every indicator which I follow has been increasingly bullish.

We currently trying to find an outside agent/service that might be able to help us with conducting manual surveys. However, it is not easy to find individuals that work in an unbiased manner. You know how people tend to act when they sense an underlying intention behind a question - they often lean towards the perceived intent. Hence in most cases, the data gathered is corrupt and useless.

Therefore, for the time being, we are personally engaging with individuals and communicating via email. We have standard protocols in place for gathering sentiment data, but this is a new venture we are developing.

It is quite surprising to observe the rapid change in people's attitudes. Suddenly, despite the negative backdrop, they are displaying a rather positive outlook. This goes against the grain, the masses are behaving like contrarians, From a data perspective, this ongoing situation is incredibly interesting, especially as it is occurring at such a rapid clip.

[scremonini]

Hi Sol,
could you consider doing a survey to decide among Hang Seng and DAX coverage?
I feel that the Hang Seng presents much more upside and opportunities over the DAX which is trading at historical max levels. Apologies for not sending an email earlier when offered the opportunity.
Many thanks
Seb

[bpcw]

Palladium has fallen sharply again, the general opinion is that it is due to slowing demand from catalytic converters in the auto industry as more electric vehicles are being built instead, in light of this is it still worth accumulating at these prices. Are we looking at a purely supply/demand issue or is there sentiment involved?

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 023-06-23/

https://www.economies.com/commodities/p ... 2024-43013

[AstuteShift]

Palladium has fallen sharply again, the general opinion is that it is due to slowing demand from catalytic converters in the auto industry as more electric vehicles are being built instead, in light of this is it still worth accumulating at these prices. Are we looking at a purely supply/demand issue or is there sentiment involved?

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 023-06-23/

https://www.economies.com/commodities/p ... 2024-43013

Personally I would nibble below 108 bucks, 80 bucks would be a screaming buy tbh. As a trader I need to see some market structure of accumulation first

However I do see how SOL visualizes this asset being higher and also the old saying goes, better to be in the market rather to time it

[bpcw]

Palladium has fallen sharply again, the general opinion is that it is due to slowing demand from catalytic converters in the auto industry as more electric vehicles are being built instead, in light of this is it still worth accumulating at these prices. Are we looking at a purely supply/demand issue or is there sentiment involved?

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 023-06-23/

https://www.economies.com/commodities/p ... 2024-43013

Personally I would nibble below 108 bucks, 80 bucks would be a screaming buy tbh. As a trader I need to see some market structure of accumulation first

However I do see how SOL visualizes this asset being higher and also the old saying goes, better to be in the market rather to time it

Absolute free fall at the moment!

It would be a screaming buy at 50 and even more screaming buy at 10 but at some point one has to decide to invest. You could wait for a clear bottom with higher highs and lows but you might have missed the boat from there, same for any investment, and I think big tech companies have shown this, Nvidia being up 500% for example.

[chippermon]

Palladium has fallen sharply again, the general opinion is that it is due to slowing demand from catalytic converters in the auto industry as more electric vehicles are being built instead, in light of this is it still worth accumulating at these prices. Are we looking at a purely supply/demand issue or is there sentiment involved?

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 023-06-23/

https://www.economies.com/commodities/p ... 2024-43013

As far as sentiment goes, Although just off of extreme levels, I see Money Managers are very short and Producers are quite long so there could be some support in this area but price action has not shown me it is ready. I think we need to see Non Reportables shorter too.

[bpcw]

Palladium has fallen sharply again, the general opinion is that it is due to slowing demand from catalytic converters in the auto industry as more electric vehicles are being built instead, in light of this is it still worth accumulating at these prices. Are we looking at a purely supply/demand issue or is there sentiment involved?

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 023-06-23/

https://www.economies.com/commodities/p ... 2024-43013

As far as sentiment goes, Although just off of extreme levels, I see Money Managers are very short and Producers are quite long so there could be some support in this area but price action has not shown me it is ready. I think we need to see Non Reportables shorter too.

Thanks, there is a strong positive divergence on the weekly!

Be interesting to see if Sol can throw any light on his thinking for this being a buy from 1900, the entry price is now 1733 after average buying a 2nd lot at 1340.

[MarkD]

I have been reading a lot of different stuff and note that Palladium could be useful in battery tech. The selloff mirrors the move from ICE to EV.

[SOL]

Palladium has fallen sharply again, the general opinion is that it is due to slowing demand from catalytic converters in the auto industry as more electric vehicles are being built instead, in light of this is it still worth accumulating at these prices. Are we looking at a purely supply/demand issue or is there sentiment involved?

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 023-06-23/

https://www.economies.com/commodities/p ... 2024-43013

As far as sentiment goes, Although just off of extreme levels, I see Money Managers are very short and Producers are quite long so there could be some support in this area but price action has not shown me it is ready. I think we need to see Non Reportables shorter too.

Thanks, there is a strong positive divergence on the weekly!

Be interesting to see if Sol can throw any light on his thinking for this being a buy from 1900, the entry price is now 1733 after average buying a 2nd lot at 1340.

With the benefit of hindsight, we can all appear like geniuses. It is easy to say that we could have done something differently. Palladium dropped but instead it could have easily shot upwards. One of the factors that changed the outlook was not only the sanctions against Russia but also the sanctions against everything related to Russia. This led to an overreaction in these markets. However, reactions like these are never one-sided; there will be a very strong counter-reaction. Most individuals tend to focus on the side they are playing and forget that the reversal will always be strong.

This is one of the reasons why we deploy our money in lots. If we had invested all of it in Palladium or PALL at the initial entry price, we would find ourselves in a painful situation. As it stands, we still have one more lot, and if we continue to close out positions with gains, we might consider deploying a bit more in PALL. XHB traded within the suggested range, resulting in a quick yield of 14%, and we held it for less than 45 days.

Over the long run, we have always fared well with precious metals. As long as we don't overcommit, the odds are in our favour. Palladium will reverse and surpass its old highs. Demand continues to rise. I am adding to my positions as it drops, and if I have extra cash that I don't need for anything else, I might add a bit more and let it sit.

However, the key to being able to wait patiently is to never, ever overinvest in any asset, and, more importantly, to never invest money that we have set aside for other expenses.


Our initial foray into precious metals from 2003 to 2011 yielded gains of 1000% in Silver and came close to 1000% in Palladium. Some individuals held on and booked even higher gains in Palladium. How I wish every day that I had put everything I had into just these two plays. However, the upward journey was not without its challenges. Only in retrospect can one confidently say, "Yes, I wish I had invested everything I had." Yet, during the actual ride up, there were numerous moments where if you focussed on the short-term patterns, you would have thought of bailing out

[SOL]

Collaboration between Florida International University-linked Lion Battery Technologies of the US and the Battery Innovation Center of Newberry, Indiana, will include creating prototypes for commercialisation consideration next year.

Lion's target is to develop batteries with specific energies that are 20% to 100% higher than current technologies while matching or beating present cycle lives.

Established four years ago by the Toronto- and New York-listed Platinum Group Metals (PTM) and the Johannesburg-listed Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), Lion has been developing the next-generation battery technology using platinum and palladium since 2019.

Amplats has the Mogalakwena, Amandelbult and Mototolo platinum group metal (PGM) operations in South Africa’s Bushveld Complex, and the North American PTM, headed by CEO Frank Hallam, is the discoverer and operator of a bulk underground PGMs deposit in South Africa’s Waterberg, which is being developed with joint venture partners Impala Platinum, Mnombo Wethu Consultants, Japan Organisation for Metals and Energy Security, and Hanwa.

Successful commercialisation would mean the extension of PGMs beyond use in the exhaust systems of internal combustion engines and ensuring the zero-emission advantage of fuel cell electric vehicles, to also making an energy-enhancing and weight-reducing entry into battery electric vehicles.

Since inception, the Lion team has focused on the development of proprietary lithium sulphur technology and enhancing the performance of existing commercial lithium-ion or NMC chemistries. Lion has a sponsored research agreement with Florida International University, including exclusive rights to intellectual property developed and will lead the commercialisation efforts.

On top of that, the Battery Innovation Center will now collaborate with commercial enterprises, universities, government agencies, and industry leaders to focus on the rapid development, testing and commercialisation of safe, reliable and lightweight energy storage systems for commercial and defence customers.

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/ho ... 2023-06-21



The company was founded in 2019 by  Platinum Group Metals (TSX: PTM; NYSE: PLG) in partnership with Anglo American Platinum (US-OTC: ANGPY), one of the world’s leading producers of platinum group metals (PGMs). These two PGM miners are now leading the effort to commercialize next generation lithium-ion battery technologies utilizing PGMs.

Presently, about 84% of palladium and 35% of platinum demand comes from their use in catalytic converters in gasoline-powered vehicles. The shift away from internal combustion engine-powered cars to EVs powered by batteries utilizing PGMs “would provide a replacement source of demand for these metals,” says Frank Hallam, Platinum Group’s president and CEO.

“Palladium and platinum are remarkable metals that boost chemical reactions but don’t participate in them and offer the potential to enhance the performance of lithium-ion batteries significantly,” he says

https://www.mining.com/joint-venture/jv ... batteries/

[bpcw]

As far as sentiment goes, Although just off of extreme levels, I see Money Managers are very short and Producers are quite long so there could be some support in this area but price action has not shown me it is ready. I think we need to see Non Reportables shorter too.

Thanks, there is a strong positive divergence on the weekly!

Be interesting to see if Sol can throw any light on his thinking for this being a buy from 1900, the entry price is now 1733 after average buying a 2nd lot at 1340.

With the benefit of hindsight, we can all appear like geniuses. It is easy to say that we could have done something differently. Palladium dropped but instead it could have easily shot upwards. One of the factors that changed the outlook was not only the sanctions against Russia but also the sanctions against everything related to Russia. This led to an overreaction in these markets. However, reactions like these are never one-sided; there will be a very strong counter-reaction. Most individuals tend to focus on the side they are playing and forget that the reversal will always be strong.

This is one of the reasons why we deploy our money in lots. If we had invested all of it in Palladium or PALL at the initial entry price, we would find ourselves in a painful situation. As it stands, we still have one more lot, and if we continue to close out positions with gains, we might consider deploying a bit more in PALL. XHB traded within the suggested range, resulting in a quick yield of 14%, and we held it for less than 45 days.

Over the long run, we have always fared well with precious metals. As long as we don't overcommit, the odds are in our favour. Palladium will reverse and surpass its old highs. Demand continues to rise. I am adding to my positions as it drops, and if I have extra cash that I don't need for anything else, I might add a bit more and let it sit.

However, the key to being able to wait patiently is to never, ever overinvest in any asset, and, more importantly, to never invest money that we have set aside for other expenses.


Our initial foray into precious metals from 2003 to 2011 yielded gains of 1000% in Silver and came close to 1000% in Palladium. Some individuals held on and booked even higher gains in Palladium. How I wish every day that I had put everything I had into just these two plays. However, the upward journey was not without its challenges. Only in retrospect can one confidently say, "Yes, I wish I had invested everything I had." Yet, during the actual ride up, there were numerous moments where if you focussed on the short-term patterns, you would have thought of bailing out

Thanks Sol, the kind of answer I was looking for!

I wondered after seeing the price retreat further in the last couple of weeks and doing some research whether something new was happening in the market, but I guess the news has to fit the price movement hence the narrative on lack of supply from catalytic converters.

The point you make about hindsight is one I was trying to make and also whenever a financial instrument is going lower there are always those who will say they won't buy until it goes even lower but when it turns round and flies higher they regret never buying. I rushed my responses to this and forgot to mention why buying in lots is the way to go and we can see this with the big tech stocks. How many would have been saying Nvidia or Meta were done near their lows, and look at them now. I remember seeing opinions during the covid correction and the NDX was around 40%, people saying they won't buy unless it goes down 70% or whatever number they could pluck out of their heads.

None of this detracts from the opinions from the others who responded, I appreciate their perspective.

[AstuteShift]

Nothing wrong with nibbling or getting into lots currently, I just have my own rules when it comes to getting in and out

I personally think other metals besides gold will have a tough time currently with the dollar strength being where it is, however I’m positioned to take advantage of this.

So far this market has been interesting in terms of manipulation of index moves, big pumps at the end of days and destruction of call and put buyers with great precision. Usually I don’t pay attention to this but seeing the manipulation effecting the indexes to this degree has me to believe that the fund managers and institutions are also in this fomo driven rally

So the fact SOL remains a cautious bull is the correct take. If the so called wannabe big players are into the Fomo call buying of zero day to expiration options and the alike, then I could potentially see perhaps a day of huge significant risk to the downside of this market. Think of that quick dump of 2018 that happened but at a much faster pace and limit down each time.

Does this affect the long term trend? No since the real big players just enjoy causing chaos and misery to those who don’t get MP.

Short term and intermediate traders will have a rough time if they’re not nibble and constantly staring at the screen. Best to wait for the pure confirmation signal of MOAB and or the FOAB

[bpcw]

Nothing wrong with nibbling or getting into lots currently, I just have my own rules when it comes to getting in and out

I personally think other metals besides gold will have a tough time currently with the dollar strength being where it is, however I’m positioned to take advantage of this.

So far this market has been interesting in terms of manipulation of index moves, big pumps at the end of days and destruction of call and put buyers with great precision. Usually I don’t pay attention to this but seeing the manipulation effecting the indexes to this degree has me to believe that the fund managers and institutions are also in this fomo driven rally

So the fact SOL remains a cautious bull is the correct take. If the so called wannabe big players are into the Fomo call buying of zero day to expiration options and the alike, then I could potentially see perhaps a day of huge significant risk to the downside of this market. Think of that quick dump of 2018 that happened but at a much faster pace and limit down each time.

Does this affect the long term trend? No since the real big players just enjoy causing chaos and misery to those who don’t get MP.

Short term and intermediate traders will have a rough time if they’re not nibble and constantly staring at the screen. Best to wait for the pure confirmation signal of MOAB and or the FOAB

I appreciate your take on the markets and different strokes for different folks!