Important Interim Market Update April 11, 2023

[SOL]

Almost all the necessary conditions are in place for a MOAB to be triggered, with a score of 97 out of 100 on the scale. We're waiting on just one minor confirmation, but historically, once the trigger hits 95 or higher, it's never failed. While it's technically possible, the chances are exceedingly low.

Additionally, another rare signal, the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator, has recently flashed a buy signal. Developed by Dr. Martin Zweig, this market momentum indicator measures the percentage of advancing stocks compared to declining stocks over a 10-day period. It triggers when it falls below 40% and surges above 60% in 10 days or less. The last time it signalled a buy was in 2019.

Since 2000, the Zweig Thrust Indicator has only signalled twice and failed to deliver. This happened in late 2015 and early 2004, when the S&P 500 went on to hit a new low. However, while the index did drop in the short term, it still moved significantly higher one year after the signal was triggered.

In layman's terms, the Zweig thrust indicator helps us determine if the stock market is doing well or not. If the number of stocks going up compared to those going down shoots up quickly after a significant drop, it's a positive sign for the market.

Typically, when the Zweig signal is triggered, or a MOAB is close to being activated, the market tends to experience a pullback. However, our stance has shifted from cautious to bullish. We now view sharp pullbacks through a bullish lens. Sharp pullbacks should now be embraced with open arms so get ready to celebrate and break out the expensive bottle of booze.

As a result, we'll be raising our entry points on most of our existing pending orders and issuing several new plays.

[bpcw]

Ok Sol so you're expecting a sharp pull back still but we need to start buying into it more aggressively in lots?

Are you expecting to see new lows in some of the indices still?

[Yodean]

*****

Triggered post-March 31st.

[SOL]

Ok Sol so you're expecting a sharp pull back still but we need to start buying into it more aggressively in lots?

Are you expecting to see new lows in some of the indices still?

Although the expectation for a sharp pullback always lingers, it's important to note that the overall outlook has shifted. Previously, we exercised caution and were waiting for additional confirmations. However, my current perspective is bullish, and I view potential sharp pullbacks through a positive lens.

It's better to focus on the issue of sharp pullbacks rather than fixating on new lows. Together, these two indicators have a solid long-term track record. I intend to examine how the Dow utilities behaved when the Zweig Breadth signal failed in 2004 and 2015.

Individuals can now use sharp pullbacks to buy more assertively than in the past, but investing in increments is wise. Unless someone has a high-risk tolerance and can deal with potentially severe short-term drawdowns, it's best to deploy capital in lots.

[outof thebox]

I Hope more plays will be issued in the B&B portfolio I am going to use many of those plays or find similar ones to invest my 7 figure retirement portfolio. On this portfolio I am very conservative. Can you also provide updates on the Dow utilities from time to time. I never heard of the Zweig thingy. I am going to add that to my arsenal

[bpcw]

Ok Sol so you're expecting a sharp pull back still but we need to start buying into it more aggressively in lots?

Are you expecting to see new lows in some of the indices still?

Although the expectation for a sharp pullback always lingers, it's important to note that the overall outlook has shifted. Previously, we exercised caution and were waiting for additional confirmations. However, my current perspective is bullish, and I view potential sharp pullbacks through a positive lens.

It's better to focus on the issue of sharp pullbacks rather than fixating on new lows. Together, these two indicators have a solid long-term track record. I intend to examine how the Dow utilities behaved when the Zweig Breadth signal failed in 2004 and 2015.

Individuals can now use sharp pullbacks to buy more assertively than in the past, but investing in increments is wise. Unless someone has a high-risk tolerance and can deal with potentially severe short-term drawdowns, it's best to deploy capital in lots.

Thanks Sol, I get what you're saying, just wanted some clarity as it's a change of thinking. Also it means as other's have said that the October lows were probably the bottom.

[cristiano7subo]

Ok Sol so you're expecting a sharp pull back still but we need to start buying into it more aggressively in lots?

Are you expecting to see new lows in some of the indices still?

Although the expectation for a sharp pullback always lingers, it's important to note that the overall outlook has shifted. Previously, we exercised caution and were waiting for additional confirmations. However, my current perspective is bullish, and I view potential sharp pullbacks through a positive lens.

It's better to focus on the issue of sharp pullbacks rather than fixating on new lows. Together, these two indicators have a solid long-term track record. I intend to examine how the Dow utilities behaved when the Zweig Breadth signal failed in 2004 and 2015.

Individuals can now use sharp pullbacks to buy more assertively than in the past, but investing in increments is wise. Unless someone has a high-risk tolerance and can deal with potentially severe short-term drawdowns, it's best to deploy capital in lots.

Sol, will this be advisable for Low risk investors as well? currently I'm closing positions during rallies. Should we change our strategy now?
Also, I understand that there might not be another downward leg to take on the previous bottom. Is my understanding correct?

[SOL]

Thanks Sol, I get what you're saying, just wanted some clarity as it's a change of thinking. Also it means as other's have said that the October lows were probably the bottom.

Prior to the primary development of the MOAB signal hitting the 97% mark, we were exercising caution and waiting for stronger confirmations due to the volatile state of the markets in 2022. Our aim was to assess how the pattern would shift during a pullback. However, with the MOAB signal looming on the horizon, we can now adopt a more assertive approach as there are numerous confirmations supporting our bullish stance, as highlighted in the March 2023 update. Additionally, we can factor in the Zweigh Thrust signal to further reinforce our position.

Although it's possible for the markets to still dip to new lows, we can confidently view any sharp pullback through a bullish lens. In fact, if the markets do end up breaking their 2022 lows, it could present an even greater long-term opportunity.

The pattern for early 2024 suggests the potential for a more substantial correction in the first quarter of 2024 that could be stronger than the one experienced in 2022. However, it would be premature to fixate on that right now.

FYI, the exact date of the Zweigh Thrust signal was April 2.

[SOL]

Ok Sol so you're expecting a sharp pull back still but we need to start buying into it more aggressively in lots?

Are you expecting to see new lows in some of the indices still?

Although the expectation for a sharp pullback always lingers, it's important to note that the overall outlook has shifted. Previously, we exercised caution and were waiting for additional confirmations. However, my current perspective is bullish, and I view potential sharp pullbacks through a positive lens.

It's better to focus on the issue of sharp pullbacks rather than fixating on new lows. Together, these two indicators have a solid long-term track record. I intend to examine how the Dow utilities behaved when the Zweig Breadth signal failed in 2004 and 2015.

Individuals can now use sharp pullbacks to buy more assertively than in the past, but investing in increments is wise. Unless someone has a high-risk tolerance and can deal with potentially severe short-term drawdowns, it's best to deploy capital in lots.

Sol, will this be advisable for Low risk investors as well? currently I'm closing positions during rallies. Should we change our strategy now?
Also, I understand that there might not be another downward leg to take on the previous bottom. Is my understanding correct?

A MOAB signal is considered to be the most favourable indicator for low-risk investors. However, if you identify as a low-risk investor, then it's recommended that you only invest in low to medium-risk companies when the signal is triggered. While we are still anticipating some form of pullback, the severity is not the primary concern, as mentioned earlier. The crucial point now is that we have almost a 100% confirmation (97% is quite high) that any sharp pullback should be seized upon as a prime opportunity. The greater the deviation, the better the opportunity

Whether or not to continue taking profits is a decision that ultimately depends on your personal investment strategy. In our case, we have been taking profits on certain tech positions as we believe they may naturally lose some value even in the event of a strong market rally, as a lot of them have rallied strongly from their 2022 lows.
However, we are willing to take that risk to obtain better prices.

Simultaneously, we are now prepared to pay a bit more for other stocks than we would have last week. One potential solution is to take profits on some stocks that have witnessed significant gains from their 2022 lows and then utilise pullbacks to re-enter those positions. Additionally, we will be recommending other stocks to invest in, so keeping some money on hand may prove beneficial.

[Yodean]

*****

A bit more on the Zweig penetration, confirmed March 31st, as previously stated, shown above. Barely.

The following article goes into a bit more detail:

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_c ... st_signal/

*****

It's nothing compared to the JBS, though - Jesus stands with the bulls for the time being, and the Lord has been with the bulls since October.

Non-believers will be perished, yo ...

[SOL]

The NDX, which is the strongest index, is diverging. Instead of surging upwards, it has been pulling back. It topped on the 31st of March and has been fading in the face of good news. This is known as Intermarket negative divergence. While the Dow, which was lagging, has been rallying. If the NDX and the Nasdaq end the day in the red or significantly off their highs, it suggests that the Dow utilities are projecting the right pattern. Until they trigger a positive divergence or trade in the highly oversold ranges, the markets are more likely to pull back than rally to new highs.

In light of the changes mentioned earlier in this update, all pullbacks ranging from Mild to wild should be viewed through a bullish lens.

[kcun333]

I'm mostly in cash now as was recommended in previous MU updates as we expected a significant pullback by the end of this month. Looks like we now have changed direction and need to buy with any sharp pullback.

Are we going to get new entry prices soon in anticipation of this change of direction?

[SOL]

I'm mostly in cash now as was recommended in previous MU updates as we expected a significant pullback by the end of this month. Looks like we now have changed direction and need to buy with any sharp pullback.

Are we going to get new entry prices soon in anticipation of this change of direction?

We must remain vigilant and adaptable to evolving market conditions and trends. The market is dynamic, and we cannot stick to a fixed path, especially with a significant development underway. A MOAB signal cannot be taken lightly. We sold during rallies, generated cash, and closed many positions for a profit, albeit not as high as we wanted. The objective was to accumulate cash, and it has been achieved. Now, we need to prepare for deployment in the event of a MOAB signal. Even though the market may undergo a sharp pullback, these pullbacks must be (emphasis on must) viewed through a bullish lens. We are revising current entry points and introducing various new plays. The update is expected to be concluded by today.

[cristiano7subo]

I'm mostly in cash now as was recommended in previous MU updates as we expected a significant pullback by the end of this month. Looks like we now have changed direction and need to buy with any sharp pullback.

Are we going to get new entry prices soon in anticipation of this change of direction?

We must remain vigilant and adaptable to evolving market conditions and trends. The market is dynamic, and we cannot stick to a fixed path, especially with a significant development underway. A MOAB signal cannot be taken lightly. We sold during rallies, generated cash, and closed many positions for a profit, albeit not as high as we wanted. The objective was to accumulate cash, and it has been achieved. Now, we need to prepare for deployment in the event of a MOAB signal. Even though the market may undergo a sharp pullback, these pullbacks must be (emphasis on must) viewed through a bullish lens. We are revising current entry points and introducing various new plays. The update is expected to be concluded by today.

In other words, the final discount sale is about to open

[Budge]

I'm mostly in cash now as was recommended in previous MU updates as we expected a significant pullback by the end of this month. Looks like we now have changed direction and need to buy with any sharp pullback.

Are we going to get new entry prices soon in anticipation of this change of direction?

We must remain vigilant and adaptable to evolving market conditions and trends. The market is dynamic, and we cannot stick to a fixed path, especially with a significant development underway. A MOAB signal cannot be taken lightly. We sold during rallies, generated cash, and closed many positions for a profit, albeit not as high as we wanted. The objective was to accumulate cash, and it has been achieved. Now, we need to prepare for deployment in the event of a MOAB signal. Even though the market may undergo a sharp pullback, these pullbacks must be (emphasis on must) viewed through a bullish lens. We are revising current entry points and introducing various new plays. The update is expected to be concluded by today.

In other words, the final discount sale is about to open

With puppet masters pulling the strings of chaos to their benefit there are many known events primed to blow but maybe, just maybe, it'll be something inconsequential: