Interim update Feb 14, 2022

[SOL]

Given that the short-term trend is up and various indices have surpassed their Dec 2022 highs, the market is anticipated to rally until the mid to end of March, as previously discussed in the Feb 2 interim update (posted in the forum). Risk takers can take advantage of pullbacks on the Dow ranging from 300-600 points to open additional longs. However, it is advisable to start becoming cautious towards the middle of March.


The current short-term targets are as follows:

Dow: 34,700 to 35,100
Nasdaq 100: 12990 to 13200, with a possible overshoot to 13,500
Nasdaq Composite: 12,650 to 12,900
Russell 2000: 2000 to 2050

It is important to note that only individuals willing to take on risk, should consider opening new longs based on the above targets.

The next update is almost complete and is expected to be sent out by tomorrow.

[deep1nSand]

I feel the timings of the updates have been a little off lately i.e. they are sent after the rally is somewhat overbought. Last interim update (Feb 2) suggested risk-on, however that was the day TQQQ peaked for the last few weeks.
Most recent interim update of Feb 15 also was the day TQQQ made a lower high. I understand our investment timescales are not days, but given there are only a few days till Mid-March when we are supposed to be risk-off, these few days could matter a lot.

Am I missing something or misinterpreting the updates, please correct me.

[Yodean]

my2c:

-it's impossible to predict short-term market action with any precision; if some entity gets it right consistently, she has insider information, or is just extremely lucky;

-there is no Holy Grail, secret formula, sentiment analysis, or technical analytic tool that consistently works at market timing, especially in the shorter time frames, when it comes to trading the markets;

-at best, some combination of the above may make you slightly better at guessing, vs. others, for a period of time;

-in trading, everything works some of the time, and nothing works all of the time;

-with that said, for '23, buy the fookin' dip in good stocks!

-but risk management, asset allocation, and the boring OG stuff will always still reign supreme;

[Tobeornot]

I feel the timings of the updates have been a little off lately i.e. they are sent after the rally is somewhat overbought. Last interim update (Feb 2) suggested risk-on, however that was the day TQQQ peaked for the last few weeks.
Most recent interim update of Feb 15 also was the day TQQQ made a lower high. I understand our investment timescales are not days, but given there are only a few days till Mid-March when we are supposed to be risk-off, these few days could matter a lot.

Am I missing something or misinterpreting the updates, please correct me.

I don't know if i agree. Have you looked at the incredible accuracy of the short term forecasts since the end of last year. I made a lot of money jumping in and out of TQQQ, UDOW, etc just on using them. Even the predicitons on the Hang seng index were spot on and then bitcoin targets were hit recently. BTC is rough as there was a lot of volatility on this trade

On the interim updates I mix them with the short term forecasts in the MU. I am not sure what you mean by off, what I see is instructions to go long if the Dow gives up 300 plus points. There was time to act on this. As we get closer towards the end of Feb I will put smaller amounts at play until the markets let out a hefty dose of steam.

In the end it comes down to how one interprets things. I would be interested in your take. And Yodean is right nobody can get the short term trend right all the time


Posting from past updates

The Dow traded as high as 34,321 before pulling back, fulfilling the above projections. The markets are expected to correct/consolidate until the 1st week of February. As the Dow has pulled back quite a bit after hitting the suggested exit targets, a test of the 33,800 to 34K range is possible. After that, it is expected to correct roughly until Feb 9. The Dow could test the 32,240 to 33,500 range with a possible overshoot to 32K. Market update Jan 19, 2023

Bonds (TLT) (https://cutt.ly/2BIKcqC )
It's putting in a topping formation on the weekly charts and is having a hard time taking out its Dec 2022 high of 109.68. Failure to stay at or above 105 on a weekly basis is likely to result in a test of the 96 to 99 range. Market update Jan 30-, 2023

This came to pass, and after pulling back for several days, the Dow is getting ready to put in another intermediate bottom. A test of the 34,000 to 34,500 range is likely, with a possible overshoot to 34,900 before the next downward leg. Market Update January 7, 2023

Hang Seng Index
A test of 22,200 to 22,700 is likely, with a possible test of 23,250. After that, a re-test of the 2008 lows is likely. Market Update January 7, 2023


Copper
Projected targets are 4.05-4.15; potentially, it could trade as high as 4.50. Market Update January 7, 2023



All of the above came true. I made money on buying puts on TLT. Copper also was very good trade but I did not have the balls to go long futures but did well on ERO.

[outof thebox]

Yeah the new format of separating long term and short term views has been helpful I am now officially in the black, granted I took what some would call outrageous risk. Had to go through a long roundabout way to be able to trade Hang Seng futures, but managed to do that and made a killing on that trade

Shorted bonds when TLT could not break out past 109. Went long copper futures based on Sol's long term outlook. On these two trades I netted over 100K, so now TI is paid for several decades

Must admit though playing with futures ain't no joke, there were times I felt really nervous and I am sure my balls shrunk while I was playing three futures markets, but glad to say they returned back to normal

The above does not include the gains I have made playing other TI stocks and my independent trades via leveraged Index funds. TTD moved up nicely and the Dog AYX is almost to a break even point. Anyone has any insights into AYX. I feel like dumping it as soon as my positions turns profitable even though the charts look somewhat promising.

Yodean what you make of the Oracle dumping all his holdings in TSM.

[Yodean]

Yodean what you make of the Oracle dumping all his holdings in TSM.

That's priced in already, imo.

Also, my understanding is that Buffet no longer makes most of the decisions for Berkshire.

I'm still quite bullish on TSM in the long-term - still one of my largest single stock positions. The recent drawdown gave me an opportunity to close out a bunch of my sold covered calls on it, so I wasn't totally unhappy.

Besides the market's overreaction to the news of Bershire reducing its position in TSM in q4 last year, I also think the drop in TSM's share price is an overreaction to the perceived potential of a kinetic takeover of Taiwan by the CCP in the near future.

As you may know, although it may happen at some point, I still rank it as not very likely in the next few years. My base case remains the takeover of Taiwan by the CCP will occur in a non-kinetic fashion, and likely not for several years, at least.

Technically, TSM looks pretty good on the monthlies. There's a coincident gap near 78 on my weeklies and dailies that may get filled at some point, which is where I will add a bit more, if we get there.

Btw, congrats on your recent gains in futures trading. Although I am prolly considered not particulary risk-averse, I am not crazy enough to delve into futures.