CPI Numbers

[jonnyfrank]

Any insight into what to expect for CPI numbers on Tuesday AM?

[MarkD]

Consider they are changing the calculation, it will probably be a positive market response.

[SOL]

Any insight into what to expect for CPI numbers on Tuesday AM?

It's hard to say as everything is based on their whims, and as Mark stated, they are changing the formula which is another whim-based action. So it could be bad or good. The market is an extreme mode so it tends to react in a knee-jerk manner. One option for risk-takers would be to try a strangle play. Buy a call and put and hope for wild action so that one side of the trade soars possibly making up for the loss from the other end.

[bpcw]

No point speculating unless you are a day trader/gambler, and they tend to lose most of their money.

I thought we were trend players using MP on this forum!

[Budge]

Any insight into what to expect for CPI numbers on Tuesday AM?

It's hard to say as everything is based on their whims, and as Mark stated, they are changing the formula which is another whim-based action. So it could be bad or good. The market is an extreme mode so it tends to react in a knee-jerk manner. One option for risk-takers would be to try a strangle play. Buy a call and put and hope for wild action so that one side of the trade soars possibly making up for the loss from the other end.

"changing the formula which is another whim-based action."

Never "whim-based". Always deliberate.

[jonnyfrank]

No point speculating unless you are a day trader/gambler, and they tend to lose most of their money.

I thought we were trend players using MP on this forum!

We are trend players waiting patiently. I am curious that is why I asked. I know the calculations have changed, and it seems like further manipulation to me and am just curious what other people think.

[chippermon]

I don't know. When I look at some of the daily and hourly charts that are most affected by the number I learn towards a higher than expected number. DXY, 10YR yield, looking strong to the upside. SPX can go either way but favour risk off. So I guess I'm going towards a higher print. I have some positions expecting this but not too much on the line. I will be standing aside on the currency cross front until it shakes out. Gold looks like it wants to move a little lower.

Looking at the adjustment to the calculation, I think it is minuscule in the long run. When you use the calculation on previous data it only makes a 0.032% difference.

It will really depend on how the FED interprets this, or should I say manipulates this. Lots of chatter going on regarding a recession soft landing, blah, blah, blah, even no landing has been bantered about. They could easily decide to extend the easing of rates and that will put everyone's panties in a knot.

[jonnyfrank]

I don't know. When I look at some of the daily and hourly charts that are most affected by the number I learn towards a higher than expected number. DXY, 10YR yield, looking strong to the upside. SPX can go either way but favour risk off. So I guess I'm going towards a higher print. I have some positions expecting this but not too much on the line. I will be standing aside on the currency cross front until it shakes out. Gold looks like it wants to move a little lower.

Looking at the adjustment to the calculation, I think it is minuscule in the long run. When you use the calculation on previous data it only makes a 0.032% difference.

It will really depend on how the FED interprets this, or should I say manipulates this. Lots of chatter going on regarding a recession soft landing, blah, blah, blah, even no landing has been bantered about. They could easily decide to extend the easing of rates and that will put everyone's panties in a knot.

It is hard to tell, but I am leaning toward a lower or even print based on housing costs and supply chain issues slowly coming full circle. With gold, I agree that it has more downside but the B decline will probably not last long, and the C rise should be strong. I am trying to play something small for the CPI numbers and it will be small and rather insignificant, but I need to pacify my desire to do something with my risk portfolio. I will not be betting the farm just trying to see what I can yield from the news.

[chippermon]

I don't know. When I look at some of the daily and hourly charts that are most affected by the number I learn towards a higher than expected number. DXY, 10YR yield, looking strong to the upside. SPX can go either way but favour risk off. So I guess I'm going towards a higher print. I have some positions expecting this but not too much on the line. I will be standing aside on the currency cross front until it shakes out. Gold looks like it wants to move a little lower.

Looking at the adjustment to the calculation, I think it is minuscule in the long run. When you use the calculation on previous data it only makes a 0.032% difference.

It will really depend on how the FED interprets this, or should I say manipulates this. Lots of chatter going on regarding a recession soft landing, blah, blah, blah, even no landing has been bantered about. They could easily decide to extend the easing of rates and that will put everyone's panties in a knot.

It is hard to tell, but I am leaning toward a lower or even print based on housing costs and supply chain issues slowly coming full circle. With gold, I agree that it has more downside but the B decline will probably not last long, and the C rise should be strong. I am trying to play something small for the CPI numbers and it will be small and rather insignificant, but I need to pacify my desire to do something with my risk portfolio. I will not be betting the farm just trying to see what I can yield from the news.

Check out those 0 Day To Delivery option contracts on the E mini. Super volatile. Tons of OI. I have seen them drop to 1.50 and shoot up to 22.00 in just a few hours. you'll need to do your charts the night before though and be prepared for two way action at it's extreme. Trade off of tree or four time frames. Pretty cool.

[SOL]

Any insight into what to expect for CPI numbers on Tuesday AM?

It's hard to say as everything is based on their whims, and as Mark stated, they are changing the formula which is another whim-based action. So it could be bad or good. The market is an extreme mode so it tends to react in a knee-jerk manner. One option for risk-takers would be to try a strangle play. Buy a call and put and hope for wild action so that one side of the trade soars possibly making up for the loss from the other end.

"changing the formula which is another whim-based action."

Never "whim-based". Always deliberate.

That's why you are there, to correct me when I err on the soft side lol. But you are dead right

[SOL]

No point speculating unless you are a day trader/gambler, and they tend to lose most of their money.

I thought we were trend players using MP on this forum!

True but some might feel the need for speed. I am not into day trading as when you add the stress factor in, even if you win dollars it's questionable if you came out ahead. Now imagine if you lose

[bpcw]

No point speculating unless you are a day trader/gambler, and they tend to lose most of their money.

I thought we were trend players using MP on this forum!

True but some might feel the need for speed. I am not into day trading as when you add the stress factor in, even if you win dollars it's questionable if you came out ahead. Now imagine if you lose

Ok well for what it's worth, my best guesstimate is for a positive CPI, the markets to go up strongly with the masses thinking we're off again only to get slam dunked and a downward reversal!

Bearish sentiment dropped a lot last week so expecting a decent correction.

[jonnyfrank]

The numbers seemed to have come out rather neutral. Markets are up. For how long today we shall see.

[Yodean]

The numbers seemed to have come out rather neutral. Markets are up. For how long today we shall see.

Keep in mind besides "revising" how the CPI numbers are determined, they also "revise" the numbers from previous months - I think the CPI numbers for both December and November were revised up recently.

Day-trading off CPI numbers over the long-term is a losing proposition, I would wager.

[Budge]

The numbers seemed to have come out rather neutral. Markets are up. For how long today we shall see.

Keep in mind besides "revising" how the CPI numbers are determined, they also "revise" the numbers from previous months - I think the CPI numbers for both December and November were revised up recently.

Day-trading off CPI numbers over the long-term is a losing proposition, I would wager.

I suspect CPI numbers/revisions don't happen like this:

Many years ago, in a galaxy far away, I worked for a large multi-national corporation and spent my summer months reviewing/revising operating and strategic plans. Plans would go to Europe where they'd take an axe to the numbers - revise that! After "successful" revisions, they'd go to New York for more axe work and revising and Ta Da - we had plans to live with for another year.

Rather, it'll happen in a way I suggested our senior management should have worked: "Just get them to tell me what fucking numbers they want!"

They were never amused.