Interim Update Feb 2. 2023

[SOL]

Another correction is still expected, but if one or more indices take out their Dec 2022 highs, the correction could be delayed until March. Market Update Jan 19 & 30, 2023

The stock market has flashed several positive divergences, with key indices such as the NYSE, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closing above their December 2022 highs. Hence the above outlook is now in play

A gain of 600 points or more in three days or a weekly close at or above 12,000 will be the first signal that the Nasdaq is ready to take the lead. Market Update Oct 31, 2022

Based on today’s market action, it could achieve this feat this week. If this comes to pass then traders/risk takers can use sharp mini-pullbacks to play in the direction of the trend roughly up to March. But if you're not comfortable with uncertainty, it's probably best to sit this one out. After all, the stock market is a two-way street, and only those who are willing to take chances can reap the rewards.

Suggested investment vehicles for risk-takers:
MVV, TNA, TQQQ, UWM

[MarkD]

I had alerts set and they have triggered so the plan you proposed was my strategy to scalp a bit during this run up into the Spring.

JPow clearly indicated he intends to keep raising rates. Nobody cares atm. Once reality hits, oops...likely.

And here's an update on the dollar via UUP.

https://ibb.co/gjnz02B

[Yodean]

JPow clearly indicated he intends to keep raising rates. Nobody cares atm. Once reality hits, oops...likely.

And here's an update on the dollar via UUP.

https://ibb.co/gjnz02B

Nice chart.

One thing to keep in mind re/ JP/Fed raising rates: because of the debt ceiling, the TGA has been drawing down its balance, which acts to increase USD liquidity - so while the Fed continues QT, this drawing down of the TGA balance will act to counteract the QT, to some extent.

Once the debt ceiling is raised, presumably in the summer, this effect will disappear and the full effects of QT will be felt to a larger extent, arguably.

Another way of looking at this:

[jonnyfrank]

Another correction is still expected, but if one or more indices take out their Dec 2022 highs, the correction could be delayed until March. Market Update Jan 19 & 30, 2023

The stock market has flashed several positive divergences, with key indices such as the NYSE, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closing above their December 2022 highs. Hence the above outlook is now in play

A gain of 600 points or more in three days or a weekly close at or above 12,000 will be the first signal that the Nasdaq is ready to take the lead. Market Update Oct 31, 2022

Based on today’s market action, it could achieve this feat this week. If this comes to pass then traders/risk takers can use sharp mini-pullbacks to play in the direction of the trend roughly up to March. But if you're not comfortable with uncertainty, it's probably best to sit this one out. After all, the stock market is a two-way street, and only those who are willing to take chances can reap the rewards.

Suggested investment vehicles for risk-takers:
MVV, TNA, TQQQ, UWM

Sol,

Thanks for this update.

What are your thoughts on the FANG stocks? I played FNGU last week and it was a hit. I was looking for an alternative to TQQQ, discovered it, and made some money on it. It is more volatile, but with META earnings/buyback it did well and was unfazed by GOOGL and AAPL lackluster reports. I held some over the weekend after taking some profits. What are your thoughts on FNGU and buying and holding for the next few weeks? I just want to make sure I am reading the trend correctly. I do have a concern that the META high might not hold since earnings were not great and the stock soared more on buyback. Thoughts? If there is any chart analysis you can share I would appreciate your insight.

[Yodean]

*****

Aligns pretty well with the JBS triggered this past October.

Do what Jesus sez ...

[jonnyfrank]

*****

Aligns pretty well with the JBS triggered this past October.

Do what Jesus sez ...

I didn't realize Jesus was so adept at powerpoint......

[Yodean]

I didn't realize Jesus was so adept at powerpoint......

All is possible through the Father who resides in Metaverse Heaven.

Dude's a big Alien, can do a lot of sh*t ...

[Cinnamon]

I am quite content at the moment. The markets have rallied strongly in the past 12 weeks and I am sitting on some lovely profits

[Yodean]

I am quite content at the moment. The markets have rallied strongly in the past 12 weeks and I am sitting on some lovely profits

Congrats. The JBS is no joke. Many believe, but few understand Jesus.

[Triplethought]

I am quite content at the moment. The markets have rallied strongly in the past 12 weeks and I am sitting on some lovely profits

Most of us are sitting on somewhat reduced losses. You're lucky\

[deepthinker]

I am quite content at the moment. The markets have rallied strongly in the past 12 weeks and I am sitting on some lovely profits

Congrats. The JBS is no joke. Many believe, but few understand Jesus.

I don't know what the signal is but it appears to be working. I have my own indicators which also turned bullish around September and I combined that with Sol's outlook. I have reduced my loss by almost 60% and I expect to be in the black this year.

[Yodean]

I don't know what the signal is but it appears to be working. I have my own indicators which also turned bullish around September and I combined that with Sol's outlook. I have reduced my loss by almost 60% and I expect to be in the black this year.

Congrats on your results thus far.

The JBS was triggered in October based on three factors:

-33.3% (YoungAnakin publicly bet bearishly vs. Ninjedi re/ Q4);
-33.3% (Centdude for the first time publicly declared he was "shorting" the markets with puts);

-the above two events occurred within days of each other; if you're bored, can go through those posts around that time, quite amusing;

-33.3% (seasonals, COT data, reverse repo. numbers, POTUS cycle, etc.);
-0.1% (ninjitsu)

Ultimately, none can stand against the Jesus.

+31% in January alone for my portfolio.

Thank you Jesus!

Now, waiting for the JSS (Jesus Sell Signal) ...

[Eric]

+31% in January alone for my portfolio.

Thank you Jesus!

Now, waiting for the JSS (Jesus Sell Signal) ...

Did you crack that elusive 8th didget yet?

(In cookie monster voice) Oooppptttiiioonnss! Nom nom nom nom nom!

[Yodean]

Did you crack that elusive 8th didget yet?

Nope, quite far from that atm - last year crushed me like little bug. Prolly will take years before I get there, if I get there at all. But all good - my lifestyle hasn't changed in 15+ years, and this year's looking good thus far.

Learned a lot in '22 about investing/trading - prolly more last year than in any other single year in which I have been trading.

It's funny - after a forensic audit of my trades, I realized most of my poor trades were made in '21, even though that was one of my better years in terms of returns.

My single biggest mistake in '22 was throwing risk management and asset allocation considerations out the window in favour of indicators. Also not position-sizing appropriately and not using stops judiciously both to cut losses as well as when taking profits - didn't do enough of that in '21 - '22. Used to be pretty good at that "safe" stuff prior to '20.

But I did learn how to Wheel options and accumulated a lot of experience doing that, so I'm hopeful the lessons learned in '22 will pay off for the next few decades, assuming I'm around and not jabbed.

[Eric]

I was trying to upload this on my previous post last night but imgbb was down.


I think I suffered much the same problems you did. I'm +21% trailing 1-month, but I'm still -27% from my ATH on March 29th 2022.

I've learned things, adjusted, read the axioms...