I heard Princeton professor Alan Blinder (and former FED official) on PBS say if you only look at the 5 months thru Nov of 2022 inflation is in the 2.5% annualized range but he's not quite ready to declare inflation has been tamed. I couldn't believe it so I went and looked at CPI-U and I included December (which was negative .1%) and we're now running at 1.8% annualized inflation when I cross multiply. He did the math right. Blinder said his friends at the FED won't admit it for some time yet. So maybe inflation is under control or maybe lower fuel prices and supply chain easing are causing a blip. But oops the recession is just beginning.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation- ... 1672914903
Did anyone see Professor Blinder declare inflation is over?
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Triplethought
- Black Belt
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- Joined: Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:45 am
Did anyone see Professor Blinder declare inflation is over?
Current atmospheric levels of CO2 (400ppm) are much lower than 500 million years ago (3000-9000ppm).
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Yodean
- Jeidi
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- Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:02 pm
Re: Did anyone see Professor Blinder declare inflation is over?
Recession narrative is overblown, mainstream. I think the USA is stumbling _out_ of a weak recession (negative GDP in q1/2 last year, and recently adjusted job numbers down for q2 '22 by over a million). q3 last year had positive gdp, and i suspect q4 in '22 will be positive as well.Triplethought wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:18 pm I heard Princeton professor Alan Blinder (and former FED official) on PBS say if you only look at the 5 months thru Nov of 2022 inflation is in the 2.5% annualized range but he's not quite ready to declare inflation has been tamed. I couldn't believe it so I went and looked at CPI-U and I included December (which was negative .1%) and we're now running at 1.8% annualized inflation when I cross multiply. He did the math right. Blinder said his friends at the FED won't admit it for some time yet. So maybe inflation is under control or maybe lower fuel prices and supply chain easing are causing a blip. But oops the recession is just beginning.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation- ... 1672914903
PMIs didn't go down as much as expected. Yes, official inflation is rolling over.
Dr. Copper usually leads the economy, and it's recently broken out of a several month consolidation range to the upside in dramatic, coiled spring/snake fashion.
King USD is consolidating ... this will benefit equities.
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria. The Neonatal Calf undergoes an agonizing birthing, while the Bear falls into hibernation.