Dec 14 and 15 plunge. Wow. Almost like I predicted it

[Triplethought]

December 14 and 15th plunge. Who could've seen that coming? Oh yah Me. Me from 2 months away. I named the specific 2 days If this keeps up all day or even for several more days I'm going to be rubbing Yodean's face in it.

of course if it rebounds before Dec 31st he won't let me hear the end of it.

[jonnyfrank]

You know, posting this on December 13 would have earned you a badge of courage......

[deep1nSand]

There's still time for a prediction for Dec 16

[jonnyfrank]

Ok. I will take the bait. I see a big Friday rally going into the weekend. Based on the current volatility, I will take the odds. It is not exactly scientific, so Fauci would be proud!

[jonnyfrank]

I will also say that a lot has happened lately with the markets beginning at 11:55am. It has been interesting to watch. Let's see what happens today around lunch....

[Triplethought]

You know, posting this on December 13 would have earned you a badge of courage......

I started discussing it in November and referenced it in these forums specifically November 30th when I was looking wrong.
viewtopic.php?p=14035#p14035


Anyway a broken clock is right every once in a while and I won't consider it valid unless Dec 31st S&P number is lower than it was on Oct 1st. That's the bet I have with Yodean. Funny that I want to win that non monetary bet even though it will probably cost my portfolio thousands. illogical.

[Yodean]

Anyway a broken clock is right every once in a while and I won't consider it valid unless Dec 31st S&P number is lower than it was on Oct 1st. That's the bet I have with Yodean. Funny that I want to win that non monetary bet even though it will probably cost my portfolio thousands. illogical.

Based on my history on the TIT boards, I'm a pretty good contrarian indicator near market tops.

You, on the other hand, are an AMAZING contrarian indicator near market bottoms.

I'm a pretty awesome investor-trader near market bottoms ... but all varieties of terrible near market tops. Gotta work on the latter the next time markets top - have digested the big lessons this time around, methinks.

To be successful in the markets, you have to have the courage to buy near bottoms, and also have the wisdom to sell near tops.

I'm good at the former, need to work on the latter.

Stocks to Mars!

Before Elon gets there, by the way ...

[Triplethought]

Ok. I will take the bait. I see a big Friday rally going into the weekend. Based on the current volatility, I will take the odds. It is not exactly scientific, so Fauci would be proud!

Friday s&p down 1.11% It's really really hard to predict the future

[Triplethought]

Anyway a broken clock is right every once in a while and I won't consider it valid unless Dec 31st S&P number is lower than it was on Oct 1st. That's the bet I have with Yodean. Funny that I want to win that non monetary bet even though it will probably cost my portfolio thousands. illogical.

Based on my history on the TIT boards, I'm a pretty good contrarian indicator near market tops.

You, on the other hand, are an AMAZING contrarian indicator near market bottoms.

I'm a pretty awesome investor-trader near market bottoms ... but all varieties of terrible near market tops. Gotta work on the latter the next time markets top - have digested the big lessons this time around, methinks.

To be successful in the markets, you have to have the courage to buy near bottoms, and also have the wisdom to sell near tops.

I'm good at the former, need to work on the latter.

Stocks to Mars!

Before Elon gets there, by the way ...

Well so far you've lucked out a bit by staying in so long. At this point you might as well ride the santa claus rally til the end of the year. But me guesses if you don't start thinking of getting into cash soon you'll miss selling the mini top. I realize how hard that is to do when it means taking losses. A this point I've decided to ride the rest of my losses through the 2023 downturn and just wait for the tech stocks to come back. That could be and probably will be years.

[Yodean]

But me guesses if you don't start thinking of getting into cash soon you'll miss selling the mini top. I realize how hard that is to do when it means taking losses. A this point I've decided to ride the rest of my losses through the 2023 downturn and just wait for the tech stocks to come back. That could be and probably will be years.

Oh, I'm accumulating more good assets. Using a bit of margin, generating income by Spinning The Wheel and occasionally taking profits on certain swing-trades I entered fairly recently, etc.

I'm not sure there will be a real Satan Klaus rally this year - markets often tend to drift up a bit on low volume as we head into the holidays this time of the year.

But I'm bullish wrt January through April atm.

A tremendous Mass Sentiment FOAB was triggered last Friday:

Fellow sub. Centeron publicly announced two non-sanctioned TIT trades - he started shorting the spy using puts! This has never happened before on this forum, to my best knowledge.

And you became confidently, publicly bearish early October (taking that bet with me), naturally near the mid-October lows.

When both Centeron and you are on the same side of the trade, I'm ecstatic to take the other side, every single time, and twice on Sundays.

This is a tremendous personal FOAB.

[Yodean]

Well so far you've lucked out a bit by staying in so long. But me guesses if you don't start t hinking of getting into cash soon you'll miss selling the mini top.

[Yodean]

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/ ... net-search

*****

Magazine covers are often good contrarian indicators. The above is the Feb. 11th _Economist_ cover (showing Google getting smashed), with link to associated Feb. 9th article.

At the time, MSFT was trading around 275, Google around 95.

Let's see what happens ... Skynet will likely rule all, for a time.

[Yodean]

https://www.quiverquant.com/fearandgreed/

*****

The above is a pretty good site for gauging sentiment. You can roughly correlate some equity market bottoms with the sentiment bottoms.

Also, you can go the home page from that link and enter a CNBC mainstream financial pundit who tends to be wrong and check out their trades, and do the opposite, or at least not partake in what they are doing.

[Yodean]

https://youtu.be/I-s5DmP7ltA?t=3

*****

I've been posting some Tom Lee stuff recently, and the above is interesting - only 2 minutes and change.

Tom Lee is generally viewed as a perma-bull, and the above clip was posted yesterday. His tenor was mildly worried/bearish in this particular clip.

There's an old saying that when a perma-bull turns bearish, a significant bottom of some sort is likely in, or close.

Stocks to the moon!

Scared money make no money, yo ...

[Yodean]

*****

Hmmm, may be time to trim some tech ...