Market Update Oct.31, 2022

[scott]

"Views are expressed in an off-the-cuff manner, and in many instances, they might be posted just before the update is sent. If there is something that you don't understand, it's not a do-or-die issue. Move on to
the relevant sections, such as long-term or short-term views."

I might call "off-the-cuff", stream of consciousness; akin to/like James Joyce. If understood could be deemed genius. If not, put it down, and move on.

[Yodean]

[SOL]

I wonder what source they use to obtain that data. It has to be extrapolated to some degree. Regardless it is an interesting development. In the past extreme signals like this were followed with one last selling climax. Lets see if it repeats itself

How much time do you allocate to gathering all this data per day? Looks like you go sift through a decent chunk of of data every day

[Yodean]

How much time do you allocate to gathering all this data per day? Looks like you go sift through a decent chunk of of data every day

It's mostly a labour of love ... I find it enjoyable, generally. More fun than practicing mainstream Western medicine, at least for now.

I have a bit of a rough process where I scan through some accounts on Twitter on a daily basis, and try to consider some of the narratives and ideas brought up. Once a week or so, I try to go through some of the articles on kitco.news.

If there's a particularly interesting idea or narrative, I'll try to do a bit more work on it, whether it's looking into it more thoroughly, or looking at a few charts, etc.

So prolly a few hours a day on average, I would guess? Sometimes more, sometimes less.

I have a Twitter account that I use mostly to look at others' Tweets; I try to keep the # of accounts I follow to a minimum.

For those interested, currently there are 11 accounts I follow, under my account Ninjedi:

https://twitter.com/NarcissusNinja

[SOL]

@yodean, along those lines, this story is quite interesting. It looks we are getting closer to that inflection point

Rich young Americans have lost confidence in the stock market — and are betting on these 3 assets instead for long-term tailwind

The stock market has long been the go-to choice for people looking to invest their money. But that could be about to change as a younger generation enters the scene.

According to a survey from Bank of America, individuals aged 21 to 42 with at least $3 million in assets only have 25% of their portfolio invested in stocks. For wealthy investors over age 43, the allocation to equities is much higher at 55%.

The recent bear market may have something to do with these millennials’ decisions.

“We’ve had a very strong run in the stock market over the last decade and are now living through volatile times. That’s on the front of people's minds,” says Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank, in an interview.

Despite the stock market’s recent bounce, the benchmark S&P 500 Index is still down nearly around 7% over the last year.

Busconi adds that the younger generation of investors increasingly believes that “a traditional portfolio of stock and bonds is not going to deliver above-average returns over time.”

So which assets do rich millennials favor
https://www.yahoo.com/now/rich-young-am ... 00070.html

[Budge]

The recent bear market may have something to do with these millennials’ decisions.

“We’ve had a very strong run in the stock market over the last decade and are now living through volatile times. That’s on the front of people's minds,” says Jeff Busconi, chief operating officer at Bank of America Private Bank, in an interview.

Good to see. A classic moron alert. Busconi talking his own book and a parade of witless millennials. When the markets turn, they'll all rush back (if they have funds left after being scalped in the crypto and private deals).

[Yodean]

[Yodean]

[Yodean]

[Yodean]

https://twitter.com/SethCL/status/1620779997802926081

*****

Shorts getting crushed, like bug.

[SOL]

*****

Shorts getting crushed, like bug.

Lots of people coming late to the party, so this is most likely a mini FOMO stage. When it was time to buy they were selling now its time to be a tad bit cautious they are buying aggressively. Wide range bound action is the most likely outcome for this year

[scott]

Lots of people coming late to the party, so this is most likely a mini FOMO stage. When it was time to buy they were selling now its time to be a tad bit cautious they are buying aggressively. Wide range bound action is the most likely outcome for this year

Articles like this fueling the FOMO.

The stock market just hit a rare trifecta of bullish indicators that suggests big upside this year

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ear-2023-2

[Yodean]

*****

This is the Jan. 9th cover of Barron's.

I try to keep an eye on their covers when I can - they are gr8 contrarian indicators, as a general rule.

There was a gr8 one last October, coinciding more or less with an interim USD top, that was bullish on the USD.

It was a small part of the JBS that was triggered around that time.

[jonnyfrank]

So the 11,700 Nasdaq level has been breached. Are we still looking at a correction or is the thinking we may be free and clear?

[Yodean]

So the 11,700 Nasdaq level has been breached. Are we still looking at a correction or is the thinking we may be free and clear?

I'm 99% sure that I'll be right 50% of the time.

COT data, the limited amount of CTA (computerized trading algorithm) data I am privy to on a time-delayed basis, both suggest that "risk on" is back, at least for a bit, as we climb up a Wall of Worry.

There are always Dark Swans, but I suspect a lot of investors/institutions are going to be forced to chase this rally up, after some consolidation amidst high volatility.

It's always FOMO or FOGU (Fear Of Going Under).

The Jesus Buy Signal is holding up well - you should always listen to Jesus.

The trend is up.