The small pivot the market was looking for?

[SOL]

Fed's Daly says it's time to start talking about slowing rate hikes

With rates near the neutral level, where economic activity is neither constrained nor stimulated, Daly said the Fed is moving to a second phase in policy tightening that should be "thoughtful" and "incredibly data-dependent."

"We have to make sure we are doing everything in our power not to overtighten, and we can't pull up too fast, and say we are done," Daly said. Headwinds including the war in Ukraine, an economic slowdown in Europe and ongoing policy tightening by central banks around the world could impact the U.S. economy, she added, and ultimately how high U.S. rates need to go.

With inflation by the Fed's preferred measure running at more than three times the 2% goal and the labour market still strong, Daly said "it's really challenging to step down right now ... We are not there yet."

But, she added, "the time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-dal ... 09530.html


That's the small pivot we mentioned in the last few interim updates and in the last MU, and it appears it's here. On a separate note, you can see how risky it can be to short a market; when it turns around, it rips quite fast.

The Dow and several other indices have closed above key points daily and weekly, so the short-term outlook has improved.


Only individuals in the "high-risk" category or experienced traders should consider playing the short-term trend. Additionally, please don't use margin if you don't have several years of trading experience under your belt. Using margin generally is the fastest way to get to the Dog house.

The only exception to the rule is if the Markets have generated a MOAB or a FOAB.


I hope everyone has a great weekend

[MarkD]

I noticed that same information re: FED pivot and planned to post. Thanks for being prescient and providing your input in advance.

[deep1nSand]

S&P failed to close above 3867 again today (the key level mentioned in the last update), after a good two day rally and is falling after-hours in response to the not-so-stellar earnings from both MSFT and GOOGL.
Will the logical conclusion from this be that the short term positive trend is not confirmed yet and we probably need to hear the confirmation of the small pivot from the fed next week?

[Investor87]

S&P failed to close above 3867 again today (the key level mentioned in the last update), after a good two day rally and is falling after-hours in response to the not-so-stellar earnings from both MSFT and GOOGL.
Will the logical conclusion from this be that the short term positive trend is not confirmed yet and we probably need to hear the confirmation of the small pivot from the fed next week?

From the last MU update... "Dow: 30,459, SP500: 3837, Nasdaq: 11244". Another place (not sure where) Russel2000: 1775 was mentioned. Three out of four and the Nasdaq closed 45 points short from its goal. I guess we will see what we close the week out at.

[Triplethought]

S&P failed to close above 3867 again today (the key level mentioned in the last update), after a good two day rally and is falling after-hours in response to the not-so-stellar earnings from both MSFT and GOOGL.
Will the logical conclusion from this be that the short term positive trend is not confirmed yet and we probably need to hear the confirmation of the small pivot from the fed next week?

I'm going to use the opening dip to buy into S&P index this morning

[chippermon]

S&P failed to close above 3867 again today (the key level mentioned in the last update), after a good two day rally and is falling after-hours in response to the not-so-stellar earnings from both MSFT and GOOGL.
Will the logical conclusion from this be that the short term positive trend is not confirmed yet and we probably need to hear the confirmation of the small pivot from the fed next week?

I'm going to use the opening dip to buy into S&P index this morning

I will join you in that. Maybe some more TQQQ calls. As well. Thinking of selling some DXY with a 109 ish target.

[Yodean]

I'm going to use the opening dip to buy into S&P index this morning

in addition, may be a good idea to start practicing writing some 500+ word posts on a variety of topics ...

[Triplethought]

I'm going to use the opening dip to buy into S&P index this morning

in addition, may be a good idea to start practicing writing some 500+ word posts on a variety of topics ...

I think if I win the bet your topic will be something like "why personal experience can't be used to draw scientific conclusions". Or "What is anecdotal evidence and why not to trust it".

But I admit that so far, you're winning our bet with S&P500 up 7.5% since october 1st. That is a solid rate of return but 2 more months to go. Even though I expect the elections to boost returns I will still be surprised if the 4th quarter is up.

[Yodean]

But I admit that so far, you're winning our bet with S&P500 up 7.5% since october 1st. That is a solid rate of return but 2 more months to go. Even though I expect the elections to boost returns I will still be surprised if the 4th quarter is up.

No doubt, it's going to be close, I would think.

[SOL]

With rates now in restrictive territory, I believe it is time to shift focus from how rapidly to raise rates, or the pace, to how high -- in other words, to determining what is sufficiently restrictive,” Collins said Friday in remarks prepared for a virtual event organized by the Brookings Institution.

Collins spoke days after the Fed lifted interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth straight time. The move brought the benchmark rate to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the two-day policy meeting that officials could soon move to smaller interest rate increases while ultimately taking rates to a higher level than previously expected.

“It is premature to signal how high rates should go,” she said, while noting that the Fed’s September rate forecasts “can be taken as a starting point of my current thinking, with the possibility of a higher path depending on incoming information.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-coll ... 00605.html

The last sentence is what Powell should have spent more time articulating instead of just firing from the hip. He will be remembered as one of the worst Fed heads of all time. It is unlikely that the Republicans if they win the next presidency will have any desire to deal with him

[SOL]

The Fed has been stepping on the gas raising interest rates this year and now its time to pump the brakes, said Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin on Friday.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e65204f7-eb ... lower.html

[deepthinker]

'From dove to hawk in 30 minutes': Strategists react to Fed interest rate decision

Markets initially rose following the announcement but lost momentum after Chair Jerome Powell asserted in a post-meeting press conference that the U.S. central bank had a "ways to go" before pausing its monetary tightening campaign.

Analysts at Bank of America said the FOMC's policy statement had "hawkish and dovish notes," while JPMorgan's take on the event was blunt: "From dove to hawk in 30 minutes."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fomc-sta ... 45404.html

Contrast that to the statement from the BOE. I think Powell is bluffing. He can't keep pushing rates past a certain point. The reason there are so many job openings is it is impossible to find workers with good attitudes. There are stories everywhere of businesses sometimes having to go through hundreds of candidates and coming up empty.


One of many stories

The 49% of small business job openings that are vacant “far exceeds” the 48-year historical average of 23%, according to The Wall Street Journal. (RELATED: ‘A Definite Slowdown’: Business Owners Say They’re Already Seeing Signs Of A Slowdown)

Overall, 64% of small business owners reported hiring or trying to hire in July, and 91% of those looking to do so reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill, according to the data.

https://dailycaller.com/2022/08/04/hiri ... port-says/

[MarkD]

Just read a note that stated the jobs market is not as strong as suspected. Lots of right wing conspiracy stuff and crap on ZeroHedge but there are some good nuggets if you sift through the stuff.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/somet ... lls-report