Crickets

[jonnyfrank]

I am embracing the ideas here and have been reading a lot of the recommended readings. I am also relatively new here. That said, everyone sure is quiet right now. So....any thoughts on 10 year treasury note rates and corresponding bond prices? It would seem that the funds like TMF are wound up like a rubber band right about now waiting for a nice rally, but nothing is moving. As for stocks, I understand the idea of S&P not bottoming (for now) until it hits 3800, but what thoughts come to mind from everyone? Money will be made, yes, but the big question is when to take cold cash and deploy it? And back to that crummy question....what if it is different this time, and the Biden mafia really is taking the world economy down for a long, long time? The western "leaders" are drunk on their soy milk, and beta males are running amok. What to do?

[AstuteShift]

Same ploy, different puppets

However, it has been an interesting tale in order flow and bets, the whales have been piling on massive pits and distribution of the dark pool prints

My focus is simple, long term puts on SPX, Tesla etc.
weekly sell of credit call spreads on SPX also for more gains.

Despite the mayhem, long term this market will go to the next galaxy no doubt. However we need a massive dose of steam let out, the FED comes in and prints more money and voila we back in hyper bull mode

Who needs drama when you have the markets?

[jonnyfrank]

The next time I get into with my girlfriend I am going reference you. "Who needs your drama, mama.....I have the markets!". That will go over well, I am sure.

[SOL]

The next time I get into with my girlfriend I am going reference you. "Who needs your drama, mama.....I have the markets!". That will go over well, I am sure.

Should make for a Kodak Moment, or in today's terms a smartphone moment.

Having said, that one would almost think that Russia has KGB sleeper agents in the White House administration, for they are doing even more damage than Putin could have ever dreamed of. This ban on selling chips to China will backfire and some companies might just leave the US. If this article is true, AMD sold more chips to china than to the USA in 2020

AMD’s China revenue ($2.33 billion) was just some $30 million more than the US revenue ($2.29 billion), with AMD showing roughly the same amount of growth in both countries over the last year. Taiwan came in third, generating a revenue of just over a billion, followed closely by Europe and Japan.

Compared to 2019, AMD’s China revenue in 2020 grew by 34%, while the US lagged slightly behind at 30%. Other than these two countries, no other region accounted for more than 10% of AMD’s total revenue in 2020.

https://www.hardwaretimes.com/in-2020-c ... an-the-us/

This means they probably sold more or close to the same amount in 2021. At some point, the big players are going to say, hey, the US accounts for less than half of the combined worldwide demand so if we move operations, we could make more and wait for it, charge the US a relocation fee which could be 5X for the chips they need. As we need them we will have to pay the price, much the same as Europe is paying for natural gas today


There are ranging estimates but China accounts for 40 to 60% of worldwide semiconductor consumption and that number will only rise, So if you throw in the rest of the world it seems like the US is shooting itself in the foot once again. Maybe some or many of the top players here might say to hell with you Uncle Sam, we are in the business of making money not listening to senile burros

China will become the world’s leading semiconductor superpower on the basis of its growing domestic demand for the chips, according to GlobalData thematic research. The semiconductor industry will double in size to more than $1trn by 2030, and China will account for approximately 60% of that growth, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group.

However, China’s long-standing ambition to become the leader of the Fourth Industrial Revolution may depend upon how self-sufficient in chip production the country will become by 2030. At present, China consumes around 40% of all chips made globally, while being only 12% self-sufficient, according to GlobalData. The country’s requirement for semiconductors reflects its leading position in the development of smart, connected environments commonly known as the internet of things (IoT).

https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/analys ... rowth-2030

[Centeron631]

Astuteshift wrote: "My focus is simple, long term puts on SPX, Tesla etc. " AS- i was wondering concerning the buy of naked puts or perhaps u r referring to buying of covered puts? that why buy now but instead wait for a mkt rally (as expected by TIT) so they will be cheaper. When do u like to jump in on these buys. And what is ur target date term (which i would assume is based on ur expectation of the markets at that time). If my understanding is incorrect by all means please correct my thoughts as would not be my first Mis Take. thks

[Yodean]

That said, everyone sure is quiet right now. So....any thoughts on 10 year treasury note rates and corresponding bond prices? It would seem that the funds like TMF are wound up like a rubber band right about now waiting for a nice rally, but nothing is moving. As for stocks, I understand the idea of S&P not bottoming (for now) until it hits 3800, but what thoughts come to mind from everyone?

Well, peeps might be quiet because they are buying. I certainly am. We're bottoming here somewhat, I would think. Buying lots today, including TMF.

Besides using margin, another way to buy while conserving cash is to buy LEAPS on stocks you want to own with a strike slightly above market. 100 shares = 1 call. Using up less cash than buying shares outright, while preserving most of the upside.

Also you can sell 100 of your shares in a certain position and buy 1 long LEAPS as a substitute, thereby freeing up more cash.

Lol, I'm Cannonballing a touch here, in a way.

nfa ...

[LoriPrecisely]

That said, everyone sure is quiet right now. So....any thoughts on 10 year treasury note rates and corresponding bond prices? It would seem that the funds like TMF are wound up like a rubber band right about now waiting for a nice rally, but nothing is moving. As for stocks, I understand the idea of S&P not bottoming (for now) until it hits 3800, but what thoughts come to mind from everyone?

Well, peeps might be quiet because they are buying. I certainly am. We're bottoming here somewhat, I would think. Buying lots today, including TMF.

Besides using margin, another way to buy while conserving cash is to buy LEAPS on stocks you want to own with a strike slightly above market. 100 shares = 1 call. Using up less cash than buying shares outright, while preserving most of the upside.

Also you can sell 100 of your shares in a certain position and buy 1 long LEAPS as a substitute, thereby freeing up more cash.

Lol, I'm Cannonballing a touch here, in a way.

nfa ...

I am quiet because I am out of money.
I deployed it all into stocks when we were told to expect a fast and furious rally.

When the market was rising in mid-August, I bought all of my covered calls back so I could sell my stocks at what I thought would be higher prices. I then sold some cash secured Puts, which are now deep in the money. So, I am buying them back and rolling them out. I bought several Calls, but they are worth a fraction of what I paid for them.

I now know I would have been much better off to continue with my original strategy rather than to change my plays based on a future prediction.

So, now, I am just waiting. If the rally does not occur by mid-September, I will sell shares at a loss in order to secure some capital so I can get back into the option game. I really like the Wheel Strategy the most.

If the rally does occur, I will be glad to sell my shares so I can be all-in on Option Trading.

Yodean, I like your thinking to sell shares and then buy LEAPS.
The thing I don't like is that they expire, and possibly expire worthless.
I am starting to learn about Butterfly Spreads and Bear Call Spreads and Iron Condors.

[AstuteShift]

Astuteshift wrote: "My focus is simple, long term puts on SPX, Tesla etc. " AS- i was wondering concerning the buy of naked puts or perhaps u r referring to buying of covered puts? that why buy now but instead wait for a mkt rally (as expected by TIT) so they will be cheaper. When do u like to jump in on these buys. And what is ur target date term (which i would assume is based on ur expectation of the markets at that time). If my understanding is incorrect by all means please correct my thoughts as would not be my first Mis Take. thks

It’s the concept of the early bird gets the worm. These are buy puts and are a year out. You never deploy your full capital at once in a position. If the market rallies then I can add on more slowly and methodically

This is high risk regardless, markets could rally but the FED and it’s friends are hell bent to make more people poor, raise interest rates due to the BS manflation.

[AstuteShift]

The next time I get into with my girlfriend I am going reference you. "Who needs your drama, mama.....I have the markets!". That will go over well, I am sure.

Women love you more when you ignore them.

The concept of who cares less is always the victor

[Yodean]

Yodean, I like your thinking to sell shares and then buy LEAPS.
The thing I don't like is that they expire, and possibly expire worthless.
I am starting to learn about Butterfly Spreads and Bear Call Spreads and Iron Condors.

The way I think about LEAPS (at least 12+ months expiry duration), striking just above market is this: in the next 12+ months, what are the chances that this particular stock will be higher than today?

So for example, to free up more cash/margin, I sold a bunch of AMD shares today and replaced with jan24-80c (bought when AMD was trading below 80), as well as accumulated extra jan24-80c (added to overall long position on AMD).

The probability that within the next 16+ months that AMD will not trade significantly above 80 is fairly small, imo.

Did the same with a bunch of other stocks. Of course, can't Spin The Wheel on these once you do that (I don't like trying to SCC or SCP on LEAPS - too gimmicky - imo), but frees up more cash/margin, thereby saving on interest.

But with stocks that pay a good dividend (e.g. INTC, IBM, URNM, etc.), I don't replace them with LEAPs. I DRIP and Spin The Wheel on them.

As for other option strategies mentioned, atm I generally stay away from any option strategy that has an animal attached to its name.

[Yodean]

These are buy puts and are a year out. You never deploy your full capital at once in a position. If the market rallies then I can add on more slowly and methodically

I may be late, but I'm going to wait a bit and buy LEAPS puts as a hedge later this year or early next, depending on what happens.

Sentiment measures may be manipulated, but they still offer some value. Also, COT data is somewhat ambivalent atm, to my eyes, but the "smart money" seems to be going long here, as far as equities are concerned.

USD looks like it's going to top out at around 110 in the near-term (could have a bit of overshoot to 114 or so), consolidate with mild bearish bias, so would coincide with a volatile, sideways, wide range-bound equity market with bullish bias.

The current volatility is driving a lot of investors nuts - music to my years. I generally like chaos.

[jonnyfrank]

One could reasonably conclude that the markets did not like the satanic address Lew Cipher (aka Joe Biden) gave in Philadelphia last night.

[Yodean]

One could reasonably conclude that the markets did not like the satanic address Lew Cipher (aka Joe Biden) gave in Philadelphia last night.

Brandon's a puppet, at best. I personally believe the more politics one watches, the worse one's investing/trading results. Politics are generally a distraction. Good entertainment, at best.

Peeps are worried, nervous ... combine that with sentiment measures, COT data, mainstream headlines, etc. and on balance, markets are climbing a Wall Of Worry again. USD topping on an interim basis, gold and silver look ready to start slowly going up, etc. All consistent with the WOW up as my base case atm.

BTFD! Nfa ...

[jonnyfrank]

Yes, I do indeed agree, but unfortunately the masses do react and it does impact the markets.

[MarkD]

90% of Fintwit thinks Brandon is an idiot.