Interim Update Aug 17-19, 2022

[SOL]

More notes might be added to this update, hence the wider date format on the subject line.

The daily chart of the SPX (SP500 futures)



Predicting what will occur over short-term timelines is more challenging, especially when volatility levels are higher than average. Our overall outlook still calls for the markets to rally until Sept/Oct timelines, and the earliest they are expected to top would be around the 3rd week of September. The SPX is running into a stiff zone of resistance, which falls in the 4280 - 4400 ranges. Remember, a top does not mean the markets will crash the next day. Once a top is in place, you have topping action, and the downward phase starts when that completes. At the moment, the SPX is putting in a short-term top formation. Once in place, it could last for as little as three days or as long as nine days. After that, the markets should resume their rally before running into longer-term resistance.

Bitcoin is having problems clearing the 24,850 mark; If it does not achieve this soon, it will likely break below 18K again.

Oil is still consolidating and could test the 78 to 81 ranges before bottoming out. After that, oil is expected to rally and then peak towards the last week of September. If this turns out to be a lower high, it will serve as an early warning signal that the markets are getting ready to reverse course and resume their downward trend. Risk takers could go long via UCO when oil trades in the above stated ranges.

[bpcw]

Thanks Sol for the update, really informative!

I won't bite your hand and I won't kiss your ass either, I try to give credit where it's due but gently and respectfully challenge where I think something is wrong or needs improving, of course I can be wrong and will admit it when I am. I believe this approach is called maturity!

[Budge]

More notes might be added to this update, hence the wider date format on the subject line.

The daily chart of the SPX (SP500 futures)



Predicting what will occur over short-term timelines is more challenging, especially when volatility levels are higher than average. Our overall outlook still calls for the markets to rally until Sept/Oct timelines, and the earliest they are expected to top would be around the 3rd week of September. The SPX is running into a stiff zone of resistance, which falls in the 4280 - 4400 ranges. Remember, a top does not mean the markets will crash the next day. Once a top is in place, you have topping action, and the downward phase starts when that completes. At the moment, the SPX is putting in a short-term top formation. Once in place, it could last for as little as three days or as long as nine days. After that, the markets should resume their rally before running into longer-term resistance.

Bitcoin is having problems clearing the 24,850 mark; If it does not achieve this soon, it will likely break below 18K again.

Oil is still consolidating and could test the 78 to 81 ranges before bottoming out. After that, oil is expected to rally and then peak towards the last week of September. If this turns out to be a lower high, it will serve as an early warning signal that the markets are getting ready to reverse course and resume their downward trend. Risk takers could go long via UCO when oil trades in the above stated ranges.

S&P500's zone of resistance includes 200-day MA at 4321.

[SOL]

Thanks Sol for the update, really informative!

I won't bite your hand and I won't kiss your ass either, I try to give credit where it's due but gently and respectfully challenge where I think something is wrong or needs improving, of course I can be wrong and will admit it when I am. I believe this approach is called maturity!

Hahaha, you made my day. The first sentence was a killer. I can only imagine what Harry might come up with. Hopefully, he is in a tame mood today.


I would never expect the Jedi of the light to do anything less. FYI that saying was put up as a general saying and in no way was it supposed to reference my hand, plus I don't like to kick I prefer to shake hands lol

[Do-or-Die]

S&P500's zone of resistance includes 200-day MA at 4321.

I was lightening over the past few days. Did a lot of unloading yesterday as I too feel that a short term top is in place, but if its not, oh well, there is always another opportunity waiting to be spotted.

[Budge]

S&P500's zone of resistance includes 200-day MA at 4321.

I was lightening over the past few days. Did a lot of unloading yesterday as I too feel that a short term top is in place, but if its not, oh well, there is always another opportunity waiting to be spotted.

My 2c

Here's a screenshot of daily SPX from thinkorswim. Below the volume is ADX which is going up and suggest SPX goes higher.

[MarkD]

fyi

XLE with Rabil's ADX (13,8)

https://imgur.com/a/l0Z3B7y

[MarkD]

And SPX, currently not exhibiting a divergence on the ADX and above the VWAP from the ATH.

https://imgur.com/IWOYHYT

[SOL]

BPCW this Icon might suit you lol

[bpcw]

Thanks Sol for the update, really informative!

I won't bite your hand and I won't kiss your ass either, I try to give credit where it's due but gently and respectfully challenge where I think something is wrong or needs improving, of course I can be wrong and will admit it when I am. I believe this approach is called maturity!

Hahaha, you made my day. The first sentence was a killer. I can only imagine what Harry might come up with. Hopefully, he is in a tame mood today.


I would never expect the Jedi of the light to do anything less. FYI that saying was put up as a general saying and in no way was it supposed to reference my hand, plus I don't like to kick I prefer to shake hands lol

I noticed the statement and thought it was a recent change, perhaps in response to some of the challenging comments on another post. I wasn't being defensive for that matter, I haven't commented much of late re. TI but I was merely stating for all to see that challenging respectfully is appropriate at times and we shouldn't follow anyone blindly, I know you'd agree with me.

[SOL]

Thanks Sol for the update, really informative!

I won't bite your hand and I won't kiss your ass either, I try to give credit where it's due but gently and respectfully challenge where I think something is wrong or needs improving, of course I can be wrong and will admit it when I am. I believe this approach is called maturity!

Hahaha, you made my day. The first sentence was a killer. I can only imagine what Harry might come up with. Hopefully, he is in a tame mood today.


I would never expect the Jedi of the light to do anything less. FYI that saying was put up as a general saying and in no way was it supposed to reference my hand, plus I don't like to kick I prefer to shake hands lol

I noticed the statement and thought it was a recent change, perhaps in response to some of the challenging comments on another post. I wasn't being defensive for that matter, I haven't commented much of late re. TI but I was merely stating for all to see that challenging respectfully is appropriate at times and we shouldn't follow anyone blindly, I know you'd agree with me.

I agree wholeheartedly no sane person should follow anyone blindly nor should they follow anyone with full sight. No one knows everything, I subscribe to the greater fool theory or the TI version which is that we are all idiots trying to be less idiotic hahaha. There is just too much to learn and in that sense there can be no masters but only fools that create masters to reflect what they would like to be but are too scared to become

As for the challenging comments without challenge, there can be no progress. Challenges should be viewed as positive resistance to overcome but in the right manner. It is far better to solve a problem with an open hand then a fist

[bpcw]

BPCW this Icon might suit you lol

I avoid labels, titles etc., I prefer to be a nobody, so avoided an icon.

Might just be better to have a cheesy picture of Jesus, the light of the world! I know a few people might throw up after reading this but it's how I feel!

[SOL]

I avoid labels, titles etc., I prefer to be a nobody, so avoided an icon.

Might just be better to have a cheesy picture of Jesus, the light of the world! I know a few people might throw up after reading this but it's how I feel!

send me a few images via private message and I will see what our guy can do. Resistance is good. In general, what we don't like is generally a reference to what we fear. So its better to understand the issue than fight it with distate. Understanding the problem is the first step to enlightenment

[LoriPrecisely]

WOLF closed at $85 dollars today, and it jumped to $100 after hours!!!
I was going to buy it in the morning.
Oh, well.
I have 3 $100 Calls for WOLF, with Sept 16 expiry, which I bought for $200 each.
Now, I have to decide if I will sell them, or hold.

[Yodean]

S&P500's zone of resistance includes 200-day MA at 4321.

Yep, apparently a lot of traders (both retail and bigger) are watching this level carefully and shorting here.

But y'know what they say about the Horde ... if I had to guess, I suspect a lot of volatility around this level before a breakthrough to the upside.

Or maybe the downside. Or maybe range-bound.