Tiny Interim Update July 30, 2022

[SOL]

Kick----Fall-----Base----Push-----Thrust------Plateau------Plunge

Yesterday's action pushed the markets almost to the mid-point of the Push phase. So one should expect a minor wave of resistance as we get to the middle of that phase and stronger resistance when they get to the very beginning of the Thrust phase; this will probably correspond to some pullback in the first 7 to 14 trading of August. Once we get past the Thrust phase, the rally should turn explosive.

Many companies that would normally collapse after missing earnings or stating they were facing challenges have recouped, and some are even trading higher. Many people expected AMZN and Apple to disappoint, but they did not. Bullish sentiment will start trending higher, and shortly many will forget the difficult period they went through in 2022. The big players are executing almost flawlessly in regards to what will possibly be dubbed as the Massacre of 2022-2023

Now is a good time as any to familiarise yourself with the concept of Manufacturing consent

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuwmWnphqII&t=211s

[AstuteShift]

On short term timeframes, daily, 4h, slight topping formation and a pullback will certainly waken up the perma bears from their dreadful beating

If the SPX forms the higher low then I can see the thrust action to 4200 + on SPX. It will be a good time to sell put spreads at that dip and purchase cheap calls

The VIX is coiling into a falling wedge pattern that is usually very bullish in terms of patterns. Once the market hits the upper levels of bullish sentiment, I’ll be looking into 11/2022 VIX calls.

In terms of options flow into the fall, the big whales have been purchasing a ton of puts in the 9/2022 and 11/2022 timeframe. Huge bets.

This period, if done correctly, can make someone very rich very quickly. Volatility is a traders best friend

[Yodean]

The VIX is coiling into a falling wedge pattern that is usually very bullish in terms of patterns. Once the market hits the upper levels of bullish sentiment, I’ll be looking into 11/2022 VIX calls.

In terms of options flow into the fall, the big whales have been purchasing a ton of puts in the 9/2022 and 11/2022 timeframe. Huge bets.

1) Yeh, I look at the VIX daily, on days when I trade, at least once or twice. At some point there looks to be a significant possibility of a spike to the upside, perhaps coinciding with a Q4 or '23Q1 equity market drawdown.

2) Interpreting the big whales' put options in the fall/winter is somewhat tricky, at least for me. On one hand, they may be simply hedging their long equity positions (because they too think that there will be some type of Q4 slaughter of the bulls). On the other hand, from a sentiment contrarian perspective, this is actually somewhat bullish - i.e. more and more people are expecting a big drawdown in the fall, in the equity indices.

Every bull run starts with a short-covering rally as it climbs a Wall Of Worry ... but then again, so do bull traps. The Hammer Of Doom will indeed fall next quarter, but on whom ... bulls or bears?