The big opportunity in blockchain

[nicolas]

I was thinking about the early days of the Internet and how difficult it must have been to make a website back then. One that worked well on different browsers with different specs. With a limited number of tools at your disposal and nobody to teach you…

But over time, people came up with solutions. The Internet saw the creation of:

• New jobs: web developers, web designers, …

• New standards: HTML5, CSS3, multiple iterations of JavaScript, …

• New tools: libraries for developers, WordPress, drag-and-drop page builders, …

• Even newer tools: AI solutions to translate text instructions into blocks of code.

Now, everyone can make their own personal website, supported by all browsers, responsive from mobile to desktop screens, even if they don’t know the first thing about coding, and even for free.

The blockchain ecosystem isn’t there yet.

But it will need to be because the technology isn’t going anywhere. It’s here to stay.

Many crypto coins will disappear, and some will find their new price well off their highs. But, just like AI is a game-changer, blockchain technology will profoundly transform how many industries operate.

Smart contracts will disrupt how we do business. And NFTs are not just overpriced jpegs of monkeys. They have many useful applications in health care, finance, video games, supply chain management, etc.

But the issue is, for now, all these applications existing on top of different blockchains are not exactly “user-friendly”. A major roadblock to adoption is that so much relies on individual responsibility, which most people try to run away from.

Lost your private keys and seed phrase? The coins in your wallet are gone forever.
Transferred to the wrong address? There’s no cancel button, no refund.
Sent to a network not supported by your exchange? Poof! Evaporated into thin air.

The technical and mental barriers to entry make the crypto space reserved for pioneers only. So, there’s a lot of value just sitting there, waiting to be unlocked.

How do entrepreneurs make money? By solving a problem. The bigger the problem and the more people have this problem, the more money they make.

That’s why I think the innovators who make blockchain solutions easier to access for most people are going to do extremely well. Unlocking pockets of value for themselves and their shareholders, or more likely, for their “token-holders.”

[Triplethought]

I was thinking about the early days of the Internet and how difficult it must have been to make a website back then. One that worked well on different browsers with different specs. With a limited number of tools at your disposal and nobody to teach you…

But over time, people came up with solutions. The Internet saw the creation of:

• New jobs: web developers, web designers, …

• New standards: HTML5, CSS3, multiple iterations of JavaScript, …

• New tools: libraries for developers, WordPress, drag-and-drop page builders, …

• Even newer tools: AI solutions to translate text instructions into blocks of code.

Now, everyone can make their own personal website, supported by all browsers, responsive from mobile to desktop screens, even if they don’t know the first thing about coding, and even for free.

The blockchain ecosystem isn’t there yet.

But it will need to be because the technology isn’t going anywhere. It’s here to stay.

Many crypto coins will disappear, and some will find their new price well off their highs. But, just like AI is a game-changer, blockchain technology will profoundly transform how many industries operate.

Smart contracts will disrupt how we do business. And NFTs are not just overpriced jpegs of monkeys. They have many useful applications in health care, finance, video games, supply chain management, etc.

But the issue is, for now, all these applications existing on top of different blockchains are not exactly “user-friendly”. A major roadblock to adoption is that so much relies on individual responsibility, which most people try to run away from.

Lost your private keys and seed phrase? The coins in your wallet are gone forever.
Transferred to the wrong address? There’s no cancel button, no refund.
Sent to a network not supported by your exchange? Poof! Evaporated into thin air.

The technical and mental barriers to entry make the crypto space reserved for pioneers only. So, there’s a lot of value just sitting there, waiting to be unlocked.

How do entrepreneurs make money? By solving a problem. The bigger the problem and the more people have this problem, the more money they make.

That’s why I think the innovators who make blockchain solutions easier to access for most people are going to do extremely well. Unlocking pockets of value for themselves and their shareholders, or more likely, for their “token-holders.”

I think it starts with understanding the PKI math. Once you get the concept that there is a "key" to lock a door and a separate key that unlocks the door (envision a door knob with 2 key holes) you realize someone who has the key to lock the door can't necessarily unlock it. and vice versa. except the "keys" are long strings of digital numbers. That is the beginning of the understanding. It's hard to wrap your mind around all the ways the algo can be useful and that you can't calculate the 2nd number by merely having the first plus knowing the allorhythmia.

Interesting that you think stock ownership will become a block chain. It actually makes sense. But block chain is fairly compute and storage heavy because of how it tracks every transaction and includes it in the chain. That is a lot of overhead.

In a world where we're still struggling to speed up databases (think of stupid ones like the one in quickbooks) I'm not sure slowing down data access to important data using decentralized blockchain will happen soon. But it would be useful to have your healthcare records in a blockchain that you control access to. Many other examples. I wonder if the innovations will come from mathematicians in the university or from programmers or from dedicated block chain hardware engines.

[Yodean]

Many crypto coins will disappear, and some will find their new price well off their highs. But, just like AI is a game-changer, blockchain technology will profoundly transform how many industries operate.

Smart contracts will disrupt how we do business. And NFTs are not just overpriced jpegs of monkeys. They have many useful applications in health care, finance, video games, supply chain management, etc.

But the issue is, for now, all these applications existing on top of different blockchains are not exactly “user-friendly”. A major roadblock to adoption is that so much relies on individual responsibility, which most people try to run away from.

Yeh, long-term, I am very bullish on blockchain. You've listed a lot of "positive" applications - all of with which I completely concur - but I am also massively bullish on blockchain because of its potential "negative" applications.

A few examples of "-ve" applications:

-governments, centralized authorities, etc., will use blockchain in different ways for improved surveillance and control of the masses - they'll be able to calculate your carbon footprint to the last 1/10th of a satoshi, as well as tax the sh*t out of you, and know exactly what your are doing with your $$$-CBDC (which they consider theirs, not really yours).

-they'll know who's jabbed and who's not, and who's jabbed but not boostered, and who tested +ve for monkeypox, while ignoring those suffering mightily from the real virus, a.k.a. the moneypox;

I'm sure if one has the means, there will always be avenues to beat the Blockchain Surveillance System (BSS), but it will become increasingly challenging, particularly in Western demoncracies. Barter markets, dark web, etc. will grow and take on more importance for those able to critically think for themselves.

[nicolas]

Interesting that you think stock ownership will become a block chain. It actually makes sense. But block chain is fairly compute and storage heavy because of how it tracks every transaction and includes it in the chain. That is a lot of overhead.

I wasn't thinking about the stock market in general here (though this could happen too, and indeed, it makes sense in the long term.) But for the companies that are building these tools to enable wider adoption of blockchain solutions, the way to play them will probably be through their token since they may not go public on the centralized exchanges we're used to.

[Yodean]

Harry and I were just discussing the current state of crypto. exchanges.

As many of you know, I keep it simple by using bito and ethx (canadian), and Spinning the Wheel on those assets in a regular brokerage. They're not perfect, by any means, but serve my purposes atm and I also don't have to worry about crypto. exchange risk.

*****

Here's a gr8 read on cryptos., defi, tradfi, crypto. exchanges, etc. and how they relate together:

https://www.lynalden.com/defi-problems/

*****

It's one of the best crypto. articles I've read recently. The writer is very good at explaining complex ideas in an accessible form for the hardworking retail investor at an intermediate level, without oversimplifying and losing all the nuances that this emerging financial sector requires.

Highly recommended.

[outof thebox]

Harry and I were just discussing the current state of crypto. exchanges.

As many of you know, I keep it simple by using bito and ethx (canadian), and Spinning the Wheel on those assets in a regular brokerage. They're not perfect, by any means, but serve my purposes atm and I also don't have to worry about crypto. exchange risk.

*****

Here's a gr8 read on cryptos., defi, tradfi, crypto. exchanges, etc. and how they relate together:

https://www.lynalden.com/defi-problems/

*****

It's one of the best crypto. articles I've read recently. The writer is very good at explaining complex ideas in an accessible form for the hardworking retail investor at an intermediate level, without oversimplifying and losing all the nuances that this emerging financial sector requires.

Highly recommended.

Not to long ago every SOB was in love with BTC now they all hate it. Probably one more washout phase before I think about taking a bigger bite. But what if it happens to go the way of the Tulip.

[Yodean]

Not to long ago every SOB was in love with BTC now they all hate it. Probably one more washout phase before I think about taking a bigger bite. But what if it happens to go the way of the Tulip.

BTC is the real thing, so is blockchain. Prolly ETH is good to go as well, although somewhat more centralized, and founders tend to dump on retail at the top (i.e. most recently, just under 5k).

Most alt. coins, to my knowledge, have not survived more than one or two btc cycles at most (each btc cycle is roughly 4 years - the count started in 2009) without busting.

The Lightning Network (a functional payments layer on top of btc) is currently making good progress quietly.

The Crypto. Crash of '22 is not a bad thing, long-term - it gets rid of a lot of the bogus alt. coins, dubious exchanges, excessive margin/leverage in the crypto space, etc.

Unfortunately, it feels somewhat "planned" - the whole sbf/ftx stuff - paving the way for more regulations and surveillance, and of course, taxation.

As usual, Goldman Sachs gives out clues - it waits for a sector to get demolished first (often, some of its members are behind the demolishing) - before moving in and accumulating:

https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/12/09/g ... t-bitcoin/

Apparently, Goldman Sachs is now planning to invest tens of millions into the crypto. space over the next several years.

*****

Wrt to btc price action, the 12k - 15k zone still looks extremely strong to me. I've been saying this for quite a while now, fwiw.

With btc, anything is possible - even sub-10k. But I am cautiously optimistic that near the time of its next halving in '24, btc will challenge the 50k to 70k zone.

The calls for btc to reach 9k, even 3k, which you are hearing a bit more and more currently remind me of when many decent crypto. analysts (if there is such a thing, or is that an oxymoron) were calling for 100k+ btc when btc was breaking 60k to the upside last year.

Not impossible, of course, but less likely. That final "washout" or massive leg down/selling climax doesn't always happen. And if it does happen, as you know, it generally doesn't happen when a lot of people are expecting it or looking for it.

Btc is special. It is not "crypto" anymore. It's certainly not equivalent to a crypto. exchange.

As long as blockchain exists and continues to evolve, btc will be around.

[outof thebox]

Not to long ago every SOB was in love with BTC now they all hate it. Probably one more washout phase before I think about taking a bigger bite. But what if it happens to go the way of the Tulip.

BTC is the real thing, so is blockchain. Prolly ETH is good to go as well, although somewhat more centralized, and founders tend to dump on retail at the top (i.e. most recently, just under 5k).

Most alt. coins, to my knowledge, have not survived more than one or two btc cycles at most (each btc cycle is roughly 4 years - the count started in 2009) without busting.

The Lightning Network (a functional payments layer on top of btc) is currently making good progress quietly.

The Crypto. Crash of '22 is not a bad thing, long-term - it gets rid of a lot of the bogus alt. coins, dubious exchanges, excessive margin/leverage in the crypto space, etc.

Unfortunately, it feels somewhat "planned" - the whole sbf/ftx stuff - paving the way for more regulations and surveillance, and of course, taxation.

As usual, Goldman Sachs gives out clues - it waits for a sector to get demolished first (often, some of its members are behind the demolishing) - before moving in and accumulating:

https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/12/09/g ... t-bitcoin/

Apparently, Goldman Sachs is now planning to invest tens of millions into the crypto. space over the next several years.

*****

Wrt to btc price action, the 12k - 15k zone still looks extremely strong to me. I've been saying this for quite a while now, fwiw.

With btc, anything is possible - even sub-10k. But I am cautiously optimistic that near the time of its next halving in '24, btc will challenge the 50k to 70k zone.

The calls for btc to reach 9k, even 3k, which you are hearing a bit more and more currently remind me of when many decent crypto. analysts (if there is such a thing, or is that an oxymoron) were calling for 100k+ btc when btc was breaking 60k to the upside last year.

Not impossible, of course, but less likely. That final "washout" or massive leg down/selling climax doesn't always happen. And if it does happen, as you know, it generally doesn't happen when a lot of people are expecting it or looking for it.

Btc is special. It is not "crypto" anymore. It's certainly not equivalent to a crypto. exchange.

As long as blockchain exists and continues to evolve, btc will be around.

Interesting points Jedi Ninja or is it Ninja jedi. I will look into adding some GBTC to my holdings

[Yodean]

Interesting points Jedi Ninja or is it Ninja jedi. I will look into adding some GBTC to my holdings

Ninjedi - combines the best parts of ninjas and jedis. Also a bit of a workaround regarding classic Jedi doctrine that good jedis can't f*ck around.

Be careful with GBTC. Besides its trading at a huge discount to its NAV, it's either going to do really, really well when btc resumes its bull run (i.e. if/when GBTC gets turned into the first U.S.-based spot btc etf), or GBTC can really screw you.

I switched to bito quite a while ago because of its optionality - gbtc lacks optionality, so you can't sell covered calls or puts on it, while you can on bito.

[SOL]

Interesting points Jedi Ninja or is it Ninja jedi. I will look into adding some GBTC to my holdings

Some things to keep in mind when looking at BITO, and GBTC. First, let the chart do the talking



Second BITO is backed by futures, a sneaky smart way to get an ETF listing where GBTC failed (at least for now), but this comes at a high cost. When you are using futures to mimic the movement of any market, there are many risks, the biggest of which is slippage.

GBTC is also trading at close to a 45% discount to its holdings of BTC. https://www.coinglass.com/Grayscale

The not-so-good
It won't share proof of reserves

"Due to security concerns, we do not make such on-chain wallet information and confirmation data publicly available through a cryptographic Proof-of-Reserve, or other advanced cryptographic accounting procedure," said a statement Friday.

Cryptocurrency is a high risk venture, and that is why we have listed all our holdings in bright red text (very high risk)