Food and energy wars

[SOL]

Indonesia, the world's top cooking-oil exporter, says it's going to ban exports of the oil this week, and it's sent the global prices of edible oils soaring



Indonesia, a top palm-oil exporter, is planning to ban exports beginning on Thursday. Palm oil, the world's most used vegetable oil, is used in cooking and a range of consumer products. Palm-oil and competing soybean-oil prices are jumping after news of the ban.

The world's top palm-oil producer announced that it would ban exports of the commodity starting on Thursday, sending the prices of edible oils soaring.

Indonesia accounts for about half of the world's supply of palm oil, the world's most widely used vegetable oil. Palm oil is used for cooking and for the production of thousands of consumer products, including biscuits, detergents, and lipsticks.

In a video statement on Friday, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said the move was designed to bring down domestic palm-oil prices and ensure domestic food availability in the wake of global food inflation.

"I will monitor and evaluate the implementation of this policy so availability of cooking oil in the domestic market becomes abundant and affordable," Widodo said, a Reuters translation reported.

The move comes as Indonesia has seen recent protests over the high prices of cooking oil, with retail prices gaining more than 40% so far this year, Reuters reported.

The ban is expected to be in place until further notice. Indonesian palm-oil exports were worth about $30 billion in 2021, the data provider Statista showed.

https://sports.yahoo.com/indonesia-worl ... irculation



It is quite telling that Indonesia is banning exports of Palm oil and even more that they challenged the USA and invited Putin to the G20 meeting despite the US demanding that Putin be banned. A new world order is in the works and for now Europe will pay the most for their folly

[SOL]

Poland and Bulgaria braced for halt to Russian gas supplies


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Russia is to halt the flow of gas to Poland and Bulgaria from Wednesday, according to authorities in both EU nations, as Moscow steps up its efforts to weaponise energy supplies over the invasion of Ukraine.

PGNiG, the Polish state-controlled gas group, stated on Tuesday that Russian supplier Gazprom had informed it of a “complete suspension of supplies” under its Yamal contract effective from 8am Polish time on April 27.

And late on Tuesday, Bulgaria’s energy ministry said Gazprom had told its state gas company, Bulgargaz, that it would halt gas supplies as of Wednesday as well.

Sofia said it had taken steps to find alternative arrangements for the supply of natural gas and to deal with the situation.

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“This is a warning shot to the rest of Europe,” said Laurent Ruseckas, an energy analyst at S&P Global, who added that drawing in alternative supplies from Germany to Poland would put further pressure on European gas prices.

Front-month future contracts tied to the TTF, Europe’s benchmark natural gas price, spiked as much as 15 per cent on Tuesday following local media reports on Russia’s plans to suspend gas flows to Warsaw.

Europe received about 40 per cent of its gas from Russia before the invasion of Ukraine and while the EU aims to reduce that reliance by two-thirds by the end of the year, member states would struggle to sustain economic activity with a prolonged cut-off of Russian supplies.
https://www.ft.com/content/7872ad6a-918 ... hoo/auddev

[Yodean]

Poland and Bulgaria braced for halt to Russian gas supplies
“This is a warning shot to the rest of Europe,” said Laurent Ruseckas, an energy analyst at S&P Global, who added that drawing in alternative supplies from Germany to Poland would put further pressure on European gas prices.

I don't see many scenarios where Western Europe does well for the next 5 to 10 years, and likely longer.

For all of North America's problems, Western Europe will "fall" well before the former, I would think. The latter will be crushed like little bug by strong man carrying big kettlebell after eating lots of pho.

[SOL]

Welcome to sanction-hit Russia, where prices are DOWN as Brits suffer from soaring inflation

Food costs are also coming down every month and Vladimir Putin’s people are partying as if there is no war.

Food and energy costs in Russia are a fraction of what Brits are paying


Vladimir Putin's government has subsidised food costs to ensure Russian people are not impacted by sanctions
Britain's energy bills are up by 80 per cent compared to the 10 per cent rise for Russians

Britain's energy bills are up by 80 per cent compared to the 10 per cent rise for Russians
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Boris Johnson vowed that Western sanctions would “hobble the Russian economy”.

In March, Liz Truss as Foreign Secretary announced 65 sanctions and fiercely declared: “Putin should be under no illusions. We are united with our allies and will keep tightening the screw on the Russian economy to help ensure he fails in Ukraine. There will be no let-up.”

But six months on, while we are paying the price for the invasion with a crippling cost-of-living crisis, locals in Moscow are upbeat.

It is not surprising. Despite claims they would face a severe food shortage, shoppers in Pyaterochka, Russia’s answer to Tesco, load their trolleys high with groceries half the price of ours.



https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19698308/ ... ions-food/

Winter is coming and it's not looking good for Europe. If you have the chance consider leaving for winter. Turkey is the best option as it is cheap as hell when compared to other places. The second option is Armenia, 3rd options Vietnam, Malaysia and Laos

[stefk]

https://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/les- ... -de-marche

The electricity spot market in Europe. For the moment, the price in western europe turns around 600euros per MWh
at the maximum peak. But the Iberians are more lucky, its 300% cheaper. In Europe, Portugal and Spain are an energy island. They dont rely on nordstream for their gas. Spain has 6 LNG terminals and Portugal has 1 LNG terminal.
An option would be to go in Portugal or in Spain, good food there, a lot of sun, fantastic beaches, and beautiful senoras and senoritas. But I am still working in the factory untill may 2024.

https://en.econostrum.info/Spain-and-Po ... a1499.html

[nicolas]

For a good laugh (and a lesson about contrarian signals.)

The day is December 3rd, 2020, and here's what's on the cover of The Economist:



The following week, on December 8th, 2020, KOL (the only coal ETF) is delisted.

Then, this is what happens:






Guys, thank you so much for calling the bottom

[SOL]

For a good laugh (and a lesson about contrarian signals.)

The day is December 3rd, 2020, and here's what's on the cover of The Economist:



The following week, on December 8th, 2020, KOL (the only coal ETF) is delisted.

Then, this is what happens:

Guys, thank you so much for calling the bottom

Excellent visual display of MP in action. Notice the trend towards limiting choices and also vehicles in which the average Joe could profit from potential moves.

This winter will provide a clear signal for Europe. If they don't wake up and hang their rulers, then its back to the stone ages; perhaps this trend is unstoppable

[MarkD]

I hope the trend of replacing public servants (not rulers imo) accelerates. They are not elite, simply sycophants funded by narcissists.

[SOL]

I hope the trend of replacing public servants (not rulers imo) accelerates. They are not elite, simply sycophants funded by narcissists.

I fully concur; at least the top players have a pattern and provide some clues to those willing to look. Public servants are worse than public toilets. Public toilets stink, but they still serve a function. Public servants stink, provide nothing of value for the most part(there are exceptions) and in general we would better off if 90% of them were replaced, even a burro would do a better job

[gnosis12]

Heartbreaking reality of Biden inflation: ‘People have told me I lost weight, but I can’t afford groceries’

It’s a real kick in the pocketbook.

Yesterday, it was reported that inflation rose 8.3% in August, adding to an already grim financial landscape.

Sure, gas prices are down slightly — but the cost of food, housing and other essentials remains sky-high. Across the country, Americans are struggling to get by and finding themselves having to pinch pennies.

“You want to be able to raise your child in a society where you’re able to give them the best and provide the best for them,” said Briana Howard, a 34-year-old healthcare worker who lives in Fairfax, Virginia, with her husband Ken Howard and 8-year-old daughter.

Here, she and four Americans reveal how the record inflation is wreaking havoc on their families and their futures.

Cutting coupons
Briana and Ken Howard make a combined $100,000 per year, but they’re cutting coupons and cutting back on luxuries. The family’s annual trip to the Outer Banks in North Carolina cost $700 more this summer compared to last, due to rising costs for rental properties and restaurants in the area. Their daughter’s summer camp cost $300 more this year, and an inconvenient car repair set the family back another $1,000. And, people are spending less on home repairs, cutting into Ken’s roofing business. Briana said they’re having to watch pennies in a way they never did a few years ago.

Briana Howard and her husband Ken noticed their annual family trip to the Outer Banks went up by $700. Plus, she's still paying for her daughter's summer camp, which went up nearly $50 more per week. Combined, they make more than $100K and she's finding herself cutting coupons.

Briana Howard and her husband Ken noticed their annual family trip to the Outer Banks went up by $700. Plus, she’s still paying for her daughter’s summer camp, which went up nearly $50 more per week. Combined, they make more than $100K and she’s finding herself cutting coupons.


“We’re your typical middle-income average American family,” she told The Post. “We’re more mindful at the grocery store … It’s like, ‘What do we have a coupon for?’ I mindlessly picked up a pack of $10 grapes, that’s not something I can continue to do.”

Skyrocketing insurance premiums
Rob Abiuso, 55, a Long Island-based attorney, used to enjoys dinners out at the local steakhouse twice a week. No longer. These days, he’s working to just get by, and meals out mean going to a modest diner.

“Diners have become my luxuries,” he said. “There really is no surplus income anymore. There really is no savings anymore. I pray that all this turns around.”

The cost of his home and car insurance have been a killer, and are up about 20%, he estimates.

Rob Abiuso, 55, an attorney from Long Island, swapped out steakhouses for diners when eating out. He’s having to offload one of his cars due to the nearly $12,000 in insurance premiums between his homes and vehicles.
Paul Petronella

“I make a good living for myself, but I said, ‘Why do I have no money in the bank?’ I finally started snooping around my insurance policies,” Abiuso told The Post. “I’m paying $11,500 in insurance for my home and cars — you tell me if that’s nuts.”

Surviving on Cheap Takeout

Actor/comedian Gary DeNoia has long tended bars to make ends meet, so he was financially devastated by the pandemic. He lost his restaurant gig, and “a lot of performing opportunities obviously disappeared,” he told The Post.

Initially, the Jersey City resident found a cheaper apartment to reduce some of the strain. He collected unemployment and “learned to be more resourceful.” The 38-year-old is now back working in restaurants and feels he’s making strides to dig himself out of the financial hole, but inflation and rent hikes have made it difficult.


Gary DeNoia
“People have told me I lost weight, but I can’t afford groceries,” he said. “I used to go shopping and plan my meals for the week. But [now] a Fage yogurt is $10. A bag of Doritos is $7. It’s cheaper to eat takeout … I have never eaten this much Chinese takeout because the lunch special will last me three days.”

He’s also had to cut back on how much he feeds his beloved cats.

“A can of cat food used to be like 60 cents a can,” he said. “Now the cheapest are like $1.20.”

DeNoia’s rent has now gone up as has his electricity bill, which he says will take him more than a year to pay off. “I prioritize paying my rent. I always think, ‘What can I get away with not paying today?’ I would rather PSE&G is mad at me than my landlord.”

The comedian, who has a talent for impersonations, has seen one recent bright spot: a demand for Ray Liotta voiceovers and extra cash flow as a result.

He said: “You’d be surprised how many rappers want Ray Liotta voice on their album.”

Can’t Afford a House
A few years ago, Delaney Claycomb, 28, was earning $11 an hour working at Disneyworld and SeaWorld. She was living with a roommate and “was staying afloat.” Now Claycomb is married and makes about $46,000 with tips, managing a tuxedo rental store outside of Atlanta. But she feels like she’s sinking.

“I don’t feel like I am making more even though my salary is about two and half times what it was three years ago. It’s crazy,” Claycomb told The Post, blaming inflation, credit card interest rates and rising housing costs.

Her husband Dustin works in a warehouse and the couple dream of buying a house, but a large chunk of his wages are eaten up by health insurance premiums and union dues.

https://nypost.com/2022/09/14/americans ... 47037ffa32

[Do-or-Die]

@gnosis, those that don't live within their means or below are F*****D or will soon be. The way I see it the pendulum has swung. Before the West did well at the expense of the East. There were never good times, just good times for some and bad times for a lot. Now it might shift from bad times for the fat fish and not so bad times for the lean fish

[nicolas]

Excellent visual display of MP in action. Notice the trend towards limiting choices and also vehicles in which the average Joe could profit from potential moves.

This winter will provide a clear signal for Europe. If they don't wake up and hang their rulers, then its back to the stone ages; perhaps this trend is unstoppable

I just remembered that the same thing happened with SOIL, the GlobalX Fertilizers/Potash ETF. It was delisted on 21st Aug 2020. Now, look at what the top 3 holdings MOS, OCI, and SQM did since.

(*spoiler*
...
they 3x'ed.)

There's a pattern of ETF listing near tops and delisting near major bottoms. This is to be expected since they answer a demand from crowd-following traders. There's a lot of interest and a lot of management fees to be cashed in at the top, and no business at the bottom.

When URA was created in Nov 2010, it signaled the top of the move in uranium, and it's been a steep fall from Feb 2012 to March 2020.

You need both hands to count the number of Metaverse ETFs that have popped out of nowhere since last year. Their charts look like scary waterpark slides.

[chippermon]

Excellent visual display of MP in action. Notice the trend towards limiting choices and also vehicles in which the average Joe could profit from potential moves.

This winter will provide a clear signal for Europe. If they don't wake up and hang their rulers, then its back to the stone ages; perhaps this trend is unstoppable

I just remembered that the same thing happened with SOIL, the GlobalX Fertilizers/Potash ETF. It was delisted on 21st Aug 2020. Now, look at what the top 3 holdings MOS, OCI, and SQM did since.

(*spoiler*
...
they 3x'ed.)

There's a pattern of ETF listing near tops and delisting near major bottoms. This is to be expected since they answer a demand from crowd-following traders. There's a lot of interest and a lot of management fees to be cashed in at the top, and no business at the bottom.

When URA was created in Nov 2010, it signaled the top of the move in uranium, and it's been a steep fall from Feb 2012 to March 2020.

You need both hands to count the number of Metaverse ETFs that have popped out of nowhere since last year. Their charts look like scary waterpark slides.

Nicolas, I remember you have mentioned this in another post previously concerning another or several ETF. Can't remember. This is very interesting. I see an opportunity here to buy some puts or sell some calls. Thank you for this astute observation

[harryg]

Excellent visual display of MP in action. Notice the trend towards limiting choices and also vehicles in which the average Joe could profit from potential moves.

This winter will provide a clear signal for Europe. If they don't wake up and hang their rulers, then its back to the stone ages; perhaps this trend is unstoppable

I just remembered that the same thing happened with SOIL, the GlobalX Fertilizers/Potash ETF. It was delisted on 21st Aug 2020. Now, look at what the top 3 holdings MOS, OCI, and SQM did since.

(*spoiler*
...
they 3x'ed.)

There's a pattern of ETF listing near tops and delisting near major bottoms. This is to be expected since they answer a demand from crowd-following traders. There's a lot of interest and a lot of management fees to be cashed in at the top, and no business at the bottom.

When URA was created in Nov 2010, it signaled the top of the move in uranium, and it's been a steep fall from Feb 2012 to March 2020.

You need both hands to count the number of Metaverse ETFs that have popped out of nowhere since last year. Their charts look like scary waterpark slides.

Nicolas, I remember you have mentioned this in another post previously concerning another or several ETF. Can't remember. This is very interesting. I see an opportunity here to buy some puts or sell some calls. Thank you for this astute observation

It's an interesting example of the potential of Contrarian Investing.

You won't get an investment vehicle until there is loads of demand, which only comes after price rises and a certain amount of hype.

Then when people get fed up with it and prices fall, ETF delists due to 'lack of interest' (fund is smaller so not enough profit for the managers).

Here is a list for consideration, perhaps someone would like to look at it to see if there is a trend

https://www.etf.com/etf-watch-tables/etf-closures

[nicolas]

It's an interesting example of the potential of Contrarian Investing.

You won't get an investment vehicle until there is loads of demand, which only comes after price rises and a certain amount of hype.

Then when people get fed up with it and prices fall, ETF delists due to 'lack of interest' (fund is smaller so not enough profit for the managers).

Here is a list for consideration, perhaps someone would like to look at it to see if there is a trend

https://www.etf.com/etf-watch-tables/etf-closures

I found another one, and I don't think I could make up a better visual example than this:



I'm using the chart of FSLR as a proxy for the solar energy sector as it's been around since 2006.

Both TAN and the now defunct KWT were listed in April 2008 after a rather epic rise in solar stocks.

The following 5 years were... rough. VanEck threw in the towel in September 2017, after years of sideways consolidation. Then the sector broke to the upside in late 2020 and during 2021. So, GlobalX launched their Solar ETF (RAYS) in September, right on cue for a correction. [Note: FSLR seems to have outperformed its peers over the last 3 months because the ETFs didn't enjoy the same upside.]

I don't know how valuable this would be as a standalone indicator. But it sure looks like a solid data point about sentiment.

If a bunch of ETFs get listed in a recently hot sector, it's probably time to bail.
If the only or one of the major ETFs for a sector shuts down after a long bear market, maybe it should make the "ideas list".