Interim market update April 15, 2022

[SOL]

Bullish sentiment has dropped to 13 an almost unheard of reading and possibly an all time low ( I will have to check our data) but its definitely at a two decade low. That's should be enough to let you know the mindset of the masses. if winning was easy, everyone would be a winner. Only 10% can win and in less than 18 months that ratio is set to drop to 6 or 8%.

Investing is not easy because everyone thinks it is hard and that they need to squeeze as much out of given cycle and that is where many lose because they focus on trying to get more and not on what their risk threshold is. You can't put lip stick on a pig and you can't change a low risk investor into a high risk investor, but humans love to live in the illusory or make belief world where they think they can do anything without taking the time to ascertain what their capacity for risk is. If you have the mindset of a low risk investor than you are asking for pure pain, if you think you can take on higher levels of risk. Take the time to determine what type of trader/investor you are

[bpcw]

Bullish sentiment has dropped to 13 an almost unheard of reading and possibly an all time low ( I will have to check our data) but its definitely at a two decade low. That's should be enough to let you know the mindset of the masses. if winning was easy, everyone would be a winner. Only 10% can win and in less than 18 months that ratio is set to drop to 6 or 8%.

Investing is not easy because everyone thinks it is hard and that they need to squeeze as much out of given cycle and that is where many lose because they focus on trying to get more and not on what their risk threshold is. You can't put lip stick on a pig and you can't change a low risk investor into a high risk investor, but humans love to live in the illusory or make belief world where they think they can do anything without taking the time to ascertain what their capacity for risk is. If you have the mindset of a low risk investor than you are asking for pure pain, if you think you can take on higher levels of risk. Take the time to determine what type of trader/investor you are

Really good advice. I did notice the staggering sentiment figures, expecting a very swift turnaround soon, the majority think the markets are going much lower.

However, you've thrown down a challenge so I'm off to the nearest pig farm with some of my wifes bright blue lipstick to prove you wrong!

[saturdaystreets]

What’s a prudent method to ascertain one’s risk threshold?

[LoriPrecisely]

So, in other words, BUY, BUY, BUY. Am I interpreting that correctly?
I have always regretted not buying Tesla when it was at 400., upon listening to my financial advisor at Bank of America. I think now is my opportunity.

[scott]

What’s a prudent method to ascertain one’s risk threshold?

Lots of places you can make "imaginary" no money involved "portfolios".
Practice, practice, practice, then involve money and practice, practice more.

[AstuteShift]

This is the time to relax, sit and wait and pounce when opportunity presents itself

The masses are running around like chickens with heads chopped off, this is delight for those who know the trend is your friend and everything else is nonsense

[Yodean]

they need to squeeze as much out of given cycle and that is where many lose because they focus on trying to get more and not on what their risk threshold is.

It is said, "always leave a bit of meat on the bone." Sometimes I leave the whole rack of lamb.

[bpcw]

This is the time to relax, sit and wait and pounce when opportunity presents itself

Isn't the opportunity presenting itself now, bulls at 13%?

[AstuteShift]

This is the time to relax, sit and wait and pounce when opportunity presents itself

Isn't the opportunity presenting itself now, bulls at 13%?

Well, we are currently loaded with plays and positions already.

SOL and his team has not lightened up on plays and also the masses are not bullish

You have to assess your risk tolerance as a trader and don’t compare yourself to others. Do how much you’re comfortable with

[LoriPrecisely]

This is the time to relax, sit and wait and pounce when opportunity presents itself

Isn't the opportunity presenting itself now, bulls at 13%?

Well, we are currently loaded with plays and positions already.

SOL and his team has not lightened up on plays and also the masses are not bullish

You have to assess your risk tolerance as a trader and don’t compare yourself to others. Do how much you’re comfortable with

I was thinking the same as bpcw. If stocks are low right now, as in oversold, isn't this the time to buy. Last week, I bought some of the plays that were listed as Buy and Sell, like Microsoft for example. In the MU, first fill was 300, second was 280, third was 273, for an average fill overall of 284. So, last week when Microsoft was 286, I used 3 of my 4 lots to buy shares. This is now at 279, might buy more. MU says close half the position in the 344-349 ranges.

I did the same with TQQQ, which was a new play in February. Average fills were 56, 45, 41. My first purchase was last week, I used 1 of 3 lots to buy @ 52. It has dropped to 47, so now I will consider buying more. MU says close half the position in 84-87 range.

I am just now getting into the market at these prices, but if you already bought these stocks at an earlier date per the MU, then I am assuming that is why you are now just waiting for the prices to rise?

Monday morning I really want to jump on the Tesla train.

[SOL]

So, in other words, BUY, BUY, BUY. Am I interpreting that correctly?
I have always regretted not buying Tesla when it was at 400., upon listening to my financial advisor at Bank of America. I think now is my opportunity.

First, determine your risk threshold and then decide. Individuals with high-risk thresholds could follow the buy buy buy strategy. Lower risk players should advance with some caution as volatility is going to be high. WHy? V readings are in the stratosphere and the monthly charts are still trading in the overbought ranges. Yes, the weekly charts are trading in the extremely oversold ranges.

In the end one needs to understand oneself. Too many traders model themselves around another trader or person they view highly. Well, what you have created is a representative of that person and the representative does not know how to react if things suddenly change as they are just followers. Lead yourself and then trading becomes a game of sorts one in which you can be in control for the most. Yes use other traders and data to help you build a system as you can't do it all alone, but the most vital component of trading comes down to understanding yourself and your risk tolerance. Once you know that it is possible to increase your risk tolerance. I have seen low tolerance players take on extreme risks when the time called for it, but they arrived at that point via self-study, discipline and patience. And when they took on high levels of risk it was done in a controlled manner. Think of investing as a lesson in life, one of the best and most important lessons you could learn comes from the markets, but 99% fail to learn it, yes many of them make money but they learn absolutely nothing.

[bpcw]

This is the time to relax, sit and wait and pounce when opportunity presents itself

Isn't the opportunity presenting itself now, bulls at 13%?

Well, we are currently loaded with plays and positions already.

SOL and his team has not lightened up on plays and also the masses are not bullish

You have to assess your risk tolerance as a trader and don’t compare yourself to others. Do how much you’re comfortable with

I get all this and Sol is saying the same thing, it's a question of the language and words one chooses to communicate the point, sometimes it can come across slightly contradictory.

To say now is the time to sit and wait and pounce when there's an opportunity, read by someone whose just joined could give them the impression to not buy now, whilst I would be advising them to perhaps even load up 50% of their portfolio with some stocks that we are at 2nd or 3rd lots, it's an extraordinary opportunity right now to buy if you are 100% in cash.

Now you're qualifying your statement with the fact that we are already loaded up with positions and bingo things become clearer.

I don't mean to sound critical I'm just trying to help us all with the communication, sometimes it comes across as lazy language, which confuses rather than clarifies. I think it's because some on here are pretty experienced and are clear on their thinking but conveying that in black and white takes care and effort.

Having said that people like you and Yodean don't have to offer anything so I really appreciate you guy's and don't want this to come across as ungrateful, I feel for the newbies more as I can read between the lines now.

[SOL]

Isn't the opportunity presenting itself now, bulls at 13%?

Well, we are currently loaded with plays and positions already.

SOL and his team has not lightened up on plays and also the masses are not bullish

You have to assess your risk tolerance as a trader and don’t compare yourself to others. Do how much you’re comfortable with

I get all this and Sol is saying the same thing, it's a question of the language and words one chooses to communicate the point, sometimes it can come across slightly contradictory.

To say now is the time to sit and wait and pounce when there's an opportunity, read by someone whose just joined could give them the impression to not buy now, whilst I would be advising them to perhaps even load up 50% of their portfolio with some stocks that we are at 2nd or 3rd lots, it's an extraordinary opportunity right now to buy if you are 100% in cash.

Now you're qualifying your statement with the fact that we are already loaded up with positions and bingo things become clearer.

I don't mean to sound critical I'm just trying to help us all with the communication, sometimes it comes across as lazy language, which confuses rather than clarifies. I think it's because some on here are pretty experienced and are clear on their thinking but conveying that in black and white takes care and effort.

Having said that people like you and Yodean don't have to offer anything so I really appreciate you guy's and don't want this to come across as ungrateful, I feel for the newbies more as I can read between the lines now.

It all goes back to a large degree to the suggested reading material. In those articles, the issue of keeping some cash in hand is covered. It is covered in lots but as you and the other guy pointed out we might have to look at it in terms of percentage, but then we would have to create levels for each risk category. The reason we stated it in lots is that if you divide your money into equal lots it gives one a rough idea of how much to keep in cash. But we will add more meat to that article

In terms of buying or not buying. This is also covered in the articles and in the welcome email. New subscribers are informed that they can get into any position that is trading at or below one of the suggested entry points. However, they are encouraged to avoid higher-risk plays (at least in the beginning) unless they are already seasoned, traders.

Again we will provide further clarification but most of these points have already been covered. The only factor remaining is to put it in such a way that even a third-grader could understand it with one read. So we will be spending time re-clarifying many of the points.

As for being critical, it's fine to be critical when it is warranted . Sometimes what is obvious to a seasoned trader is not so obvious to a newbie and the only way to get insights into this is to be open to feedback.

[harryg]

If SOL and team wish to go down the route of a cash position indicator, I would recommend against overcomplicating things with worrying about different types of investor inside the newsletter.

How about a simple:

C = max cash position (bearish)
B = mid position (neutral)
A = min cash position (bullish)

Different investors can then adapt to their investing style - eg: for one person 'C' might be 50% cash, whereas for someone else it might be 100%.

I don't think that it is TI's responsibility to determine that, but if you wished there could be an article with generic levels:

Beginner/Risk-averse: 100% / 75% / 50%
Seasoned/Risk-taker (or as I like to call it, risk-embracer): 50% / 25% / 0%
(These levels are completely made up).

Unfortunately by simplifying we have to skip over lots of important info such as implied time-frame etc, but it could be a start.

[SOL]

If SOL and team wish to go down the route of a cash position indicator, I would recommend against overcomplicating things with worrying about different types of investor inside the newsletter.

How about a simple:

C = max cash position (bearish)
B = mid position (neutral)
A = min cash position (bullish)

Different investors can then adapt to their investing style - eg: for one person 'C' might be 50% cash, whereas for someone else it might be 100%.

I don't think that it is TI's responsibility to determine that, but if you wished there could be an article with generic levels:

Beginner/Risk-averse: 100% / 75% / 50%
Seasoned/Risk-taker (or as I like to call it, risk-embracer): 50% / 25% / 0%
(These levels are completely made up).

Unfortunately by simplifying we have to skip over lots of important info such as implied time-frame etc, but it could be a start.

We are going to keep it simple. As we cannot determine everyone's risk levels nor do we want to attempt such a feat. There is saying if you try to please everyone you will end up screwing everyone. For the most part the biggest reason individuals get in trouble is that they do not take the time to determine their risk tolerance levels. They just assume it will be rosy forever and ever amen. If that were the case everyone would be rich. Investing comes down to being disciplined and having the patience to wait for opportunities based on your risk tolerance levels. Everything comes back to risk tolerance