Interim Market Update Jan 3, 2022

[SOL]

GOOGL Weekly Chart



It is now trading close to the insanely oversold ranges on the weekly charts. The party cannot end without this chap surging to new highs and making everyone believe that it's 1999 again. Pay close attention to this fellow, when it surges to new highs the Nasdaq is likely to leave the Dow and SPX behind. It is quite possible that the Nasdaq moves to the 16,800 to 17,300 ranges with a possible overshoot to 18K and then then HELL will open up with a big red blazing neon sign with the letters HELLO

[MarkD]

Just to be sure, we are talking about the $COMPQ (Nasdaq composite) and not the $NDX (Nasdaq 100).

[Yodean]

Just to be sure, we are talking about the $COMPQ (Nasdaq composite) and not the $NDX (Nasdaq 100).

I am guessing, both.

It's increasingly looking like some sort of "blow-off top" in Q1/2.

Lots of volatility in mid-January ...

[Triplethought]

Just to be sure, we are talking about the $COMPQ (Nasdaq composite) and not the $NDX (Nasdaq 100).

I am guessing, both.

It's increasingly looking like some sort of "blow-off top" in Q1/2.

Lots of volatility in mid-January ...

Yodean if you believe that "blow-off the top" why are you still buying a few options here and there? Shouldn't we slow down on option trading? TIA

[SOL]

Just to be sure, we are talking about the $COMPQ (Nasdaq composite) and not the $NDX (Nasdaq 100).

I am guessing, both.

It's increasingly looking like some sort of "blow-off top" in Q1/2.

Lots of volatility in mid-January ...

Yodean if you believe that "blow-off the top" why are you still buying a few options here and there? Shouldn't we slow down on option trading? TIA

A blow-off top if played correctly can yield massive gains, It is almost like the first rapid move that occurs aftermarket has put in a bottom. However, we will slow down tremendously in terms of options trading with the Trend blazer service, at least call options and we will consider puts or some leveraged funds that short the Dow.

Remember the market can remain irrational for much longer than 99.999% of the players can remain solvent

[Yodean]

Yodean if you believe that "blow-off the top" why are you still buying a few options here and there? Shouldn't we slow down on option trading? TIA

@YoungAnakin:

I always try to account for the possibility that my base case may be terribly wrong - i.e. I don't completely drink my own Kool-Aid.

So, the DOW and S&P500 have recently made new ATHs, and I do expect the Nasdaq to follow in Q1/Q2 - my base case in this instance. But I could be wrong.

There's a "dark temporal zone" starting around mid-January lasting several weeks, and it worries me a tad - don't really want to get into explaining this too much here, as I post a lot of weird-as* stuff as it is - but something to keep an eye on.

Beside asset classes, I also like to diversify investing-trading approaches - so that's what options and the TIT portfolio do for me, i.e. diversification from my non-TIT portfolio.

I don't have a lot of experience with options (anyone with less than five years experience with options trading I consider a noob), so I follow the TIT recommendations, generally.

[chippermon]

I have been charting these, lately, to try and get a feel for them

SPXU
SQQQ
SDOW
SRTY

Potential option plays here too.