Fundamentals

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langdj
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Fundamentals

Post by langdj »

@sol, could you please give your general thoughts on fundamentals? Especially in the context of how we swing trade. My guess is you probably believe that fundamentals are manipulated and overhyped. Yet another way to con the masses. However, I am wondering if there is a point when they are a tie breaker.

I noticed you have some stocks with good fundamentals

HIMX (good demand)
INTEL (good PE)

And some stocks with crap fundamentals
TRIP - (but will rocket after Omincron disappears)

Is there a statistic that you give credence too (e.g PE or Price / Sales)?

To be clear I don't care that you pick stocks with bad fundamentals. My goal is to learn more about your thought process. My superpower is learning how to copy the best experts (in health, exercise, stocks etc) and come up with a hybrid theory that works best for me. However, I still don't have a handle on your views yet :D
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SOL
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Re: Fundamentals

Post by SOL »

langdj wrote: Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:47 pm @sol, could you please give your general thoughts on fundamentals? Especially in the context of how we swing trade. My guess is you probably believe that fundamentals are manipulated and overhyped. Yet another way to con the masses. However, I am wondering if there is a point when they are a tie breaker.

I noticed you have some stocks with good fundamentals

HIMX (good demand)
INTEL (good PE)

And some stocks with crap fundamentals
TRIP - (but will rocket after Omincron disappears)

Is there a statistic that you give credence too (e.g PE or Price / Sales)?

To be clear I don't care that you pick stocks with bad fundamentals. My goal is to learn more about your thought process. My superpower is learning how to copy the best experts (in health, exercise, stocks etc) and come up with a hybrid theory that works best for me. However, I still don't have a handle on your views yet :D
One hybrid system you could work on is if the fundamentals are good to flawless it is a positive sign provided the Technicals are excellent. TA overrules fundamentals.

While we look at supply and demand, etc it does not play a big role. PE and all those other stats only come into play if they are trading in the extreme ranges. What we do pay attention to is unusual insider activity and short interest. If the technical pattern is good then a high short interest is almost a guaranteed sign that there will be a short squeeze sooner than later.
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

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Yodean
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Re: Fundamentals

Post by Yodean »

SOL wrote: Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:41 am What we do pay attention to is unusual insider activity and short interest. If the technical pattern is good then a high short interest is almost a guaranteed sign that there will be a short squeeze sooner than later.
@BossNinja: is the put/call ratio a decent way to assess short interest? If so, what range do you consider heavy short interest? If not, what other metrics do you use to assess the degree of short interest?
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SOL
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Re: Fundamentals

Post by SOL »

Yodean wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 12:48 pm
SOL wrote: Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:41 am What we do pay attention to is unusual insider activity and short interest. If the technical pattern is good then a high short interest is almost a guaranteed sign that there will be a short squeeze sooner than later.
@BossNinja: is the put/call ratio a decent way to assess short interest? If so, what range do you consider heavy short interest? If not, what other metrics do you use to assess the degree of short interest?
Nothing so complex. I prefer to keep it simple. Just go here https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KMB/key ... tics?p=KMB

Image



Look for the short and short % of float; usually, a number above 10% is a good starter the higher the better. . However, one should also look at the total number of shares short and compare it to the daily trading volume. So if the average volume is 1million and 10million shares are short and the stock is trading in the extremely oversold ranges then the odds are above average that the stock could experience a short squeeze. Don't use this formula for crappy stocks. By crappy stocks, I mean total rubbish. Obviously, if this is happening to a good company then it is an even surer beat
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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Yodean
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CFE

Post by Yodean »

SOL wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 7:30 pm Look for the short and short % of float; usually, a number above 10% is a good starter the higher the better. . However, one should also look at the total number of shares short and compare it to the daily trading volume. So if the average volume is 1million and 10million shares are short and the stock is trading in the extremely oversold ranges then the odds are above average that the stock could experience a short squeeze.
Thanks, that was quite a nice contribution to my CFE (Continuing Financial Education).

CRSR appears to be a good example:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRSR/ke ... ics?p=CRSR

Also, oversold on the weeklies and dailies, relatively puny P/E, part of the Gamefy trend. Close to making a double MACD bullish x-over on my weeklies.

:?:
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SOL
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Re: Fundamentals

Post by SOL »

The percentage short of the float is almost 41% that is an unusually high number. It is also trading in the insanely oversold ranges on the weekly charts. Not enough data to come out with a monthly chart
When the words short term appear under any post; the same conditions listed in the Market update under the short term category apply

The end is always near; its the beginning and how you live each moment that counts the most
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