MU, Thanksgiving Edition

[Yodean]

@Sol:

On page 2 of the Nov. 24th MU, the first full sentence reads: "The short to intermediate trend won't change as long as the Dow does not end the week below 38.8K."

Did you mean 34.8K instead of 38.8K?

[SOL]

@Sol:

On page 2 of the Nov. 24th MU, the first full sentence reads: "The short to intermediate trend won't change as long as the Dow does not end the week below 38.8K."

Did you mean 34.8K instead of 38.8K?

Yes too much MB again lol. It would be 34.8K for now bullish sentiment keeps dropping so that is a bullish signal. Happy thanks giving everyone

[harryg]

Thank you for latest edition. Could someone please confirm this for me, saw it before but it's repeated in this one:

So far, the first part is coming to pass. Once the MACD’s complete the bullish crossover, we expect a
mini feeding frenzy that will ultimately pave the way for the next top. Novice traders are about to get
clobbered; (my bold) {...} Market Update Nov 11, 2021

I assume that you are referring to people getting clobbered by panicking during the next correction, not getting clobbered by joining in any Santa rally? I like my Santa rallies, don't spoil it for me. Merci.

[SOL]

Thank you for latest edition. Could someone please confirm this for me, saw it before but it's repeated in this one:

So far, the first part is coming to pass. Once the MACD’s complete the bullish crossover, we expect a
mini feeding frenzy that will ultimately pave the way for the next top. Novice traders are about to get
clobbered; (my bold) {...} Market Update Nov 11, 2021

I assume that you are referring to people getting clobbered by panicking during the next correction, not getting clobbered by joining in any Santa rally? I like my Santa rallies, don't spoil it for me. Merci.

The correction is projected to occur next year, unless we get some sort of black swan event, but black swan events are rare.

[bpcw]

Thank you for latest edition. Could someone please confirm this for me, saw it before but it's repeated in this one:

So far, the first part is coming to pass. Once the MACD’s complete the bullish crossover, we expect a
mini feeding frenzy that will ultimately pave the way for the next top. Novice traders are about to get
clobbered; (my bold) {...} Market Update Nov 11, 2021

I assume that you are referring to people getting clobbered by panicking during the next correction, not getting clobbered by joining in any Santa rally? I like my Santa rallies, don't spoil it for me. Merci.

Yes from what Sol is saying, they'll get carried away with the next rally (santa or otherwise) and won't see the correction coming which Sol expects to occur in the 1st quarter of next year, sentiment indicators will give us a good indicator but my strategy will be to gradually sell into the rally and have plenty of cash for when the correction comes and then gradually start redeploying into the correction after a decent drop, trying to time an exact top is foolish!

[harryg]

Thank you both.

Indeed, to buy in a correction one has to have cash on the sidelines, which for most means selling into the preceding rally.

[Yodean]

Had a question for the TIT (Tactical Investor Team):

In the Thanksgiving MU edition, it was mentioned that one possible technical analysis consideration is that when markets are close to putting in a respective top, the weekly charts exert more influence compared to the monthly charts, and in the final phase of topping action, the daily charts exert the most dominance.

My question is, does this technical analytic consideration apply for bottoming action as well? For example, the entire biotech. sector looks slightly beaten-up and starting to bottom ... should one be more focused on the weekly and daily charts vs. the monthlies?

[SOL]

Had a question for the TIT (Tactical Investor Team):

In the Thanksgiving MU edition, it was mentioned that one possible technical analysis consideration is that when markets are close to putting in a respective top, the weekly charts exert more influence compared to the monthly charts, and in the final phase of topping action, the daily charts exert the most dominance.

My question is, does this technical analytic consideration apply for bottoming action as well? For example, the entire biotech. sector looks slightly beaten-up and starting to bottom ... should one be more focused on the weekly and daily charts vs. the monthlies?

In the bottoming process, the reverse will occur, Daily charts which used to exert the most influence will give in to weekly and then weekly will give in to the monthly charts. However, if the overall market is projected to pull back, then 99% of sectors will follow the markets regardless of how oversold they are, but when the market does bottom, those oversold sectors will move to the screaming buy range and 9 out of 10 times they beat the overall market on the way up

[harryg]

If of use, this is IBB iShares Biotechnology ETF, daily/weekly/monthly in one.

Note: I set monthly to logarithmic scale.

https://ibb.co/FKtXcC4

[Yodean]

In the bottoming process, the reverse will occur, Daily charts which used to exert the most influence will give in to weekly and then weekly will give in to the monthly charts.

Thanks Sol - that hypothesis is quite interesting.

I took another look at the cv19 crash in the winter-spring of 2020.

The RSIs for the Dow, Nasdaq, & SP500 topped in the monthly charts first, followed by the weeklies and then finally the daily charts.

For the bottoms, the reverse was true - RSIs bottomed initially on the daily charts, followed by the weeklies and finally the monthlies.

The pattern was not quite as strong in the MACD Exp. @ standard settings, but it did hold to some degree.

For this particular exercise, I used standard RSI settings with 10y monthlies, 3y weeklies, & 2y daily charts.

[Triplethought]

Had a question for the TIT (Tactical Investor Team):

In the Thanksgiving MU edition, it was mentioned that one possible technical analysis consideration is that when markets are close to putting in a respective top, the weekly charts exert more influence compared to the monthly charts, and in the final phase of topping action, the daily charts exert the most dominance.

My question is, does this technical analytic consideration apply for bottoming action as well? For example, the entire biotech. sector looks slightly beaten-up and starting to bottom ... should one be more focused on the weekly and daily charts vs. the monthlies?

damnit this is not the "tit" question I was hoping to see when I read the title.

[harryg]

damnit this is not the "tit" question I was hoping to see when I read the title.

You have an interest in Telecom Italia too?
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TIT:BIT

[SOL]

damnit this is not the "tit" question I was hoping to see when I read the title.

You have an interest in Telecom Italia too?
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TIT:BIT

@TTH and harryg
both comments cracked me you, T'is good to be able to laugh when others wail, Let's see if Santa is going to rock N roll as opposed to just rolling

[AstuteShift]

Had a question for the TIT (Tactical Investor Team):

In the Thanksgiving MU edition, it was mentioned that one possible technical analysis consideration is that when markets are close to putting in a respective top, the weekly charts exert more influence compared to the monthly charts, and in the final phase of topping action, the daily charts exert the most dominance.

My question is, does this technical analytic consideration apply for bottoming action as well? For example, the entire biotech. sector looks slightly beaten-up and starting to bottom ... should one be more focused on the weekly and daily charts vs. the monthlies?

damnit this is not the "tit" question I was hoping to see when I read the title.

Who doesn’t love a good pair of knockers

[Budge]

damnit this is not the "tit" question I was hoping to see when I read the title.

You have an interest in Telecom Italia too?
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TIT:BIT

Anyone would think he's from Bristol City!